The Vince Young Files, Vol 5

Before ceding that Vince Young has single handedly transformed the Titans from the team that got waxed 59-0 by the Patriots to the team now threatening to bash their way into the playoffs, we have to look at the numbers. For the purposes of this article, we are only going to look at the Titans first 5 games for two reasons:

1. It's easier to compare 5 games without Young to 5 games with Young. In addition, both sets of five games include the Jags and Texans, making the samples quite comparable.

2. The 59-0 loss to the Pats was so aberrant as to skew the stats to the point of unreliability. The 0-5 Titans are a better sampling of the 'real' Titans than the freak blizzard, 'week before the bye week' team that collapsed so completely.

There are four possibilities for the Titans' sudden turnaround, and we need to investigate each as fully as possible.

1. The Titans defense has improved

2. The Titans are running the ball better.

3. The Titans schedule got easier.

4. Vince Young's play has caused the turnaround.

1. Has the Titans defense improved enough to account for the turnaround?

Let's look at the numbers:

	PPG	Yards Rushing	YPC	Yards Passing	YPA	Comp %	Turnovers	Opponent's Passer Rating
First 5	27.8	75.4	2.8	287.6	7.9	71.5	1.6	108.4
Last 5	18.2	109.2	5.8	214	7.7	61.8	1.6	80.5

Some observations:

The Titans D improved by 9.6 PPG over the first 5 games. That certainly will help.
The Titans' secondary clearly stepped up, posting massive gains in completion % and passer rating.
Oddly enough, the Titans' run D really dropped off the table in this stretch.

Conclusion: Whatever other causes for the Titans improvement we find, it is undeniable that the defensive secondary turned the corner in the last five games.

2. Are the Titans running the ball more effectively now?

Let's look at the numbers without Vince Young's carries included:

	Yards	YPC	TD
First 5	616	5.7	3
Last 5	863	6.0	8

Some observations:

Remember that these numbers don't factor in QB rushes (for Collins or Young)
The Titans are clearly running the ball at least a little more effectively now. It could be argued that Young's presence is opening up the running game, but we'll have to evaluate that argument after seeing VY's numbers.

Conclusion: Chris Johnson had an insane month of November. He deserves some of the credit for the Titans turnaround.

3. Has the Titans schedule gotten easier?

Some times a team can go hot and cold just because of the opponents they play. Let's check on the Titans schedule. We already stated they played the Texans and Jags in both halves, so let's look at the other three games.

	Record	DVOA Ranks
First 5	22-11	10, 19, 2
Last 5	16-17	20, 26, 8

Some observations:

The Titans have clearly faced an easier schedule. Two of the three teams they lost two are better than two of the three teams they beat.
Schedule can't be the whole explanation because we already noted that both 'halves' contain two games in common.

Conclusion: The schedule has eased up a little. It's not the whole explanation, but it has helped the turnaround.

4. Has Vince Young turned the Titans around?

Let's look at the numbers:

	PPG	Yards Rushing (QB)	YPC	Yards Passing	YPA	Comp %	Rating	Turnovers	First Downs
Collins	16.8	16	1.8	1078	5.8	57.3	67.4	8	85
Young	29	159	4.3	1010	7.7	63.4	94	6	96

Some observations:

Note that these numbers for Young do not include his mop up stats from the Indy and NE games.
Total turnovers includes fumbles for both players
Not only has VY been superior to Collins, but he's playing vastly better than he ever has before at any period in his career. His previous career highs for YPA, Completion %, and rating are: 6.7, 62.3% and 71.1.

Conclusion: If Vince Young had played this well before he got benched, he never would have gotten benched at all. He has clearly played better than Collins did by every measure.

SUMMARY:

It's a first! For once, the Vince Young Files actually vindicates VY. If I had to rank the causes of the Titans sudden turnaround, I would still start with the defense. The secondary has become respectable and it's stabilized the team, allowed them to be more patient with both run and pass. When you aren't getting blown out every week, you can afford to play a more controlled efficient game.

There's no question that Johnson is running better than ever and that the schedule eased up a little, but more important a factor than either of those two issues has been the play of Vince Young. For five games at least, he's posted "real live quarterback" numbers. Wins in and of themselves don't mean a QB is playing well. We've shown that time and time again as we've chronicled how the Titans often won despite Young, not because of him. This time, there is no debating it: Vince Young is helping the Titans win games.

