Anatomy of a Nail Biter

I've had a lot of emotions today: nervous, confident, angry, irate, relieved, resigned, elated. By now my bipolar afternoon has settled down into one dominant reaction: satisfaction. This game was a huge win for the Colts. It takes all the pressure off of next week's game with the Pats. That tilt will have all its own drama, I'm sure, but it's nice not to feel like the fate of the free world is riding on it. More on that to come. For now, we should all take a deep breath, and just enjoy being 8-0 for a few more hours.

Reasons to Smile:

Joseph Addai's TD run. Actually, his whole game. I know we've been branded as "Addai apologists", but anyone who still doubts him doesn't understand football. This guy does everything that's asked of him every week. I know his rushing numbers have been lackluster, but the problem is clearly the offensive line who can't seem to keep people out of the backfield. Addai's TD run could have been a three yard loss easily, but Addai shook free of the tackler and gave the Colts the lead. There are problems with the run game, no question. Addai is part of the solution, however.
Jerraud Powers. I realize that he didn't actually get the second foot down that would have made for a recovery, and instead touched the ball on the goal line while technically still out of bounds. The result is the same. He's playing a great corner right now and is making heady plays. We'll miss MJax, but much less so because Powers has the look of a star.
The defense in general. Tremendous game. I've been harping on it all year, but this unit is the better of the two, or at least the more complete. They forced two picks in the passing game and held the Texans backs to 22 caries for 45 yards and a fumble. This Texans team can really fling the ball, so 17 points allowed is a great effort.
Dallas Clark. He'll be starting in the Pro Bowl.
Freeney. Not just for the sacks, but for the nice plays against the run. He's doing it all right now.
Great 5 man rush with Brackett blitzing.
Frenchy gettng a PI on the Wayne pick. Didn't help, but shows he tried. OPI on a pick is one of the few 'acceptable' penalties. As was Saturday's hold after the Texans jumped offside and threatened to swallow Manning whole. That play was a bad break.

Reasons to Frown:

The coaching. Hang on, I'll get to it. There were at least 5 awful, indefensible decisions in this game. I've praised Caldwell a lot. He caught my wrath all afternoon in this one.
The offensive line. Mario Williams beat CJ for a sack. The running game was non-existent early as Addai was getting killed in the backfield (which is almost always the fault of the line, people).
No deep passing game again. I don't think Manning had even one 20 yard pass today (other than the one to Collie that was called back). It's getting to be an issue. The offense is taking on a serious 2008 look in the last two games. Teams are getting more pressure on Manning (2 more sacks-that's 5 in two games after 2 in six games), and not respecting the run at all with the safeties.
No run game again. I know, Addai broke free in the fourth quarter to make the YPC respectable, but there was nothing there for most of the game. It's killing us in the red zone.
As a result, there were 40 first half passes. Not good
Manning's pick. Awful. He never saw the linebacker sliding over. He used to throw that pick all the time back in the day, but now you never see it. It almost cost the Colts the game.
Wayne's throw. Good lord. Like the call, hate the call, whatever. The WR has to know he should only throw the ball if the dude is wide open in the endzone. Simply inexcusable.
We don't have a kicker who can make a 48 yard kick. I liked going for it in the first quarter with fourth and 1 (I wanted it on fourth and 6, too), but really, from that distance you should have a kicker who can be trusted to hit a 48-50 yarder. We don't. It'll get us before it's all said and done.
It seemed like the Texans picked on Lacey. I'll have to watch the tape to confirm. It would have been nice if Jennings had pulled in that pick.
Awful 'Big Blitz' (at first glance they came with at least 6). It lead to a huge play and eventually a TD for the Texans. I don't like blitzes, but I really hate big blitzes that don't come close to landing.

Best Call:

It's a tie: the challenge of the fumble and going for it on fourth and 1 early. One worked, the other didn't. Both were the right call.

