Introducing: Old Manning

This is the first in a multi-part series this week that will seek to answer the question: What can we expect from Peyton Manning over the next few years?

Everyone knows that over the past six seasons, Manning has won three MVP awards and a Super Bowl. Now that he's one of the elder statesmen of the NFL QB club, many have wondered aloud if Manning's best days might soon be behind him. No one is expecting a slowdown in 2009, but might we see one not long after?

It's impossible to know of course, but we can look at the careers of other greats of the game and gain an idea of what 18's final few seasons might look like.

In order to get a fair sampling, I've used the "Similar Players" list on Profootballreference.com as a guide. I've taken some liberties (I took the top 9 that he's most similar to through 11 seasons, and added Steve Young who is second in similarity to Manning for their careers) in assembling my sampling. The result is a solid class of Hall of Fame quarterbacks comporable to Peyton.

That list is: Johnny Unitas, Dan Marino, Brett Favre, Steve Young, Roger Staubach, Joe Montana, Warren Moon, Jim Kelly, Dan Fouts, and John Elway.

Not all these players are the same style of QB as Manning, and not all have played in the same era. Still, it gives us a baseline to work with. Over the course of the next few days I'll examine how these QBs fared after age 33 to see what we can learn about possible future seasons for Mr. Manning.

Today, we'll start with something easy:

Is it likely that Manning will play in another Super Bowl?

Now obviously, this question has much more to do with the Colts as a team than with the play of just the quarterback, but it still merits investigating if HoF quarterbacks have any history of leading their teams to championship games late in their careers.

The Data:

Player	Conference Championship Games	Super Bowls
Unitas	3	2
Young	3	1
Montana	3	1
Marino	0	0
Favre	1	0
Moon	0	0
Fouts	0	0
Elway	2	2
Staubach	3	3
Kelly	1	1

As you can see from this list, 7 of the 10 QBs managed at least a conference championship appearance after their 33rd birthday, and 6 made at least one Super Bowl appearance. Three of them went to multiple Super Bowls after their 33rd birthdays.

It's hardly a large sampling, nor is it scientific evidence, I admit, but it is encouraging data. Should Manning's career continue to follow a similar path that of the 10 QBs he's most like, the odds are good that he will make at least one more Super Bowl appearance before he's done. At the very least, there is ample evidence that great QBs older than 33 have guided their teams deep into the playoffs before.

Tomorrow we'll look at the 10 legends and try to project Manning's quarterback rating arc for the rest of his career.

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Awesome idea!
written by Bob M, August 11, 2009

In a non-statistical way, my imporession is probably one more year at the peak and a gradual decline for 4 years. He has always said he'd like to play to 38, IIRC.

Keys: LT (enough said this week, and then some) and RB. I think our receiver corps, as built and likely to evolve will serve him well. I think Joe and The Donald COULD be very conducive to extending his peak--if these guys manage 2,000 rushing yards combined and another 500 receiving, PM should have golden years indeed. If Addai really is kaput, then that's a lot f weight on Don's shoulders. If the LT slot really is weak, well.... But LT aside, I think the OL with last year's youngsters, the RB position, and the receivers are all solid and should be for the next few years. That bodes well for PM's health, play-calling mix, and stats. As far as SBs are concerned, the D is also looking good. They have the potential obviously, so it comes down to health and competiton. I still think he gets one more win, maybe 1-2 more appearances total in the big game.

What I HAVE left out of course is coaching. This week has made me a little uneasy about that, but in Bill I trust. All others pay cash.

...
written by DemondSanders, August 12, 2009

I had a vision of Manning playing into this 40s. Then Charlie Johnson was named the starting Left Tackle. Now I have visions Peyton and Joe Theisman standing next to each other surrounded in blue light like Yoda and Obi-wan.