Don't be confused. This spate of good play doesn't mean that Young has arrived. It doesn't mean "he never should have been benched". It does mean that right now, he is actually playing well, and it is helping his team.

This is the first time in his career that has been the case.

Comments (16) Add Comment

Subscribe to this comment's feed

Nicely done
written by Bob M, December 01, 2009

I hope most of all that he has his head screwed on right this time around.

Also, it looks like a plethora of contributory factors, though VY's portion looks to be comparable to the Passing D and CJ's production. I wonder what happens when one leg of that tripod fails.... or two? I guess we'll see, eventually. Maybe all three falter this weekend.

I wonder what other factors might be involved, such as TO ratio, QB pressures/sacks, injuries to Tenn/opponents.

...
written by Ed Harley , December 01, 2009

Peyton will attack Nick Harper like virus and the Colts will get up big early. This will force VY to do something he simply cannot do, read a defense and pass the ball. CJ will get his, but it won't be enough.

...
written by DZ, December 01, 2009

Sacks are up 15 to 9 over the second 5 games. So the Titans are clearly trying to get more pressure.

Titans are -7 in turnovers through 5, +5 in the last five. Most of that is interceptions which I documented. Turnovers forced has stayed the same.

...
written by Willy Duer, December 01, 2009

Polian correctly pointed out on NFLn just now that they had all 4 guys in their secondary hurt the first time the Colts faced them. Now, that doesn't really excuse how bad their original starters were in the first two games of the year, but the secondary has had a ton to do with their improvement.

But let everyone fawn all over VY. If they extend him and give him a huge contract extension it just hamstrings the team for years to come. Even if he maintains this kind of accuracy he'll get a bit easier to defend and/or trick. Plus his success will make Tebow more desirable and pricier, which could lead to the Jags doing something incredibly dumb to get him too. So it really helps the Colts in their division. Go Vince!

...
written by DemondSanders, December 01, 2009

Has Young actually improved or evolved as a player?

I say: not much. He is averaging 202 yards throwing per game, and much lower than that if you throw out his huge game against the Cards. He is averaging 0.8 TDs per game.

He is doing it with his legs. Again. While he is only averaging 31 yards rushing over this stretch, he is picking up about 3 rushing first downs a game. That is a huge advantage when it comes from your quarterback. Combine that with Chris Johnson and you have a winning formula.

Unfortunately that doesn't make him a good quarterback. But if he can consistently repeat his passing effort against Arizona... look out.

...
written by DZ, December 01, 2009

Yards per game isn't a relevant stat, especially for a team with a great (and the Titans are great) rushing offense.

All his rate stats are through the roof (for him). His lowest rating in a game (84.7) is higher than his career high for a season.

I have no idea if he'll sustain this production or not, but you can live with VY throwing 20 passes a game if he can do so at a 64% clip and 7 to 8 YPA. That kind of production is solid considering the additional yardage he adds with his legs.

To this point, he is playing better than he ever has (even has a good DYAR/DVOA score for the first time!). It is a change.

The only question is if it is permanent.

YAC?
written by Chip Bennett, December 01, 2009

How many of those passing yards are due to YAC? In the limited opportunity I've had to watch VY play, it hasn't appeared to me that he 1) has improved considerably in his accuracy or 2) has suddenly developed a deep ball.

Also, the improvement in scoring for the Titans appears to be a bit misleading. Sure, the team has scored 12 points more per game in their past five games versus their first five. However:

1) Young has thrown for a grand total of 4 TDs (vs. Collins' 5)
2) Young and Collins both rushed for 1 TD
3) The Titans have 8 rush TDs, versus only 3 rush TDs
4) The Titans have 3 INT-return TDs, versus none
5) The Titans have 11 FGs, versus 7

So, of those 12 ppg:
1) 7 ppg come from increased rush TDs
2) 4 ppg come from increased INT-return TDs
3) 2 ppg come from increased FGs

Young has actually *cost* his team 1.4 ppg in reduced Pass TD output.

The bottom line is, in terms of scoring, Young has made virtually no difference whatsoever. The improved running game, combined with some help from the defense, has led to the Titans' improved scoring output.

Arizona
written by Chip Bennett, December 01, 2009

Just a stats-line comparison:

Manning @ARI: 24/35, 379, 4 TD, 1 INT (130.5)
Young vs.ARI: 27/43, 387, 1 TD, 0 INT (99.7)

(And Manning let off the gas in the fourth quarter.)