Worst Call:

(Pardon me while I crack my neck in preparation) It's a five way tie! In chronological order:

Opting to take the ball when they won the toss with the roof open. Seriously? Is this rocket science? There is a MASSIVE GLARE in your endzone that only lasts for a quarter. Defer to the second half. It cost them on the first drive as the WRs were looking back into the sun (especially Wayne) on the fourth down play. We have a retractable roof. Fine. Don't screw yourself with it, though. Stupid, stupid decision. Make the Texans drive into the sun endzone. By the second quarter it's no longer an issue.
Punting on fourth and 3 from the 39. Yes, yes. I know Addai just lost two yards thanks to a major fail by the offensive line. Still, no team in football would punt to the Colts in that situation. Houston is not Saint Louis. They have a good offense. You can't just assume your D will go the whole game without ever allowing a first down. The stats on this are overwhelming...GO FOR IT! It took Houston just four plays to pass that spot on the field. Awful call.
"Icing the kicker" at the end of the first half. Dungy had a brilliant philosophy on this: never give a kicker a practice kick. If you are going to ice, you do it early. Letting him get a free try to work out the kinks is moronic. Now, it's possible the kick attempt was only blocked because of the timeout, but there's just no reason to do it. I'm proud of Caldwell for figuring that one out at the end of the game. If Brown had been given another chance, I would have started to break things. Hopefully, he learned his lesson on this one. UPDATE: Word on the street is that Caldwell was not trying to ice the kicker, just trying to put a return man on the field. That's better logic at least. Bad execution is one thing, bad logic is another. All is forgiven.
Punting on fourth and 1 from the 45. Again, same logic. It took the Texans three plays to get to that spot on the field. Punting on anything shorter than fourth and 4 or 5 on the other team's side of the field just doesn't pay off most of the time. Especially against a good offense. The three and out allowed Houston to dominate the entire third quarter and almost cost the Colts the game. This crap won't fly against New England, Jim. You have to be aggressive. No one would do you the favor of punting in the same position. Stop helping the other team out.
The Wayne pass. I was tempted to let this go, because I loved the call last week, and I want to be fair. Then a reader pointed out that having Wayne throw the ball takes Wayne out of the pattern. It was also fresh on the D's mind because you just tried it last week. Granted, the execution by Wayne was WORSE than the call, but still. Terrible job.

Jim Caldwell has been brilliant all year. He nearly cost his team the game today, however. This was not a good day for him, at all. Still, he's 8-0, so that helps make him bullet proof. He's still got a lot of rope with me, but the punting on fourth and short has to stop. It will crush our season if it doesn't.

Reasons I'm Flyin':

This was a serious 'big boy' win over a playoff caliber team. The Texans are going to win a lot of games this year, and I love the way the Colts gutted it out. Wins don't come much sweeter than this, so don't worry about it...celebrate it. I'm genuinely thrilled they won today. That's a fun feeling.
The defense is championship caliber right now. It's the Colts best unit.
The AFC South is all but clinched. The Colts have some cushion to work with. I don't think that New England and Baltimore are all that good (I know Baltimore isn't), but it's nice to know that a split of the next two games won't kill us. We've had the game at Houston down as a loss for some time, which is why winning today was so critical.

Reasons I'm Dyin':

They should have opened a 20 point lead on this team. They let them hang around and could've lost easily.
Gonzo and Hayden are still out. We'll need them both before all is said and done.
I hate Pats week. I hate the Pats. I hate thinking about them. The only thing I like about them is watching them lose.

The Bottom Line:

Eight games. Eight wins. A four game lead in the division (yeah, yeah 3 1/2, whatever). At least a one game lead (hopefully two after tomorrow night) over the rest of the AFC. The Colts' schedule hasn't been as bad as people think (not that SOS matters at all in the NFL). Two winning teams, a .500 team, and the Dolphins in Miami (which is not an easy game). This team has a great D, a great QB, some great pass catchers. That's the formula the Steelers rode to the title last year. There's no reason to think Indy won't do the same this year. Today, the Colts were clearly superior to a good Texans team, but made too many stupid mistakes to blow them out. On a day they didn't play their best, they still won against a team who desperately needed to beat them.

Smile. This was a very good day.

Comments (42) Add Comment

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written by ibft, November 08, 2009

If your argument wrt addai was so great, you wouldn't feel the need to speak in ridiculous absolutes. Anyone that thinks Addai isn't the greatest thing since Jim Brown "doesn't understand football." How ignorant is that comment on a scale from one to global thermonuclear war? (Pretty high, but I ran out of fingers and toes)

I won't nitpick Addai's killer drop(s) because he's been so clutch catching the ball all year (not sarcasm) and his blocking is superb, but to absolve him of all blame for the pisspoor running game is as ignorant as your "accusation". The only thing keeping Addai from being labeled a bust is that big shiny trophy that was won when he was a rookie. He's not an every down back, which is what you should expect from a first round pick.

