Last season we got the MVP train rolling on Peyton Manning while the Colts were still 5-4.  It was easy to look at the schedule, foresee a string of wins against lesser defenses and posit that 18 was going to jump to the front of a very mediocre pack of MVP candidates.  Along the way, Manning's case was helped by 8 straight wins, but also by Adrian Peterson fumbling the ball constantly, Drew Brees melting down in the fourth quarter of must win games, and Kurt Warner looking ancient in awful losses to the Eagles and Patriots.  In the end, everything broke Manning's way, and he captured his third MVP award.  We eagerly chronicled the chase every step of the way because 2008 was Manning's greatest season and because we knew in our hearts the 2008 were a flawed, broken team that had no real title shot.  Rooting for Manning to win the MVP award was all we really had. The award was a recognition of how great 18 was and just how weak that team was.

Now a year later, Manning is again in the conversation for MVP along with Favre and Brees.  Apparently, that's the new MVP formula:  Manning, Brees, and some really old QB having a nice year.  Still, we've barely discussed the issue, and you won't find any impassioned pleas here today.  Do I think Manning is the MVP?  Of course I do.  But there's two reasons not to worry about it yet.  First is that there's too much of the season to play out.  It's simply too early to talk MVP.  I have a feeling the issue will clarify itself dramatically in the coming weeks.  Second, there are bigger issues this season.  The 2009 Colts are a Super Bowl caliber team.  All focus is on the entire team, as it should be. The MVP race is a distant second behind what could be the most spectacular regular and post season in NFL history.  We have GREAT teams.  We have living legends playing at the peak of their powers.  The NFL has never been better than it is right now

Here are the cases for the top four MVP candidates and what they have to do to win the award in the final five weeks.  Please note, this isn't how I would vote, just how I see the race shaping up.  Don't argue with me that so and so is too low or too high based on any sane reason.  This is how I think the media who votes will see things:

1.  Brett Favre

The case for:  a 10-1 record, 24 TDs and 3 picks, a 112 rating.  Say what you will, it's hard to argue with those numbers.  Currently 5-0 verses the NFC North (4-2 last year).

The case against:  Took over a 10 win team from last year.  The Vikings also added Percy Harvin and have gone from 32nd in Special Teams to first this year.  None of that has anything to do with Favre.  Oh, and there's this running back they have that I've heard is sort of talented.  Favre joined a stone cold stacked team.  He's playing great, but the Vikes probably won't finish more than 3 or 4 games better with him than without him.

What he has to do to win:  If he keeps his rating north of 105, and finishes the final five games with a TD/INT ratio of 2:1, and the Vikes go at least 4-1, he'll almost assuredly win.  Manning or Brees would have to lead their team to an undefeated season to beat him out.  The hype is only going to escalate from here.  However, if the Vikes go 3-2 and Farve throws some picks, the window is open for another player.  I'm not saying I like it, I'm just saying this is the reality of 2009.  It's about Favre until it isn't.

2.  Peyton Manning

The case for:  6 fourth quarter comebacks, an 11-0 record, a rating of 102.5, leads the league in completion percentage and yards, doesn't have a great running game, breaking in two young receivers, has a rookie head coach. He scares the living hell out of Bill Belichick.

The case against:  He won last year (a very lame, but VERY real reason).  He has thrown 6 picks in his last three games.  As great as he is, this season lacks the epic "I'm willing this team to win" vibe that he had last season.  He also didn't beat the Packers twice.

What he has to do to win:  Finish 16-0 and/or break Ken Anderson's single season completion percentage record of 70.5% (currently he's at 70.4%).  He must lead the league in passing yards, and needs a TD/INT ratio of 3:1 over the final five games.  Manning can still pull this out, but he'll have to play off the charts down the stretch to do it.  He's still topping a lot of MVP boards, but the perception is that the Colts are about to go into shell mode.  This feels like 2005 all over again.  Manning had the award locked with 12 weeks to go, but taking the air out of the ball killed that.  Honestly, that's what I expect to happen this year.

3. Drew Brees

The case for:  11-0.  Huge numbers, including leading the NFL in passer rating.  A perfect game on MNF over the Pats (possibly the best modern passing game in history).  There's a sense that it's 'his turn'.

The case against:  Massive talent surrounding him. The Saints have a great run game this year, and he has a bevy of talented players and a coach with a wide open style.  He's never won a Super Bowl so people don't take his regular season numbers as seriously (don't ask me what that has to do with anything, but trust me, it does).

What he has to do to win: Finish 16-0.  He's already done everything else.  If the Saints win out, Brees is the MVP.  If the Colts and Saints both win out...I think Manning takes it.  Since I don't expect Indy to play for 16-0, I think Brees can win the award with a perfect season.  Otherwise, I can't see him leap frogging Favre.

4.  Chris Johnson

The case for:  Leads the NFL in rushing.  Three 85 yard TD runs in a season is more than any player has had in his entire career.  He is an explosive dominant player on a hard charging team.