Arizona's secondary is pretty... bad. They are 24th in the league in YPG, 29th in the league in passing YPG, 21st in YPA, 19th in passing TDs allowed, and 12th in passer rating allowed (thanks in part to being 11th in INTs).

The per-game stat line for Arizona is 21.7/38.3, 258.3, 1.5 TD, 1 INT (81.2)

VY was 27/43, 387, 1 TD, 0 INT (99.7)

So, basically, Young gashed ARI for a ton of yards, but had a worse-than average completion rate, worse-than-average TD, and better-than-average INT.

For comparison: VY against ARI is roughly comparable to Matt Schaub, but worse than Jay Cutler.

So, maybe he's playing himself up to... sorta average?

...
written by DZ, December 02, 2009

What difference does it make that they are scoring more off of rush TDs and FGs? Young has input into both those categories. The return TDs matter, obviously, but there is still a big improvement.

Pushing the YAC is a bit of a stretch in my book. If the Titans are getting any more YAC from Young's throws than from Collins that's in his favor.

RE: Arizona D.
The Cards passing D is 17th in DVOA...it's basically an average passing D. Young had a good game against an average passing D.

You all are missing the point. His numbers are more than just the Arizona game. His accuracy, be it from scheme or from skill, has improved. His YPA is better

There has been at least temporary improvement, and his good play has helped his team win.

This is the first time in his career this has ever happened.

...
written by Chip Bennett, December 02, 2009

Really? VY is having a "hand" in CJ's TD runs?

JAX: CJ had TD runs of 52 yards and 89 yards (305 net rush yds, 125 net pass yds)
@SF: CJ had TD runs of 2 yards and 1 yard (152 net rush yds, 163 net pass yds)
BUF: CJ had TD runs of 28 yards and 1 yard (168 net rush yds, 210 net pass yds)
@HOU: LW had a TD run of 1 yard (228 net rush yds, 116 net pass yds)
ARI: CJ had a TD run of 85 yards (163 net rush yds, 369 net pass yds)

The JAX game was all running. VY was not a factor.
The @SF game, VY did have one good passing drive, completing two long passes to set up a short CJ rush TD. Three other scoring drives were on short fields set up by INT returns and a fumble recovery.
The BUF game, VY also had one good passing drive, completing one long and another long-ish pass, setting up the CJ 28-yd TD rush. A second TD was set up by a long punt return. Another was set up by a bad punt, and mostly running plays set up CJ's 1-yd TD rush on the drive. Note that CJ was VY' leading receiver in this game.
The @HOU game, VY's TD drive was set up mostly be CJ on the ground. Likewise with the drive that ended with LW's rush TD.
The ARI game, the first (52yd) FG drive was set up by mostly passing. The second (24yd) FG drive was also set up by mostly passing. The final, game-winning TD drive was all passing.

And we're not even looking into the VY-CJ screen passes (which, as with Manning and Addai, are effectively a "running" play). CJ's receiving yards for the five games are: 11, 25, 100, 0, 32 (33ypg, 168 total).

For his career, VY is averaging 150ypg.

For the five games in question, VY is averaging 202ypg (including the ARI game, which accounts for almost 40% of his passing yards). Even including the ARI game, 60% of the improvement in passing yards is coming from passes to his RB. Discounting the ARI game, VY is averaging (wait for it) 150ypg.

In the end, Tennessee is getting their offense going on the ground. Only a poor defensive scheme would "open up the run game" due to a scrambling QB who tends to be good for about one decent, long pass a game.

I'll grant that VY's completion % is up a bit, as is his accuracy. That said, he's still not terribly accurate, and still isn't threatening teams with the deep ball.

In other words, he's still Vince Young.

...
written by DZ, December 02, 2009

My comment about VY's impact on CJ's running was 'for the sake of argument'. I'm trying to be fair to VY.

You can't 'discount' passes to the RB. They are part of football and count as passing yards. Kerry Collins had every opportunity to throw to CJ as well.

Look, I'm not saying VY is a pro bowler or even worth keeping next year.

I'm saying:
1. he's clearly played better than Collins did
2. His play has helped the Titans win (something that never happened before if you read the other VY Files)
3. He's playing markedly better than at any point of his career.

I don't think that's arguable. You can't just 'take out' the Arizona game. It happened. It was a big passing game against an average pass defense.