Bill Polian seems to disagree with your assessment, otherwise they probably wouldnt have drafted another RB in the first round to 'replace rhodes', when they could have drafted a good rb (greene, mccoy, to name 2) later, or, ya know, resigned rhodes, or a myriad of other serviceable veteran rbs (james, buckhalter to name 2, if Addai was an every down back, that wouldnt have been a problem).

How would trading up for Oher or picking Britton look right now, over Brown? But Brown was their BAP, presumeably at a position they felt a need to upgrade.

And while the sample size is ridiculously small, Brown has shown the ability to hit much longer runs than Addai given the same blocking, simply because he picks a hole and goes through it as fast as he can, not worrying about what the judges will give him and if he'll be elimated from dancing with the stars on tomorrow nights show.

If I'm not mistaken, this same exact phenomenon happened last year. Addai struggled for most of the year, played Houston at home, put up huge numbers, was declared great by the Colts blogosphere, struggled the rest of the year. Wonder if his monster games against Houston have anything to do with the opponent? Probably not.

Addai would be great in a Kevin Faulk role (maybe even able to handle a few more carries than Faulk gets), but he's not a dynamic playmaker like a Slaton or Bush, and he's not a BYOB RB like a Barber or a Jacobs (probably a bad example at this point). He's Laurence Maroney, with a ring.

So before you go accusing anyone that doesn't lick Addai's feet (and its not that those people that fall into that group hate Addai, they are just sort of realistic) of knowing nothing about football while you sit in your posh NFL GM Office, take a deep breath and make your declaritive statements somewhere else, like, 'Everyone that plays right guard for the Colts sucks and should be working at white castle.'

Really agreed with the rest of your post (which I guess invalidates it since I'm in the 'know nothing about football camp'), just wish you'd leave the juvenile declaritive statements to the other guy.

-1

BROWN
written by COLTSANGEL, November 09, 2009

we get brown back and i garuntee we start doing better in the red zone. he is a bigger running back threat there as he is more of a power back than addai. also he has been our main short yardage and main back in general in the red zone and can catch the ball and pass block very well all things that we have been struggleing with the TWO games he has been out

i dont think this is a quincidence. he should be back against the pats and i bet we do better in the red zone as well

Im still not all smiles
written by Robert I., November 09, 2009

I just cant get over the gact of how many mistakes this normally great, dynamic, efficient offense made today. Im glad the defense bailed them out, but i just feel so uneasy. The only thing that makes me feel a little at ease about this is looking back towards the 2005 season when the Colts started the second and third game sputtering on offense only to come back strong. I hope that is the case from here on out, cause we need both units to show up and dominate.

Quincidence!
written by Willy Duer, November 09, 2009

I don't blame Addai for the run game but I also don't really like watching him do much of anything besides block. I like Brown and expect big things from him, but he's not just going to magically fix the red zone offense.

I don't know that I'd call going for it on 4th and 1 one of the better calls of the game. That's an obvious call, even if Stover could hit from 48, and he loses whatever points he gained because he initially planned to punt from the 36 before the penalty. That, along with the other decisions, made it a pretty awful day for the coaching.

I'll absolve them on the roof because by the time they got to that half of the field the sun was only in half the end zone (crooked shadow) and I'm sure they probably prepared for that. I think they decided that having the ball first and scoring (which they should've) was more important than avoiding the sun. I agree.

Not pleased with a lot of decisions, a lot of drops, several penalties (though nowhere near as many as theirs - which, btw, did anyone else notice how much of a whiny bitch Kubiak was to the refs after every call, including offsides? What a child.), and some of the play selection. Not just the Wayne pass.

Still, not a lot went right and they still did enough to win. Just barely, but this was a good team with some great receivers up against two rookies and they weren't completely overmatched. They weren't too great, but they did the job just fine. It was more than enough to win handily if the offense was working properly.

I know that Peyton is amazing and that the short passes play the role of runs, but the run blocking needs to improve. It's not just the line - Dallas and the receivers aren't blocking well either. I absolutely hate that there's even a question about 3rd and 1 and 4th down calls because nobody has any faith in the run game at all and there's no reason for defenses to respect it. With the field all spread out they way it is with 3 receivers, there's no reason that they shouldn't be able to get a yard when they need it. Every other team in the league can advertise QB sneak and run it with success, but the Colts can't trust the line to even get a yard of push. It has to stop. Manning can't win 3 playoff games against top tier teams completely by himself.

