MVP Update: Week 15

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December 15, 2008

MVP Update: Week 15

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The 2008 MVP race is officially insane. Players are moving on and off my list at a dizzying pace. ESPN's top three candidates named just last week by the blog squad now seem quite lame.

Who does that leave us with? I'm still not buying the defensive players. There are too many of them and it seems like there is a different hot name every week. Polamalu did next to nothing yesterday so now we are hearing DeMarcus Ware and Joey Porter. Next week it could be someone else. Let those guys battle it out for DPOY. Right or wrong, that's how it is. I'm looking at the vital offensive players who have been consistently great all season:

1.) Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
Stats: 1581 Yds, 9 TDs, 4.9 Avg, 19 Rec, 109 Yds
Team Record: 9-5, 1st place NFC North
Last Week: 28 carries, 165 Yds, 0 TDs in a win at Arizona
Remaining Games: ATL, NYG

Peterson is the sexy name right now. He's gone over 100 yards in 7 of the past 9 games. His team is putting it together at the right time. His quarterbacks are unreliable. He has a great nickname in Purple Jesus. His downside? He isn't a receiving threat and is only tenth in the league in rushing touchdowns. I still think AP is better suited as offensive player of the year, but we shall see. He has a very tough finishing schedule. Look for the media to build up the game against Turner and the Falcons as the showdown for the MVP. Or maybe just I will. We will be rooting hard for Matt Ryan to throw touchdowns early and often on Sunday. This might kill two birds with one stone: by cooling off the Vikes and further clouding Michael Turner's case for MVP (see below).

2.) Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts
Stats: 23 TDs, 12 INTs, 3543 Yds, 90.3 Rating
Team Record: 10-4, 2nd place AFC South
Last week: 1 TD in a win over DET
Remaining Games: @Jax, TEN

Manning had a brilliant day on Sunday against the Lions, but I dropped him a spot because he broke the cardinal rule of MVPing: Score touchdowns. The last couple weeks I have intentionally over-ranked him because I thought he would put up 6 or 8 touchdowns during this home stand. He threw 4. Good, but not great. Early in the game Dallas Clark caught a ball at the one yard line and later Reggie Wayne went down at the one. Rhodes and Simpson vultured 3 touchdowns. Did those unlucky breaks combined with Manning's selfless play spell the end of Manning's MVP campaign? Probably.

Peyton's argument now rests on the media understanding that a player can dominate a 16-game slate without ever scoring 40 points or throwing 4 touchdowns. Will the media grasp such a nuanced concept? Some will, some won't. Manning's last best hope is that he dominates the Jaguars on quasi-national television. Another reason to be pessimistic? Assuming he beats the Jags, he won't play more than one series in Week 17. Can't risk the starters when you might have to play the following Saturday.

3.) Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons

Stats: 1421 Yds, 15 TDs, 4.3 Avg, 6 Rec, 41 Yds
Team Record: 9-5, 3rd place NFC South
Last week: 32 carries, 152 Yds, 1 TD in a win over TB
Remaining Games: @Min, STL

I threw Turner's name out there about a month ago and he hasn't let me down. Except when it counted. You know, the Fantasy Football Playoffs. Way to show up in the consolation round, jackass. But I digress. Turner is going to have a great look at the MVP, but he'll have to run through the teeth of a tough Vikings defense to earn it. The upside: A Turner MVP gives us another reason to mock AJ smith.

4.) DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers
Stats: 1232 yds, 14 TDs, 5.5 Avg, 22 Rec, 121 Yds
Team Record: 11-3, 1st place NFC South
Last week: 12 carries, 88 Yds, 1 TD in a win over DEN
Remaining Games: @NYG, @NO

DeAngelo is crazy good. Now I remember why I was deliriously angry during the 2006 draft when the Colts missed out on this Memphis talent by just 3 picks. I lost it old-school when he was taken at 27. Does he have a shot to win the MVP? Yup. The perfect stage. Sunday Night Football in a key game against the Giants to decide the NFC. Remember to score a lot of touchdowns, DeAngelo.

5.) Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys
Stats: 24 TDs, 11 INTs, 3013 Yds, 98.3 Rating
Team Record: 9-5, 2nd place NFC East
Last week: 2 TD in a win over NYG
Remaining Games: BAL, @Phi

Romo is back on the list just one week after the Steelers debacle. I couldn't resist. He's a Dallas Cowboy which means someone will vote for him. He is second in the league in QB rating. He has a shot to lead his team to the playoffs despite a brutal December schedule. If he succeeds he might be the MVP. It's a long shot.