But VY is still... VY
written by Chip Bennett, December 02, 2009

My point is that, sure, he has improved his game - but only with respect to grading on his own scale.

I'm arguing more to the point of whether or not VY is responsible for the Titans' 5-game win streak, after starting 0-6. He's not. Regardless of whatever improvement he's made over his previous performance, that improvement has not translated into making a significant impact on the performance of the Titans during their past 5 games.

The Titans' defense is allowing 10 fewer points per game. The defense and rushing are combining to score 11 more points per game.

Those two factors would be the same, regardless of who is taking the snaps.

I see no evidence to support your assertion that Young's play has been more important than the improved rushing game (or, for that matter, the easier schedule - though schedule may be a wash compared to VY's improved performance).

Probably the biggest difference between Young and Collins is that Young has thrown only 2 picks, while Collins threw 8. Young has lost 1 fumble, while Collins lost 2 fumbles.

If you want to make the argument that the Titans' offense is extending more drives by protecting the ball better, then I'll buy that argument. Collins was averaging 2 TOs per game, and Young is averaging about 0.5 TOs per game. That's an extra drive and a half per game.

...
written by DZ, December 02, 2009

1. The running game has been better recently, but it's hard to argue that an increase from 5.7 YPC to 6.0 YPC is enough to take a team from 0-5 to 5-0. The Titans' run game was really good BEFORE VY. It's been a little better since. It's a reasonable argument that the modest improvement has something to do with a QB averaging nearly TWO YPA better than the old one.

Take any offense and improve their YPC by .3 and you'll see very slight improvement.

But if you improve their YPA by nearly 2...you'll see a major improvement.

You just can't argue that .3 yards better rushing means more than 2 yards passing.

2. Young has been markedly better than Collins at everything. He's completing a higher % of passes, throwing fewer picks and his YPA is way, way better. The number of first downs is way up as well. You are right that's at least partly connected to fewer turnovers.

He hasn't been prolific (apart from one game), but you simply cannot argue that he hasn't been efficient (something he NEVER has been in his whole career).

In a sample size this small, when two of the five games are against common opponents, it's very difficult to argue that schedule matters more than a QB change.

If I had to break down what's made the difference, I would do so like this:
defensive improvement 60%
VY playing better than Collins: 20%
CJ running a little better than before: 15%
Easier schedule: 5%

Now THAT is a Better Argument
written by Chip Bennett, December 02, 2009

That's more reasonable, and better analysis, IMHO.

Of cours, I would add that the running game is better not just because of YPC, but because they are relying on it more. (They have to be, in order for CJ's multiple, monster TD runs of 50-80+ yards to average out to barely more YPC than in the first five games.)

In other words, VY is handing off more often.

I would probably rate the factors as follows:

Defense: 50%
Rushing: 30%
VY improvement: 15%
Schedule: 5%

In other words, I think 80% of the improvement is due to the defense and rushing, while very little at all is due to schedule. The rest is VY.

I also think it's reasonable:

1) The scoring differential is more than 50% on the defense (10 fewer points allowed per game, while scoring 4 points per game defensively). That's 14 points out of a 22-point swing.

2) The scoring differential is about 35% rushing. (7 more points scored per game) That's 7 points out of a 22-point swing. But, *some* of that differential is due to the play-caller, so give VY 5% of that.

There is obviously some room for argument there (maybe it's 60-20-15-5, maybe it's 50-25-20-5), but - without denying that VY has improved, and is playing better than Collins - I think I've got them ranked accurately.

...
written by DZ, December 02, 2009

CJ had long TD runs in the first five games as well.

The rushing improvement simply isn't enough to account for the amount of overall lift you are attributing to it. That incremental a gain in rushing wouldn't produce that much of a lift, but whatever. We are splitting hairs I think.

Splitting Hairs
written by Chip Bennett, December 02, 2009

To be sure.

How about more important things: such as, how the Colts are going to shut down the Titans' offense and score on their defense?

Brackett spies Scaife, Bullitt spies CJ/VY, and Powers and Hayden (please?!? this week?) man-up on the WRs.

But, what does their defense do against our two base sets (3WR, or 2TE)? Does (our) CJ protect Manning long enough for him to get downfield again this week? I think we are at our most potent with 3WR, but that's one less TE to help block. We need our second-half OLine in the first half, too.