Can anyone say for sure what the rule is on recovering fumbles like that one Powers got? It's different from fielding kicks, I believe, when stepping out and fielding it in bounds means the ball is out, but I really can't say for sure. Without sound, my initial thought was that it was a bad decision... but it might've been an excellent one. I really have no idea. For me it's a mystery right up there with why the Eagles got flagged for an illegal formation penalty tonight and then ran the EXACT same formation the very next play without a flag. Those rules are totally unclear to me too.

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written by Willy Duer, November 09, 2009

Heh, of course Kravitz gave the coaching an A. Possibly the worst in-game coaching in years and he gives them an A and writes a column that basically comes right out and says Caldwell is better than Dungy. What an a*****e.

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written by DZ, November 09, 2009

RE: Addai.

Polian drafted Brown because they need two backs. He clearly didn't draft Brown to replace Addai, because Joe has gotten most of the carries all year.

Addai has been the best short yardage back in football (converting at nearly 80%) since he came into the league.

I stand by what I said. Hating on Addai just makes no sense. Until Brown popped that one big run against the Rams, his YPC was WORSE than Addai's. Brown does hit big plays, sure, but he also gets crushed behind the line just as often.

We need Brown back for sure. We need two effective backs. Right now we have one. It just doesn't work as well.

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written by DZ, November 09, 2009

Re: the boundry rule

I'm trying to run down the exact wording, but I believe Powers need the second foot down in order to recover the ball in bounds. Had the ball been on the 1 yard line instead of the goal line, it would have been Texans ball.

However, because it was on the goal line, when Powers touched it (as an out of bounds player) it made the ball out of bounds as well.

A fumble that goes out of bounds in the endzone is a touch back for the defensive team.

In this case, it didn't matter if he had established himself or not, the result was the same. He said after the game that he wanted to get the ball while it was still on the goal line so as to get the touchback.

That alone makes it a heady play.

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written by DZ, November 09, 2009

Re: the roof

I get that they want to take the ball and score on the first possession, but part of the reason they didn't was because they were driving into the sun endzone. Whoever starts out in that direction is going to have problems scoring in the first quarter, so why take the ball? Why help the other team. It's a bad decision.

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written by Uno Ocho, November 09, 2009

I try to stay bipartisan when it comes to Addai. My personal take; Addai is better at making people miss and Brown is a better straight ahead runner. When the O-line lets everyone in the backfield, both of them are screwed.

I think Addai is better at avoiding a tackler, the key word being "a" not "multiple". A lot of his problem this year is he dances around one defender only to have three more waiting right there. In these situations, it'd be better to just hit the (small) hole and take 3 yards instead of dancing for no gain.

Also on the offsides-holding offsets, why wasn't the play blown dead? Obviously the completion couldn't stand because it happened because of a hold. But then again the hold only happened because of the offsides. If the hold doesn't occur, the lineman hits 18 while he's taking the snap. That play should have been blown dead due to the clear line to the passer rule or whatever it's officially called.

That said, this was one of the better officiated games I've seen all year. They made a good explanation on the quirky Powers play and most of the penalties called seemed pretty obvious. Of course, officials and announcers still have blinders to the hands/arms of anyone blocking Freeney. On his sack on the first Houston offensive play, he was being held like crazy and still made it to the QB.

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written by DZ, November 09, 2009

The holding penalty was a bad break. They can't blow the play dead for offsides unless it's 'unabated to the QB'. Saturday had little choice but to hold, or else Manning would have been killed. It was a fluky play that slips right in the cracks of the NFL rule book.

I get the conventional wisdom is that Addai dances and Brown plows. I don't buy it. Addai's short yardage numbers are too good. He dances when there are a million guys in front of him. He slams the hole plenty hard most of the time.

Brown hasn't been any better. That's the thing I keep going back to. He's had some big plays, which are great, but he's had his share of runs for a loss too. Both are good backs. We need both. The run game won't really improve though until the Colts figure out how to run block. The runs for losses (which are on the line according to everyone who knows anything about line play) are killing this team. The line has to at least hold its position, even if it can't open holes. Allowing tacklers into the backfield is a recipe for disaster.

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written by DemondSanders, November 09, 2009

I am excited about Brown's career. But Addai, given the line, is doing everything they ask of him and more. That touchdown run to win the game gets better the more times I watch it.

Two weeks -- two game winning plays for 29.

