Old Manning Part 2: Attempts

Buy Blue Blood

Daily Links

Hit Squad 2

Bloguin MLB Power Rankings

Will Carroll's Injury Update

Simmon's QB Rankings

Colts insider preview

ESPN Colts preview

Peter King previews Colts

Polian talks about the new rule

Sharpe and Simms on WISH

Guys on bubble need a big night

Five Story lines for Bengals

The undrafted gem?

Preseason numbers and what they mean

"Holding him accountable"

Worst HS plays in history

Does Farve fear Peyton?

Saturday hopes to be back

This shouldn't be a problem! (must read)

His return is big

Yes, he was that good

Final preseason Mag 7

Three have a lot on tomorrow's game

Hughes to get more time

Periera says Manning will have to adjust

New trend in line play

AccuScore Season Forecast

Daily Links RSS

RSS for the Daily Links

Old Manning Part 2: Attempts

Written by Nate Dunlevy

Wednesday, 12 August 2009 09:02

I know I promised a look a touchdowns and interceptions yesterday, but I think the discussion will make more sense if we start with a look at attempts per season. The bottom line with aging quarterbacks is staying healthy enough to stay on the field.

Each of the 10 QBs selected (see yesterday's post) played through age 36. Seven were still playing at age 38. 3 by 39, 2 by 40, and only Warren Moon played past age forty (he played until 44 years old, though only saw a full season of play once after age 40). Currently, we are guessing that Manning plays until 2014, when he will break most of Brett Favre's records. I can't see him quitting at age 37, needing just one more season to take some of the most illustrious records of all time away from Favre.

Of the 10 QBs in question, injuries took a toll. Johnny Unitas was never fully healthy after age 34. Steve Young played until he was 38, but lost parts of three of his last four seasons. Joe Montana lost almost 2 full years at age 35, before coming back at age 37. Dan Marino was banged up two of his final four years in the league. Still, of the QBs who suffered lost or partially lost seasons due to injuries after the age of 33 (Young, Montana, Marino, Fouts, Elway), most came back to be successful again. Only Unitas (again, very different era) got hurt and was never the same.

The stunning thing about all the quarterbacks on the list, is that other than Unitas and Moon, the end came quickly. Eight of them posted a season of at least 430 attempts one year before retiring. Staubach, Montana, and Favre all posted at least 460 attempts in their final season.

Manning has always been a high volume passer and bears a lot of similarity wtih Marino and Favre in that respect. Favre never threw fewer than 471 times after age 33. Four of Marino's final six seasons saw him throw the ball over 480 times. In two other seasons, he battled injuries, but still threw at least 369 times both seasons.

So, what can we take from this? We know that injuries can hit any player at any time. We also know that Manning has a suspect offensive line. So we knock on a serious amount of wood as we draw these conclusions:

1. Manning is likely going to throw the ball a lot right up until the end. In terms of passing attempts, there's more of a cliff than a gradual decline. Most of the big time passers kept flinging it until they left the league.

2. Manning is likely to play to at least age 38. Most of the greats retired at that age. It would take him through the 2014 seasons which would be enough to pass Favre's consecutive start streak (should he stay healthy).

3. In terms of playing time, we won't see the end coming. The greats kept throwing until the end. Once they couldn't be the man, they walked away. The exceptions were Warren Moon, who started in the NFL much later than other great QBs, and Johnny Unitas.

4. Even if he does get hurt, he can still come back to have fine seasons. Many QBs in the modern era have done so.

Tomorrow: TDs and Ints (I promise)

(note: this will be compiled and posted in the articles sidebar upon completion of the series)

Comments (15) Add Comment

Subscribe to this comment's feed

Interesting series and post
written by psvirsky, August 12, 2009

I'm a big fan of this. It's interesting to look at similar careers to see what we can expect, rather than just make random guesses. This makes me feel better too.

Seems about right
written by Bob M, August 12, 2009

Keep 'em coming. This is good stuff. Particularly heartening is that if he does get an injury that knocks him out for 6-8-16 games, he's likely to bounce back with age not necessarily being a major factor. (Last year was a good example, but none of us really thought of him as "hurt." More like "recovering"...

All it needs now is some sort of graphics with lines plotting ATTs, COMPs, TDs, INTs, Ws, Rating, etc with each data set colored according to it's QB's uniform. (Young and Montana, Unitas and Manning, slug it out).

...
written by DZ, August 12, 2009

Re: charts

I've been working on that. It's complicated because I have so many QBs. I haven't found a way to make it look good and be informative. I'm not giving up though. Maybe for tomorrow.

Brady the Model
written by Bob M, August 12, 2009

I hope this certainly causes a heap of excrement to fall TB's way....

