Painting in a corner
Written by Deshawn Zombie   
Sunday, 30 August 2009 07:25

Sixth round pick Curtis Painter has impressed all of us this preseason.  Many Colts fans are wondering if Jim Sorgi's job as backup to Peyton Manning might be in serious jeopardy.  Sorgi has missed all three preseason games with an injury, giving Painter plenty of time to show off his arm.  There has been plenty to like:

  • He has a big arm.  He delivers the ball with authority.
  • He doesn't look panicked, rushed, or lost.
  • He keeps his eyes downfield even when rushed.

The Colts have a decision to make.  There are two reasons to keep a backup quarterback:

1.  Manning might get hurt
2.  You might be able to develop the younger QB into a commodity for trade

Here's what's NOT an issue:  finding the future replacement for Manning.
Peyton has at least five, if not six more years left.  That's far too far in the future to be worrying about who's going to take over when he's gone.  Barring a catastrophic injury, neither Jim Sorgi nor Curtis Painter have any shot at being the regular starting QB for the Colts.

Issue #1 is the primary concern.  The question is how big a concern is it? We all know that Manning has only missed one snap in his career.  Most likely, he's not going down, but this is the NFL and anything is possible.  So which QB should the Colts have more confidence in right now to take over for 18?  Fans won't like the answer, but it's clear:

Sorgi.  The least popular backup QB in the NFL.

Let's look at the numbers:

In the last two games Painter has been at the helm for 11 drives.  He's put up four field goals and no TDs.  For the preseason, he is 30 for 50, for 338 yards, and 2 picks.  That's a rating of 63.6.

Sorgi on the other hand, has a career NFL rating of 89.9 in the regular season. Sure, he doesn't excite anyone, and his ceiling is limited, but he has played acceptably in the regular season.

He has never actually performed well in the preseason in any of his years with the team, leading me to believe there must be something else about him that the coaching staff likes based on what they see in practice.

Sorgi's first preseason in 2004, he was 15 for 30 for 111 and a pick. 
In 2005, he posted a 58 rating (46/90, 512, 1 TD, 3 INT)
In 2006, he was hurt most of the preseason.  He was 7 for 19 with a pick.
In 2007, he posted a rating of 76.8 (52/87, 480, 3, 2)
In 2008, he was hurt most of the preseason.

For the Colts the issue is risk.

The safest play is to keep both QBs.  The problem is that it would cost a roster spot the Colts might need later.  If they keep Painter initially, but have to cut him later, it will be a signal to other teams they thought he was worth keeping.  That raises the likelihood someone else scoops him up.

If they cut Sorgi and keep Painter, they are betting that Manning won't get hurt.  If he does get hurt, Sorgi is better equipped to run the team.  Remember, that the only reason to keep Painter is if the Colts believe he can develop enough that in three years they can trade him.  Cutting Sorgi is a gamble on Manning's health and the future trade-ability of Painter.

If they cut Painter and keep Sorgi, they have to hope that he clears waivers and they can resign him to the practice squad.  This is the ideal scenario for the Colts.  Painter can work and develop for another year, and he'll be the odds on favorite to be the 2010 #2 QB.  If they cut Painter, and he's picked up by another team, then they essentially wasted a 6th round pick (which isn't the end of the world).

Curtis Painter is all upside.  He has a good arm.  He seems to have the moxy necessary to play in the NFL, but he is raw.  Can the Colts take a chance at cutting an established backup for a kid who has never led a TD drive in the preseason?  I don't think so.

Then again, betting on Peyton Manning isn't a bad way to go either.

(Feel free to vote on this issue in the poll to the left)


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Comments (28)Add Comment
My issue is this...
written by Darth Goofy, August 30, 2009
... you state that Painter has bad stats this preseason and Sorgi should be kept because he has better stats in the regular season. However, you then go on to say that Sorgi doesn't perform well in the preseason either. Therefore, why wouldn't it be the same for Painter? I know that there is no proof that Painter is better than Sorgi, but it seems that Painter has out-performed Sorgi in preseason stats that you list... considering that this is Painter's first year and Sorgi's 23rd.
...
written by DZ, August 30, 2009
I said:
"He (Sorgi) has never actually performed well in the preseason in any of his years with the team, leading me to believe there must be something else about him that the coaching staff likes based on what they see in practice."