Others vaguely in the conversation: Chad Pennington (needs stats and wins), Kurt Warner (needs stats and wins), Matt Ryan (needs stats and wins), Brian Westbrook (needs stats and wins)

Projected Voting: Adrian Peterson - 15 votes. Peyton Manning - 13 votes. Michael Turner 10 votes. DeAngelo Williams - 4 votes. Tony Romo - 3 votes. Eli Manning - 2 votes. Kurt Warner - 2 votes. Brett Favre - 1 vote.

No ties this week. AP wins it narrowly on equal parts talent and hype. The sad truth? I wanted to project Kurt Warner with more votes because I'm not sure the media is paying attention to how bad he's been. If he gets a single vote it will be a crime. I bet he gets more than 5. Hopefully the voters prove me wrong.

Links: A lot of ESPN readers agree with us. So does this random blogger-fan. Clark Judge calls for a Manning MVP. Mike Florio sees the race shaping up like we do. Dan Parr of PFW has moved Manning up seven spots in three weeks. Fox's Adam Schein likes #18 by a hair, but Tony Dungy does not. That might be the first time I've muttered jackass under my breath about our HOF coach. Bucky Brooks notes that Manning's leadership has been impressive.

Commentary: This week JMV of 1260 WNDE joins us with his take on the MVP Race. "If the Colts win out I believe Peyton Manning will win the MVP. Even if his stats don't match up with a couple of the other contenders it will not matter. The Colts will have won 9 straight going into the postseason and Manning has been the biggest reason.

The three main components to Manning winning the award:

1.) Manning has battled the Colts through injuries (his own included)
2.) What have you done for me lately? (No losses since October)
3.) Name recognition. (He is Peyton Manning)

The Race: Peyton Manning, AP, followed by The Rest (Warner, E. Manning, M Ryan, J Delhomme, and D Brees)

Defensive MVP: Ed Reed - Baltimore. In the mix (James Harrison - Pittsburgh, DeMarcus Ware - Dallas)

Coach of the year: Tony Sparano - Miami (1 win last year). Oddly enough this could be Tony Dungy's best coaching year, but he may not be in the top 7 for Coach of the Year."

Tags: 2008, mvp, NFL, Peyton Manning

Discussion

9 Comments on "MVP Update: Week 15"

Posted by Bob M, December 16, 2008 12:00 AM

Still not sure when the voting takes place (and too lazy to research it), but if 18 has a very good showing against Jax (not impossible, but say 3 TDs and a rating north of 110), then two early strikes against a Titans team viewed as monstrously strong on D (less Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch) before putting on the baseball cap, he could wrap it up. Crystal ball warning: Avoid Cortland Finnegan.

I humbly suggest, for fun and cruelty, that you assemble an un-MVP list of guys touted at some point recently as MVP potential guys who are far from it. Like a certain OROY from 2 yrs ago who isn't even starting. Or the flashy runner drafted just ahead of him who... ain't. Leinart. Top-10 draft picks who were can't-miss prospects coming out of college... Winslow Jr.? Or aging superstars who used to merit mention, and still do but only from a few loons. Favre comes to mind. Two weeks of fumbles and mediocrity and Warner will as well. Might be fun. Maybe in the off week, before the super bowl, assuming we are all still visiting this site 4-6 times a day. (paathetic aren't I?) I know I plan to be.

Posted by Anonguy, December 16, 2008 4:09 AM

I was reading through the audibles archive and came acrossed the Pats game, and I lol'd everytime I saw them say the Pats "missed" Maroney. You mean, the guy who's been severely injured since he came into the league? HIM? Yeah.

One day, I dream of an NFL that actually calls holding when it happens, and not when a guy whiffs so horribly on a block and doesn't even stop him WITH the hold. I dream of an NFL, where someone knows what constitutes pass interference. I'd like to be a reciever in the NFL if I can draw flags by tripping over my own two feet and tackling the DB. I dream of an NFL, in which a bad call happens late in a game and the team "victimized" by it doesn't take its ball and goes home a loser. I dream of an NFL where we stop demanding black head coaches be hired solely because there's a high number of black players. I dream of a day when coaching changes are mentioned, that ESPN, the NFL Network and whatever other sports media outlets there flash up graphics of minority candidates. Even when it isn't topical or ratings grabbing, do it. We're out hear, tell us who they are so we can know where these fabled minority head coaches are. I dream of an NFL where the announcers remember that this is football and not baseball, where we spend more time giving good play-by-play and not flubbing over themselves for gimmicks.

I dream of an NFL where one day, MVP will once again mean value, where voters will remember that they can honor the statistical achievments seperately for their respective side of the ball. I dream of an NFL where there is competent analysis for both the games and the draft. I dream of an NFL where the words "Scouts. Inc" and Mel Kiper Jr." are never uttered in any serious manner. I dream of an NFL where we remember the veterans while not forgetting what the present atheletes have done for the game as well.