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written by Attila, November 09, 2009

While it makes sense to go for it on 4th and short and not punt it, if McAfee could have pinned them inside the 10, then maybe it works out better, and the defense stops them right away.

The run game gets better during every game, but the number of the carries stays low, because of Peyton. The O-Line needs a lot more game experience in running, to figure out, how they can make it work in the long term. Caldwell has to step in, and force the issue, call more run plays, even if it goes nowhere at first.

...of all games
written by Doug England, November 09, 2009

You've posted after the last two playoff loses to the Chargers, that you went to bed thinking "at least they can't put this one on Manning"... only to wake the next day and find out, yes they can.

That is exactly how I felt about Addai after this game. Seriously, I just don't get these Addai haters. His TD run yesterday was unbelievable.

All real Colts can't wait to get Brown back... but only because Addai and Brown complment each other so well, and make each other better.

But to all you Addai haters (I'm sorry, all you Addai realists)... I just say "Children, please!" First game of the season, Colts trying to hang on against the Jags. Third and one, Brown to the left... chalked. Fourth and one, Brown to the right... chalked. Joseph Addai is not the Colts short yardage problem!!!!

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written by DZ, November 09, 2009

The close the punt gets to the endzone, the higher the odds of a touchback. That's the worst case scenario because it means the punt nets only around 20 yards or so.

Ask yourself, are you ever sad that a team punts the ball to Indy? Is there ever a circumstance on fourth and short where you say, "wow, I hope they go for it! I don't want to get pinned inside the five!"

Of course not. We expect the offense to at least change the field position. The Texans are a great passing team. You can't play it safe with a small lead.

...am I talking blasphemy
written by Doug England, November 09, 2009

Look, if Peyton gets injured... no Super Bowl asperations. I am painfully aware of that. (Shoot, the Colts probably couldn't even hold on and win the division without him.) And I'm generally all for Manning just "surrendering" and taking sacks.

So since you guys have not mentioned it (or any posters) I'm sure I'll get killed for this (and maybe rightly so) but on the third down play when Peyton did break out of the pcoket and commit to run, he can't slide down a yard from the first... he has to get that doesn't he? Am I the only one that thinks if he had just dived forward, he could have gotten the first down, without too much of a risk of injury?

Also, on the Reggie Wayne play, as I'm sure everyone has read by now... he WAS trying to throw the ball away. Egads!

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written by DZ, November 09, 2009

It was a tough call. If he had cut up inside, he would have had the first down. He slid because the dude was going to KILL him, and he wouldn't have gotten it anyway.

Given the line he chose, the slide was the best choice. He should have picked a different line. IF that's a playoff game, he takes the guy on. If he gets a concussion going for the first, they probably lose the game anyway. That's why they should go for it on fourth down anyway. It protects Manning in that situation by not forcing him to chose his health or a punt.

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written by C Biscuit, November 09, 2009

Regarding Addai: I guess I don't understand football even though I don't realy doubt Addai. Here's my scenario - If Addai is out for a game and Brown is healthy, is there any reason to think that the Colts wouldn't produce at least as well? I say no.

Look, Addai is a valuable, versatile guy. I agree with the 2-back philosophy. I love him on our team. He's been a good player for the Colts but that's about it. The Colts needs are a little different from most teams because they rely on RBs do be excellent blockers. But for me in terms of pure running ability he has been bit of a disappointment. He's never been a home run hitter. Nothing wrong with that I guess but he is what he is. And he's just not good enough to dismiss a talent like Brown.

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written by DZ, November 09, 2009

No one dismisses Brown. The fact is that Brown hasn't really been any better than Addai.

If Addai was hurt and Brown was the only back, my only concern would be that he wouldn't block as well as Addai. Joe is a complete football player. Brown is awesome, and we need him back soon.

The real story is why the line has been so bad. The Colts have drafted scores of new linemen and none of them have panned out at all. That is disappointing. They've tried to restock the line depth, but it has yet to produce even one competent (much less good) player. Polian has said that evaluating linemen is his weak spot as a talent scout. I'd say the last couple of drafts are bearing that out.

Ugoh and Pollack busting (and I think that is a mostly fair word) has really hurt this team.

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written by Merr, November 09, 2009

Very disappointed in those Caldwell decisions as well. Very excited by Caldwell's ability to have all 53 players ready.