Painter didn't "out perform Sorgi" in the preseason. Sorgi barely played in 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2009. In 2005 Sorgi and Painter were roughly the same.
In 2007 Sorgi was much better than Painter.

Painter has 'looked' good, without actually being good. The Colts haven't scored a TD with him as QB. On the other hand, Sorgi has a history that includes modest regular season production.

It's all about risk. Does it matter that Painter has slightly better stats in his first preseason than Sorgi did in 2004 or 2005? No. It only matters if Painter is better right now than Sorgi.

No TD drives and a rating of 63.6 in three games makes it difficult for me to believe that's true.

I have no trouble believing that in a year Painter will be better than Sorgi. I just don't think there's much evidence it's true right now.

mr clipboard
written by strandedincarolina, August 30, 2009
I agree with everything you are saying. There is no chance Sorgi gets cut in favor of Painter this year. Painter is not the best number 2 on the team. I do look at his upside and traits we mentioned and see him being better than Sorgi next year. With injuries to the secondary, and poor performance of the D, I do think they'll have to take their chances by leaving him off the roster and trying to place him on the practice squad.
So,
written by Cass, August 30, 2009
what you would do if you were Polian, DZ, is cut Painter with the final (to 53) roster cuts and try to sign him to the practice squad. Am I reading that right?

If so, then I agree. I can't see us wasting us a roster spot keeping a 3rd QB, especially when our #1 QB is so durable. I think we have to gamble that Painter will clear waivers. It's a double-or-nothing situation.
Are you drinking the Kool-Aid
written by tjbindy, August 30, 2009
I read your article and wonder if it was written in Jest.

Lets face it .. .If Peyton goes down and Sorgi is the starting QB going into the game . . . put the game in the L column. Doesn't matter whom they play . . it is a loss.

Now lets look at Painter. If he started .... . it is probably only 50 / 50 they can win. But thats better than 0% chance for Sorgi. Sorgi has had chances and has played miserably EVERY time. The offense looks more like the Rockettes when he plays .. you know . . 1, 2, 3, Kick .. 1, 2, 3, Kick.

Best thing that happened to Sorgi is that he got hurt this preseason. That way there was no direct comparison possible between him and Painter. I wasn't a Painter fan, but he has won me over.
...
written by LukeM, August 30, 2009
He's shown a lot of potential, and the Colts considered him a rare find during the Draft.

I think Painter is the QB of the future. They'll keep three on the roster this year, because Sorgi is still a better option, but next year or in two years, they'll drop Sorgi and just keep two again. Then he'll get signed to a second contract and become the starter when Peyton leaves.
I've always defended Sorgi in the past.
written by coltsfanawalt, August 30, 2009
However, I am starting to feel different this time. We can't compare Painter's regular season with Sorgi's, as Painter has none. However, I wonder what he would do out there with the first team offense. We know what both have done in preseason, and I think Painter is already showing he's a better option. Rookie season versus rookie season, I saw both and I like Painter better already. If we're using more recent Sorgi numbers to bolster Sorgi, then we have to hold the most recent numbers to indict Sorgi. Namely, two consecutive preseasons of injury. During his chances to play, he has not. Same with much of '06.

I passionately advocated Sorgi over Gray and Lorenzen last year, as in I felt they should only keep Sorgi. However, this year I think we hold onto Painter. If he continues to improve, then Sorgi walks next season. As far as cutting another player, so be it. We will cut some of them the next year anyhow with the new rookie additions. Let's get a more quality backup QB if possible.
Sorgi concern
written by coltsfanawalt, August 30, 2009
I wonder if some team would glean valuable information from Sorgi if they signed him. That though scares me, but perhaps it's a silly thought.