I'm just a football fan with a simple dream, someone who just wants his football unfettered by the morons who are a bunch of loudmouth know nothings.

Besides all that, I voted in the MVP threat poll for Adrian Peterson due to the massive love he gets from ESPN. I think the case can be made that what AP did is impressive offensively, but he isn't as valuable as Manning. He ran for a 150 yards on the Colts and 0 TDs, while Peyton shook off 2 INTs to lead the Colts to a win. In the end though, if there is a miracle, maybe voters will wake up yo see that Peyto is the 2008 NFL MVP.

Posted by djcolts, December 16, 2008 9:21 AM

About the point that the Colts need to win both games to win MVP - well, that means he won't win MVP, then. If the Colts win on Thursday, then Manning will probably play only a series or two against the Titans. And, since the Colts would have to play on WC weekend, I can't argue with that logic at all.

The guy that "controls his destiny" for MVP is not Peyton, it is A Peterson. If the Vikings win the next two games (against two quality foes in the Falcons and Giants) and he does really well, I think the award is his. And, I'd have no problem with that - it wouldn't be an award based on writers' ignorance like some other of the recent MVP front-runners.

Posted by Demond Sanders, December 16, 2008 9:27 AM

Correct DJ. And that's more or less what I wrote in the column.

Posted by DJCOLTS, December 16, 2008 10:54 AM

I was disagreeing with JMV's take, that Manning needs to win both games - since that isn't going to happen

Posted by Deshawn Zombie, December 16, 2008 11:02 AM

I don't think it's a forgone conclusion that the Colts lose to the Titans, even with a win this week. I'm sure they'll sit some players, but I would expect the offense to play the whole game. They still aren't in sync and need the game time. The Titans lost Haynesworth and they also might not have anything to play for. It's a little early to chalk that game up as a loss.

Posted by Bob M, December 16, 2008 1:28 PM

A few items: Dungy will never win COTY. Just not gonna happen. There will always be some guy who lucks into the right situation (and is good enough) to take a team from 3-13 to 12-4 the next year and he will win, or a coach whose team has "inferior talent" who will win it. Dungy's team is looked on as being too talented, IMHO. He deserved it last year for all the injuries we had, and probably a few other times as well.

BB won it last year? Well, 16-0 is a pretty big deal, no doubt about it, but when your offense is throwing bombs when they're up by 21 in the 4th, I am sorry, that is not what they teach at Coaching U. Douchebag State, yes.

If Manning gets a couple TDs (still needs a few more of those to win, IMO) early against the Titans and is pulled after that, I don't know if a win OR loss will matter to the voters--he did what he had to and couldn't very well win a game he was pulled from. He WILL need a win and a few TDs vs the Jags as well as the Tites. (I'd think he'd need at least 28 total--there'll be a couple guys over 30 TDs and a playoff apperance of two between them, so a voter doesn't want to look stupid when this is pointed out).

Anonguy, you have some big dreams, but I think holding as it was known just a few years ago is dead and buried. OPI/DPI too.... I suppose D-minded foks were outraged at the end of civilization when the "grasp and control" rule was instituted and life continued. Adapt and survive. They whine about defenders not being able to do anything and the league favoring QBs and scoring.... I never complained about it much, except now with the holding issue. Maybe I'd be more ticked if they called all the holding penalties by the book--hello 4-hour games!

Posted by Bob M, December 16, 2008 1:34 PM

RE Week 17 versus tennessee: Also, let's not forget they are playing their "game of the decade" in Week 16 versus the Steelers. Win or lose, they will be pummelled, battered, and spent afterwards, emotionally and physically. Very understandable for them to mentally coast a bit into the playoffs. Fisher will be on top of this, but....
I only wish Haynesworth was playing next week. Without him, they lose and will be more fired up for Week 17. If they had a win over Pitt in Week 16, they'd be "ripe for the picking" in Week 17 (to use a Vanderjagtian phrase). (Okay, I guess it's time to get liquored up and fire myself then exile me to Canada, eh?)

Posted by Westside-Rob, December 16, 2008 2:37 PM

The Star poll last week had Warner as the leading vote getter among MVP voters who responded, with PM second (I think) so hopefully that would indicate a pro-QB bias among eligible MVP voters which would work in PM's favor.

I think the main factor might be how AP plays the next 2 weeks. Min is home vs ATL, which though ATL's run def is below average, they can put points on the board which means potentially Min might not be able to run as much.

Then home against the G-men which might still be an important game to NYG in terms of playoff seeding and who have a top 5 defense.

If AP is average or below Average and PM is at least solid to above average, I'd hope the voters would see the truth of the matter and forget about how sick they are of all the PM commercials and vote for the most deserving guy: Peyton Manning.