Surprised you didn't note the excellent special teams coverage again. It's a big difference between 2008 and 2009. I used to keep my fingers crossed every time we punted or kicked off but I'm getting fairly confident in our coverage units. Jacoby Jones is a good returner and we held him in check.

same movie!!
written by Nacho from Buenos Aires, November 09, 2009

Great analysis of the game. sorry for all the stupid thoughts i ll write, but i feel very weird about the colts season right now:

my feeling is: "i ve seen this movie before"... i m just thinking which team is going to beat us in the first round of the playoffs: San Diego again? Patriots? Steelers?

i m wondering: wouldn´t it be better to lose the games you deserve to lose (MIA, SF, HOU)?? the colts are consuming all their "luck" in the regular season... it`s like consuming all your lives in the first screen of the mario bros, when you get to the second stage you are GAME OVER, inmediatly.

believe me i love the colts, and spent 4 hours of a sunny spring afternoon in buenos aires, watching the game on a little window on my PC via internet. sometimes i want the colts do not repeat the same formulas that makes them a fantastic regular-season team and one-and-out playoff team.

and all the stupid things i ve wrote above are because i am very very VERYYYYYY frustated with the running game... I can`t understand how a great group of coaches, a great management, and a great and trusted group of players cannot figure this out, through the years!!!

And i accept no excuses, sorry.

Look at the defense: Last year they were unable to stop the run. They worked it out, and know they are pretty decent on that phase of the game. With the very same players.

So where is the problem with the Running game?? I am not asking to be no.1 rushing offense, but at least something average.
Who cares an 8-0 team which is ranked in the last five in rushing offense??

OK, i ll calm down now and enjoy the season that is too short to start complaining this early.
(Apologize my stupid thoughts, I am pretty ignorant, as i learned football just from watching on TV and reading on the internet. I felt the necessity to write down my feelings because i can´t talk about football with noone at all in my life!. My apologizes for my english too! it`s not my first lenguage!)

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written by DZ, November 09, 2009

I've been quiet on the kick coverage because I'm trying to find stats on kickoff distance. I believe that the kick coverage improvement has a lot more to do with the switch to McAfee than any other single factor. He's killing the kicks, and that's led to the improvement in coverage.

On top of that, we say a major improvement last year in the kick coverage, so adding McAfee's extra distance was all it took to put it over the top.

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written by DZ, November 09, 2009

Nacho:
siempre podes escribir en castellano tambien. No me molesta para nada.

Here's the thing about the Colts in the playoffs: they ran out of 'luck' because they ran out of good players. Think about yesterday. Freeney played huge. Brackett forced the big pick. Take those guys away, and the Colts lose a heartbreaker. That's what happened in the playoffs. 2007 no Freeney. Loss. 2008 no Brackett. Loss. We got to January too banged up to 'force' the same luck we had in the regular season.

Donde vivis? Estoy en La Plata ahora. Me encantaria conocer otro hincha de Indy.

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written by Merr, November 09, 2009

I realize McAfee has made a big difference and I include him as part of the coverage units. They pass the eyeball test - at least my eyeballs. I think they've done a great job of replacing D. Reid's contributions.

Roof and sun
written by Tony Pierce, November 09, 2009

I think they elected to drive towards the sun in the first quarter with the thought of if they had to punt or kickoff then the Texans would have trouble finding the ball in the sun. You could clearly see the few times they did kick that way that the returner had his hand over his facemask like a visor tryuing to look for the ball. I think they were trying to create a muffed punt or kickoff return.

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written by DemondSanders, November 09, 2009

The kicks have been better, but the coverage has been too. They are busting through blocks and making plays. It's the total package right now...

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written by Nacho from Buenos Aires, November 09, 2009

DZ: Vivis en La Plata?? Leí que alguna vez estabas escribiendo desde Argentina, pero pensé que viajarías o algo así. Vivo en Villa Urquiza, en Capital. OK voy a hacer comentarios en Español, aunque en inglés me divierte y también me ayuda a practicarlo! Ojala alguna vez podamos mirar algun partido juntos, seguro que me podes enseñar muchisimo.

Regarding the post-season recent failures, i do not buy completely the injuries argument. In recent years Indianapolis have won dozens of regular-season games (many of those against great teams, and eventually champions, like 2008 reg-season win over Steelers) with many key players injured.
But they cannot keep that winning pace during playoffs. And i keep asking myself why is that.
And perhaps wins like yesterday against Houston are not that positive in the long run.