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/32379703/ns/sports-nfl/

...
written by J.C., August 13, 2009

He has a suspect offensive line?

Don't you guys spend a majority of your blogging time fellating Bill Polian?

Why is their line so suspect? Do they draft poorly? Do they fail to adequately address their apparent lack of depth via free agency?

Why does their line blow when their #1 priority is the health of Peyton?

Every time I ask that question, you never answer it.

So answer it.

Also, the new site sucks. Does s u cks get starred out? If it does, that sucks.

The Patriots are going to be sick this year.

I know you always say 'I don't fear Brady like I fear Roethlisberger' but Ben never threw 50 TD's and he doesn't even have close to the 53 man roster we're gonna roll out on everyone.

August 13th, 2009 - Mark it down in the dumb ass archives.

Leigh Bodden
Derrick Burgess
Terrence Wheatley

Those three players make our defense ridiculous and we're gonna blow you pussies off the map in November.

OL
written by Bobman, August 13, 2009

JC,
I am no fan of the new site, but at least "sucks" makes it through just fine.

Regarding the OL, my two cents are this: injuries, which one cannot officially complain about, but they happen. Look at Indy and Jacksonville last year--both OLs were crushed by multiple injuries. Indy had decent depth, though mostly rookies, who should help make the line better this year.

The reason it is NOW suspect (and it was not considered as such, at least here, just a week ago), was the peculiar coaching decision to move a 2nd round pick LT, who had a very good rookie year but a bad soph campaign marred by injuries, and who had been roundly praised by coaches and teammates alike all spring and summer, to a backup role. WTF?

We had been led to believe he was improving and assuming normal health elsewhere, we'd be solid. Perhaps even good, with decent depth assisted by last year's 28 starts by non-starters. Now we're not sure what to think. Ergo, suspect. Particularly when it's at a key spot like LT. Plus the brothers absolutely hate the current starting LT.

Getting to your points, what did the coaching staff/front office know and when did they know it? Are they now, or have they ever been complete idiots? If Ugoh is a bust, they're just figuring it out now?!?! How about before draft day??? Wait, asking more questions doesn't really answer yours, does it?

We have some reason to believe that Ugoh's benching is a motivational ploy, in which case we're no longer suspect on the OL, just in the coaching methods department.

But for now, and for safety's sake, call the OL suspect and blame the front office. There's a pretty good chance both those issues will shape up inside a month. He'll be decent again and the FO will be geniuses once more.

And I am not sure if DZ/DS say that about Roethlisberger/Brady, but I have said it often since 2006. 2007 put a crimp in that a bit (you think?) but I'll stand by it. Much of that is Ben's improvisational skills to pull something out when it all goes to s**t. Last year he won a SB with a poor OL performance all season, and a below-average run game. Yes, his D was monstrous, like yours in 2003/2004, but whenever I see him, he tends to pull crap out of thin air just when I think he's got to give up and tuck the ball, or throw it away. Maybe it's just the type of game he plays, as opposed to Brady's more traditional pocket-passer type of game. The greater my frustration with Ben (along the lines of "we got him! we got him! we got him--holy crap, how'd he do that?!", the greater my worry. With Brady, I figure if we can get to him, we're okay.

Okay, now the f-ing site won't accept my name--it's been registered. Yeah, by freakin' me!

Cheers,
-Bob M

the line
written by DZ, August 13, 2009

It was good in 2006. Then the drafted Tony Ugoh to play for a year before becoming the LT. But current LT Tarik Glenn retired unexpectedly, so they wound up with a rookie LT in 2007, and in addition, the RT got hurt too. Hard to win with no tackles.

So in the 2008 draft, they drafted 5 OL linemen. Unfortunately, 4 of the 5 projected starters went down with injury. Some of the rookies got hurt too, so when they played, they played badly.

So, now flash forward to 2009. Everyone thinks, Ok, the line is fixable. They have a 2 2nd round picks that have to play well, but that's a reasonable expectation. Now, one of them gets inexplicably demoted in favor of a guy who sucks.

So, this would be it. If Tony Ugoh doesn't regain his starting job, Bill Polian effed up in drafting him. It would be his first massive draft mistake in 10 years.

Happy?

Cool Topic
written by Doug England, August 13, 2009

Since no two QBs are exactly alike, in your opinion, what will ultimately undo Manning? If in Manning's case he continues to take care of himself and he maintains his remarkable durability, what about him specifically will start to diminish? Will he lose arm strength regardless of how he trains or will the mental grind catch up with him?

...
written by DZ, August 13, 2009

Let me do the whole series first and I'll answer that at the end.