On another note, why do some people always refer to drinking the koolaid when they don't agree with another? Not referring to the comment above only, but I've seen that a lot this year it seems. Whenever someone holds an opinion that some others agree with but I don't, does that necessarily mean that they're "dinking the koolaid"? Or perhaps am I just drinking a different flavor of koolaid myself? Or maybe none of us are that inspired by Jim Jones, anyhow. Even with his Hoosier heritage.
...
written by DZ, August 30, 2009
I'm not drinking any Cool-aid. I just don't feel that a rookie with a 63 QB rating in the preseason has done enough to unseat a long term veteran with a regular season rating of 89.

Painter has lead ZERO TD drives. What has he done other than throw the ball hard and look vaguely competant.

If Sorgi starts a game, the Colts have little chance to win. They do, however, have some chance. He's at least faced live NFL fire.

If Painter starts, they have ZERO chance. He's a rookie playing against second and third string vanilla defenses and he's posted no TD drives and a rating of 60.

Painter has looked good without being good. His only long term value to the Colts is if they can turn him into future picks via a trade. That's too remote a possibility for me to favor cutting Sorgi at this point.

My eyes tell me Painter might have a future in the league. The numbers tell me that future is still a long way off.
You haven't answered my question, DZ.
written by Cass, August 30, 2009
Are you advocating cutting Painter and gambling that we can get him on the practice squad (a double-or-nothing scenario), or are you wanting the Colts to keep 3 QB's on the roster this season (while being assured that Painter isn't going anywhere)?

For the record, my vote is for cutting Painter and hoping that he can clear waivers (which is entirely possible).
...
written by DZ, August 30, 2009
Until I saw that the Pats cut their backup QB, I would have said cut him. Now, I fear the Pats would pick him up just to spite the Colts.

The odds that someone loves Painter enough to keep him on an NFL roster all season are nil. I think Colts fans are too high on him. Most teams will look at his lack of production, and may have interest but not enough to waste a roster spot on him all season.

Even if he gets picked up by another team, he'll be available at some point down the road.

I think cutting him is the safer bet, but I would understand if they keep him around.

Ultimately, I don't care very much and pray it doesn't matter. This is a decision that will only effect the team in the short run if something goes horribly wrong.
...
written by Scott P, August 30, 2009
I hope they keep Painter but it seems that Sorgi is unflushable. I think Painter has played well enough to draw interest from other teams when the Colts cut him-- which is too bad because Polian surely wants to keep him on the practice squad.

Painter has been out there with backups all preseason & can't be faulted for dropped passes (Mathews, Garcon) & phantom holding calls negating TD's (Ron Winters' crew).

So while I wasn't expecting much from Painter, he's looked pretty darn good. But I still don't understand why Polian drafts a QB knowing that he will cut him & keep Sorgi like he always does. Why not hope for Painter to go undrafted & then sign him as a FA?
...
written by DZ, August 30, 2009
The fact that they drafted him may well be the clue they won't cut him. Or they just wanted to start a relationship with the player. Remember, that once they cut him, another team can claim him, but only to keep him on the roster. If he's a free agent picking between teams that want him for the practice squad only, he'd be wise to pick Indy where he knows they like him.

Again, I'm not sure that a 6th round pick with a 63 rating is going to stir up much interest.
...
written by C Biscuit, August 31, 2009
I agree with much of what Scott P. states. I'd add that even the regular season games Sorgi has played in none of them were meaningful, thereby making them glorified exhibitions themselves. Sorgi has not bore the weight of having the team depend on him. He is still untested in that way. Painter has surprised me as well with his accuracy and the authority of his throws. It just looks like he belongs out there. Arm strength is a very overrated aspect of quarterbacking but Sorgi fluttering the ball about has nevertheless always made me nervous.
Scott P
written by DemondSanders, August 31, 2009
Painter was out there throwing to scrubs, but he was also playing against second and third stringers as well.