The case against:  He's a running back.  His team is 5-6.  He's a boom/bust guy.  Lots of long runs, but his success rate is 28th in the NFL.  That makes for gaudy numbers, but an inflated 'true value'.

What he has to do to win:  If the big three play soft down the stretch, and he rushes for 2000 yards AND the Titans win 10 games and make the playoffs, Chris Johnson could win the MVP award.  In the immortal words of George W. Bush, "Nah gah dah".

Comments (14)

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written by IanB, December 03, 2009

You bring up 16-0 and going into shell mode, and a lot of commentators have said this as well, that the Colts will rest when it's all clinched.

I have to wonder though, would Manning allow himself to be taken out of a game if they have a shot at an undefeated season?

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written by DZ, December 03, 2009

I think it's still feasible the Colts play for 16-0 if they are winning. If they drop a game, however, they will 'turtle up'. I don't want to get into the issue this week, because I think things are about to get a lot clearer on several fronts after this week.

As long as the Colts are undefeated, I think Manning will be playing at least the first half of games.

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written by Attila, December 03, 2009

While Peyton has more INTs, he hasn't lost a fumble. Brees lost 4, Favre 1. And I'm hoping Favre gets his picks and fumbles the next two weeks, against Arizona and Cincinnati... If the Colts beat the Titans, and hold CJ to 40-80 yards, he is out of the race... I wouldn't mind a tie, again, in the MVP result.

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...as long as it is not Favre
written by Doug England, December 03, 2009

Peyton is and has been the MVP every year for at least the last eight seasons. (Deep down, EVERYONE in the NFL or who covers the league knows this.)

But your points are well made. (Especially the one where last year, we knew that team was too beat up to be a real Super Bowl threat.)

However, just for selfish reasons, I don't want to see Favre go one up on Peyton in career MVPs. If Brees wins the MVP and the Colts the Super Bowl, by golly I'll take that right now and call it a day!

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It's all about expectations for Favre
written by psvirsky, December 03, 2009

It's really hard not to compare his play this year to the past few years. He is playing well and I don't want to take that away from him, but it feels like everyone is talking about his season in comparison to his past seasons rather than in comparison to other MVP candidates. So when you look at his career, all the INT's, breaking down late in the year, etc., it's hard to ignore how different this year is for him. Manning and Brees however have put together statistical seasons like this before - it's great but not spectacular by their measure. I'm not saying that Favre's stats don't hold up to theirs, it's just that his feels better because of his past seasons.

Obviously I think Peyton deserves it but I think only one stat matters: 6 4th quarter comebacks. They all have good stats and good records and it's tough to quantitatively compare surrounding talent, but this stat is unbelievable. In more than half of our games, Peyton Manning has led the team to a win in the last quarter. I just think this is too remarkable to ignore.

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Rarely is the MVP viewed as what it should be
written by dmstorm22, December 03, 2009

the Most Valuable Player. The NFL even tries to make it so by having a seperate Offensive Player of the Year award. However, with rare exceptions (Manning 200, it goes to essentially the Offensive Player of the Year.

I would still give it to Brees. First off, he deserves one after being jobbed in 2006. I know that's not a criteria, but honestly, how he didn't win it in 2006 is beyond me. He was truly valuable. Anyway, I don't think Manning's stats will be better than Brees's by the end of the year, because I expect him to sit much of at least the Buffalo game. I also think Favre, who has a tough stretch of games ahead against good defenses, and one game in frigin Soldier Field to drop off a bit. If he doesn't drop off, give it to him, but he definitely has the most talented roster of the three around him.

By definition of valuable, its probably Manning, but voters probably don't want him winning again.

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Favre... Brees... Manning
written by Bob M, December 03, 2009

In that order. I mostly agree with DZ's assessment, except that Brees had a huge, widely-watched statement game the other night against a team many think of as being elite and having an elite D, true or not. Favre has one outdoor bad weather game in Chicago left, which makes for a pretty sweet sked. (Manning has BUF and Brees... I forget)

Both Favre and Brees should be slugging it out for HFA through all 16 games, and therefore are likely to play about 8 quarters MORE than Manning--two whole games worth of stats should drop PM out of the yardage lead, though not the comp pct lead.

I think voters take into consideration what we might call "true value" by looking at a team's chances without their leader, by looking at supporting cast, etc, but probably 60-75% of their criteria are in the sheer numbers, and "story" category. Right now, Favre and Brees lead in those. (Like Manning led in "story" last year).

Wins are the wildcard, IMO. Say No and MIN both finish 14-2 and somehow IND goes 16-0 (and Manning has a hand in the last wins, rather than just playing a series)... that might sway voters. But then again, isn't voting done BEFORE the last games?

Finally, to parallel Doug's comment above, Let the other guys play every snap, along with all their starters. By the time we face them in the SB, they'll have played TWO more games than Manning, and a lot of their stars will have as well. Maybe just a step slower than they should be when fleeing a rested Freeney and Mathis. And we all know what they means.

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written by DemondSanders, December 03, 2009

If either Brees or Manning goes undefeated it is an automatic MVP win. Just the way it is.