Anyway, hope we have another shot to the SB this year.

And by the way, what a season is having Austin Collie. The guy is doing really well.

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written by tg, November 09, 2009

I think Addai is more elusive in the open field, but obviously there are few times that this line is going to get him into that situation. I was at the game and I know that on at least a few occasions, he had chances to hit a seam on the stretches (you could see the gap) and he still kept trying to get the corner. Brown, on the other hand, gets North and South as quick as he can. This not only makes him seem to hit the holes better, but he then gets a second level that is moving laterally, creating the opportunities for breaking off a big run.

I do have to give Addai credit for the TD run, he went through 3 defenders to get there, but that is a goaline situation and he knows that he has no time to dance due to the defense being in a postion to close. He needs to have that same mentality in the middle of the field as well. I am not saying that he'll break off 4+ yards a crack then, but it will get him more 1-2 yard gains and less no gains and losses. (Then next year we can look for a new right guard)

Addai
written by sb, November 09, 2009

I don't get it with the Addai-haters. The first time I heard the complaint, I thought someone was being facetious. Now, it's just a really bad joke.

What are these people seeing that I'm not seeing? I'll admit that it's been a while since I coached and I don't break down film anymore. But I don't see any missed holes. If you watch much football, you'll see plays every weekend where a RB left yards on the table. I just don't see it from Addai.

Perhaps fantasy football is ruining the game. Maybe fans get confused into thinking that QBs, RBs, and WRs are solely responsible for their stats.

Someone needs to get a clue. The O-line is not good. Mediocre would be an upgrade. And their run blocking is a lot worse than their pass blocking. If the Colts had a rookie QB, Indy would have one of the very worst offenses in the NFL.

There's a good reason for the old axiom that games are won and lost upfront. Unless you have an 18 at QB, that's almost always true. Colt fans should be happy they get the rushing yardage they get, because the blocking is a lot worse than the numbers indicate -- and the numbers are bad enough.

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written by Uno Ocho, November 09, 2009

I'm not one of the Addai haters, but I still think he has trouble bursting north-south through holes from time to time. His receiving and blocking skills more than make up for it and a crappy offensive line makes him look worse than he is, but there is usually once per game where it seems like to me, he could turn downfield and gain a couple yards and doesn't.

I was having a discussion with a co-worker earlier and we both agreed that the Colts O-line is bad enough not even Adrian Peterson would look good running behind it and likewise, Addai running behind the Vikings line would make him one of the top running backs.

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written by Willy Duer, November 09, 2009

part of the reason they didn't was because they were driving into the sun endzone.

Bulls**t. They didn't get to the end zone or run any plays that could possibly have been affected by it. You're reaching.

And by the way, what a season is having Austin Collie. The guy is doing really well.

Yeah, except for those three drops he had yesterday, including the two that killed the first drive.

He's playing very well for a rookie though. Peyton is a great teacher/mentor, and Collie has been more of a first year presence than any of us expected.

Addai running behind the Vikings line would make him one of the top running backs.

Your co-workers are clearly wrong. It's not the O line. It's Favre. He makes the Vikings go. Haven't you heard?

No one dismisses Brown. The fact is that Brown hasn't really been any better than Addai.

Statistically, no, and that's on the line and his age. But obviously there are things that he has shown that he can do that Addai can't. He's a much harder and more decisive runner. There are situations where that can really pay off. If the line keeps improving (BBS has correctly pointed out that it is getting better - we're just still not confident in it, of course) they're going to end up being a great 1-2 punch.

Regarding punts, while I like your tactic of imagining how we'd feel about the other team punting, you should also emphasize the fact that statistically, it is almost always the right move to go for it, just based on probability of converting short yardage and expected return in points. Not to mention, in the first half, the D hadn't even given up a first down. Failing and giving them the ball in the 40 region isn't exactly a terrible worst case outcome.

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written by DZ, November 09, 2009

RE: drive one and the sun

I just watched the fourth down play in prep for 18 plays. Wayne broke open just as he hit the sun part of the field, but Manning clearly didn't want to throw the ball to him in that spot because he wouldn't be able to see it. If you have a game tape, check the high angle replay of that play (which they show after the Texans drive). Had Manning thrown that pass, Wayne could never have seen it as he would have been looking right back into the sun.

RE: punts
I've emphasized that out the Wazzo. People either buy into numbers or they don't. Everyone that knows the numbers all ready agrees with them. For everyone else, I make the emotional argument.