I don't know what the right move is, but I know at this moment I'd rather have Sorgi than Painter start a game for me. Beyond this year who knows.
What....
written by J.C., August 31, 2009
No more Reds talk?
KEEP PAINTER
written by tjbindy, August 31, 2009
Any of you watch that mess on Sunday night? Look at the disaster they have in Denver and tell me they wouldn't be better with Painter than ANY of the guys they have. Their best is Orton . ..Orton . .. he has lost the starting job in Chicago at least 3 times; and he is by far the best hope there. Look around the league; it is littered with teams that need anybody that even sorta can play QB. .. . Let them have Sorgi. Better yet; keep Painter as the backup and offer Sorgi a consultant job to help Peyton break down film.
...
written by DZ, August 31, 2009
Even with three picks in his first game, Orton has a passer rating of 74.8 against first string defenses this preseason. In his last two games, he's posted a 102.5.

Painter is no where near that level of play.

Curtis Painter needs to lead an actual TD drive or two before we pretend he's NFL ready.
ZZZ
written by ZZZ, August 31, 2009
The "stats" everyone is forgetting about is salary. Sorgi makes pretty good coin, a sixth-round rookie not so much. You have to factor that in. The Colts have already cut heads in the front office, don't think they won't consider saving a few bucks on the roster in this economy.
...
written by DZ, August 31, 2009
Nope.

Sorgi's base salary is 900K. Cutting him would save about 600K. That's real money, I guess, but not very much in the scope of things.
...
written by J.C., August 31, 2009
Not that I care about the Colt's backup QB or that it's even my place to comment, but anyone advocating the release of a guy who's been around forever, makes peanuts, knows the system, is diligent in his preparation is being ridiculous.

900K is chump change for a guy that can step in and not miss a beat. He might throw like a bitch but at least his teammates would be comfortable with him running the offense.

Except for the rare anomolies (Brady in 2000), young guys don't overtake vets for the backup role.
ZZZ
written by ZZZ, August 31, 2009
$600K has got to be worth at least six front office guys. How many of them did they let go this year? I'm not saying it's the determining factor, I'm just saying it's a factor. When they make these decisions, they look at everything. That's why they have six consecutive years with 12 wins, or more. It's not just deciding who's the best, sometimes it's who's the best value.
...
written by DZ, August 31, 2009
That's not a bad point, but it doesn't work that way.

My understanding is that the team operates with different budgets for the players verses the front office.

They don't look at it like: We'll if we cut Sorgi, we'll be able to keep three guys in suits.

The player salary budget is kept separately from the rest of the operating expenses. Irsay doesn't limit his GM and coach to keep players that are cheaper. The Colts will make this call based only on who is the better player. They have plenty of cap room, so there' no reason to cut corners there.

Money, on this small a scale, won't factor into the decision.

Again, that's my understanding of the situation. I'd welcome any clarification anyone can give from any official source.
zzz
written by ZZZ, August 31, 2009
I think that's a pretty naive position. Somebody, somewhere (Jim Irsay) looks at the big picture. There is always a bottom line regardless of how many sets of books you keep. It's still a business at the end of the day, and business is about making money no matter how emotional we fans get. I'll reiterate, though, that I'm just trying to get all of the info out there. The Colts may take all of this under consideration and determine that the overall best value is Sorgi.
...
written by DZ, August 31, 2009
It's not that it's impossible, but considering that the Colts are always one of the top 5 teams in spending on players every year, it seems highly unlikely that Irsay is pressuring anyone to cut Sorgi over 600K.

It would be very out of character.

Having said that, you are correct, it is possible.
...
written by LukeM, August 31, 2009
JC, owah sixth-round pick is bettah than yowah sixth-round pick.
...
written by LukeM, August 31, 2009
"What has he done other than throw the ball hard and look vaguely competant?"

A-Ha! So you admit he looks vaguely competent! You'll rue the day we tried to sneak Painter on to the practice squad.
...
written by DZ, August 31, 2009
lol

Very nice. That got a big chuckle...

Yes, I admit it, I'm pro-Painter. I won't mind if they keep 3 QBs. I like the kid.

I just don't think he's the better back up right now.

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