Sorry to jump the gun
written by Doug England, August 13, 2009

10-4

Ugoh
written by Westside-Rob, August 13, 2009

Based on what I read in Peter King's recent article on the Colts, I think the move of Ugoh to RT is a permanent change. The Colts likely agree that Ugoh is more talented that CJ. But when you feel that your LT takes 5-6 plays off a game you can't afford to put that on your QB's blindside. At least when Ugoh takes a play off at RT Peyton should see it coming. CJ may not be as good, but they know what they got, and they can scheme for his overall level of weakness. Whereas with Ugoh you never know when he might take the play off, so do you constantly scheme to that with assistance from TE's and RB's? Which you may not need on 90% of the plays? I think the Colt's know that Diem is near the end of his career, and will likely not make it through the whole season healthy. They think Ugoh is talented enough to excel at Tackle in the NFL but is a liability 4-6 plays a game and figure they are better off moving that liability from the blindside to the right side. I'm convinced more than ever this is NOT a Ploy, and short of CJ getting hurt Ugoh will stay at RT or as the backup. What will be really telling is if CJ would get hurt, do they move Ugoh or bring in one of the other subs to play LT and leave Ugoh at RT? That move would clearly end all speculation in my opinion.

...
written by DemondSanders, August 13, 2009

It is way too early to be certain of anything regarding the Ugoh demotion. My gut says Ugoh will be back at LT before October. My head knows nothing.

I was correct about one thing: this decision was made many months ago and Ugoh has had a chance to stew.

The coaches will want to see the guys in their new roles in a game situation before deciding anything. I think all the pressure is on CJ, personally. But that's just my opinion.

...
written by Bob M, August 13, 2009

Doug,
That is interesting in and of itself... I don't know that I have ever followed any QB close enough to be able to say what "went" on him... arm, legs, decision making, confidence, etc. Clearly sometimes it's obvious--my old hero, Bert Jones, blew out his arm and was never the same. I guess legs are the most obvious if it's a super mobile guy like Randall Cunningham. But Favre--what, if anyhting is different about him now than five years ago? If he was in pads, he'd still be a "gutsy, strong-armed, gunslingin', poor-decision-making potential turnover machine who just likes to have fun out there." That phrase is probably trademarked by now.

I don't know that I ever paid attention to their throwing motions, etc to see how they changed over the years. I generally just figured "they got old" and slower and weaker and less driven as time went on and, well, could no longer compete at a high level. But clearly, not everything falls apart at once. My assumption with 18 has always been, since his game is more cerebral than most (use McNair as a comparison), that he'll be better at age 38 than most of his peers (if he has any). If he loses a step, his super-brain will compensate. If he loses arm strength, he'll manage to finish out the season with shorter passes, and then retire without anyone really seeing it. If he loses his drive, I suspect we'll never know it because he'll hang 'em up that very day and we'll never see an apathetic 18 on the field.

Rob, NEVER believe what Peter King says, unless you are looking for airport latte reviews. Your post scared the hell out of me. I hope you are wrong. The reason I am scared is because maybe you are right.

King-Ugoh
written by Westside-Rob, August 13, 2009

DZ I never believe what King has to say in terms of analysis. He realistically couldn't analyze his way out of a paper sack.

HOWEVER, he is good at getting inside scoops from NFL types and I believe that what he wrote was a indirect quote from someone inside the Colts org. Probably Polian himself, as we know King and Polian had a long lunch with those two fans, and King and Polian seem to be "chummy" or at least as chummy as Polian gets with media types.

I hope I'm wrong too but I really don't think I am. The more I think about it the more I'm afraid I'm right. Injuries can obviously throw all of this out the window but I think you'd better get use to a life of CJ at LT.

If Ugoh really is a guy who's taking 5-6 plays off a game. I don't think that's something he's capable of fixing in himself. It's not an attitude thing it's a mental concentration and focus thing. You can't change how smart you are and you can't really change how good you are at maintaining focus. It's just part of your mental and physical makeup. Maybe they should put him on an A.D.D. drug like Stratera or something.

CJ is your starting LT and barring injury I don't think that is going to change, and certainly not quickly. If they changed this because Ugoh was taking 5-6 plays off per game wouldn't you want to see him maintain full concentration for a good 4-5 games before you'd risk him at LT again? CJ may break down but it's going to be because he got beat. They can scheme to help him with RB's and TE's when he's facing the Mario Williams' of the league. He's a good run blocker so having him at LT might help improve our running game. I'm coming around to the idea and I think we just accept this new reality and hope that a lesser player with more consistency (who for the first time is starting the year in that role and has a full pre-season to adjust and prepare) will be better than what we had last year. It may not be but I think we're just going to have to sit back and accept it.

...the truth is now evident
written by Doug England, August 13, 2009

Finally... I understand. Peyton says he likes to get hit at least once in pre-season to get ready for the regular season. What better way to ensure this happens than... hello CJ at left tackle.