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written by 35er, December 03, 2009

I don't know what the criteria for winning Comeback Player of the Year award is, but I think that's closer to what Favre deserves to win. Cause like psvirsky was saying, Favre's getting a lot of comparison's to his past 3 years where he looked to be aging, but then went to a stacked team and looks rejuvenated. The Vikings are a solid team and could still win without Favre. Acknowledge his success with the Comeback Player of the Year award.

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written by filiusdextris, December 03, 2009

If a ballot voter doesn't give Caldwell NFL coach-of-the-year, by subscribing to the theory that "hey, it's Manning's team, he's the real coach...", then they better be voting for Manning as MVP. Basically, it's one or the other or the voter is being hypocritical.

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written by sb, December 03, 2009

Question -- does anyone know if opponents play subs less on defense when they play the Colts? I was thinking of all the ways that 18 helps Indy win that have nothing to do with stats (except the W stat). One is the no-huddle. It causes problems for defenses because it reduces their ability to substitute for down and distance situations. They have to put 11 guys out there knowing that they may have to stay on the field for an entire drive (perhaps 10+ plays).

Obviously, they also can't rotate linemen to keep them fresh.

And they have to be careful about putting a sub out there at the beginning of the drive. If the Colts start taking advantage of him, they may not be able to get him out of there without getting a penalty.

Also, it likely helps the running game. Defenses want to be sure to focus on the pass. If they can't situation sub, better start the series with the extra DB out there.

But the kicker is this -- I wonder if it doesn't contribute to the Colt offensive success late in games. Not being able to sub wears them out. If their subs play less than normal, they will be more fatigued. That's why I'm curious if anyone has a stat.

I think there are likely other reasons that 18 wears defenses down besides the substitution problems he causes: 1) Intensity of focus and concentration for 60 minutes, and 2) frustration factor. First, the concentration issue. Nobody puts as much mental pressure on a defense. Teams are always trying to come up with new ways to slow him down. Then there is the constant cat and mouse game teams play trying to disguise looks til the last minute. Finally, the no huddle means they can't ever relax -- see the quick strike to Collie after the big hit. Peyton just mentally wears defenses down. And it makes a difference at the end of games.

Second, frustration. We've all seen games over the years where the other team's defense starts out just wearing out the offensive line and blanketing the receivers. But somehow the Colts keep squeezing out first downs. They don't beat teams with athletic size, strength, leaping ability or speed. And they don't fool them, either. They win with precision. Even when you are stuffing the run, getting a very good pass rush and getting good, tight coverage, the Colts often move the ball. It frustrates people to death. It wears them out. And it pays off in the 4th Q.

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written by bob patterson, December 03, 2009

So...many good comments.

filiusdextris that is an excellent point. How can you disregard Caldwell's impact without thinking that Peyton is the "engine of the ferrari"?

Sb

I think that is very solid analysis. I feel (and this may be wrong) that in general teams tend to give up more yards / points in the fourth quarter in general. But, I do agree that the colts tend to do particularly well in those situations.

Your analysis would also explain why we do so well at the end of the half. The mental fatigue has set in after playing two full quarters and he strikes. They get a break at halftime, but quickly wear down again by the 4th quarter.

What is interesting is that the frustration argument doesn't seem to work on us. The whole bend don't break philosophy necessitates giving up lots of first downs. It would be interesting to see if that frustration factor varies depending on what type of defense you run. Or, perhaps just with the quality of coaching.

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written by Anhero, December 03, 2009

Never, will you convince me that any one team in the NFL other than the Colts puts more on one players shoulders and thereby makes him more 'valuable' than PM is to the Colts. The simple fact is this, the award is a popularity contest and should be viewed as nothing but that. I honestly think if VY keeps it up for two weeks he will get thrown in the mix, even though he is like 1/3 of the reason the Titans are turning it around.
Popularity contest...all it is and all it ever will be.

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written by sb, December 03, 2009

Bob Patterson,

Thanks. About the frustration aspect at the end -- I'm trying to identify a very specific type of frustration. I'm not talking about trying to guard Randy Moss or block Lawrence Taylor. That's different, they are just so damn athletically gifted. I'm talking about the frustration that comes from feeling like you are just as good (or better) athletically, but somehow the opponent keeps getting it done. Your defense is doing all the things you want to get done. You're executing the plan, but Indy keeps moving the chains. You're dominating the O-line, stopping the run, pressuring 18. The coverage is really good. You're all over the receivers. That last completion was just luck -- except that it was just like a dozen others. You're so close you can almost touch it, but you never do.

Remember John Lynch's comments after the 2d big playoff win over Denver? Broncos upgraded their D and really thought they had the plan. But they got torched. Remember how frustrated Warren Sapp was when he came to Indy with Oakland in 2004? Raiders started out pushing around the O-line, stuffing 32, knocking 18 down, Woodson was shutting down 88, but the Colts kept barely squeezing first downs. WR screen to Stokely got a first down. A hard count got one from an offsides penalty. Oak defense was athletically dominant early, but Indy kept scoring TDs anyway. Sapp was visibly frustrated. It isn't supposed to happen that way.

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