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written by npb1985, November 09, 2009

You're off base a bit in your "reasons to frown" assessment. The deep ball wasn't there because it was very well covered. I was at the game. Trust me. Peyton took what was given to him and thrived for the most part. And you say we don't have a kicker who can kick 48+ yards and will bite us in the end? I watched stover warm up and consistently hit 50+ yarders. Yeah we do have a kicker that can do that. Also, if you're complaining about CJ letting Mario Williams, a former no. 1 pick and pro bowler, get by him, then you're expectations are way off. CJ is not a better player than Mario and I'm glad he did as well as he did. There were definitely some errors that need to be fixed, but you're frown section is borderline panic. Way WAY overdoing it. We beat a very good possible playoff team who may have been the hottest offense in the NFL playing the biggest game of the team's history. No complaining about beating that.

As for Caldwell, I agree entirely. The fourth and one where peyton slid just short, we should not have punted. I figured it was obvious. Instead, we did, and the Texans drove and scored. PS, go easy on Caldwell on the Wayne pass, that was likely Moore's call.

The biggest coaching error I thought was not one play. It was the fact that we passed SO much, we became one dimensional and almost predictable, even with Peyton. That is part of the reason the pass game in the red zone struggled. Contrary to what you thought you saw, the run game WAS there. We just did not use it. We have to mix it up more against NE. Joe played great and his effort was off the charts, but we need Brown healthy next week.

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written by DemondSanders, November 09, 2009

Dude. Matt Stover is 41 years old. There is no chance in hell they are letting him kick a 50 yarder unless they have no other choice (game winner with no time left).

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written by DemondSanders, November 09, 2009

And DZ is correct about the 4th and 1 on the first drive. We obviously can't read Manning's mind, but the announcers made a big deal of the fact (ie they took the time to replay it two drives later) that Wayne's route was inhibited by the sun.

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written by DZ, November 09, 2009

I don't the overall tone of this piece was "borderline panic". I acknowledged the quality of the win, but I still have to be honest about the problems.

RE: Deep ball. I'm still watching the tape. Remember that I always reserve the right to change my mind after watching the tape. The coverage appeared to be good down field and Manning didn't have a ton of time. I don't care what the cause of it was, it wasn't there and we missed it. It felt like 2008.

RE: CJ He doesn't get graded on a sliding scale. If he can't protect against an elite pass rusher we face twice a year, he's not an answer at LT. I'm not through the tape yet, but he had a rough day run blocking too.

RE: Stover. They clearly don't feel comfortable with him kicking from long range. A 48-50 yarder should have been tried if they thought he could hit it.

RE: The Wayne pass. I've been pretty restrained on it. Read the in game blog. I didn't kill him at all. Still, you don't try that play without telling the HC first. I'm sure Caldwell knew way ahead of time it was coming.

RE: run game early. Ive only watched the first half, and on several key plays it most certainly was NOT there. Addai was blown up in the backfield several times before he even had a chance. It opened up late as the Texans adjusted to the constant passing. The balance thing is a tough call. On one hand, you want to stick with what works, but on the other, you have to have balance.

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written by DemondSanders, November 09, 2009

Stover wished a couple kicks in vs. the Niners. The trust level is definitely not there yet from the coaches. But again, given his age I don't know that 45+ yard kicks are ever going to be a comfortable option.

Assuming older=weaker (and unless you're on 'roids it always does) longer kicks force you to put more torque than normal on your kicks... which leads to misses.

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written by Willy Duer, November 09, 2009

If Wayne's route was anything but a clearing pattern to get Addai and/or Clark open, I'm a bit disappointed in their decision making. Once they chose to go that direction, they should've been smart enough not to run routes to that part of the field.

Good call about the emotional argument.

Sun?
written by J.C., November 09, 2009

An NFL receiver should catch a ball in the sun.

Outfielders have been doing it for a hundred years.

That's borderline childish.

Gets worse and worse here sometimes.

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written by DZ, November 10, 2009

You missed the discussion earlier. The sun in LOS with the roof open at that hour isn't 'natural sun'. The way the roof works it creates weird light/shadow patterns that are different than what you get in a normal outdoor setting.

Think about what happens to a hitter around 4:30 PM when the shadows in most ball parks start to cross the mound. Until they cover home plate, pitcher become invincible. It's not just the sun, it's the sun/shadow effect that makes it impossible.

FO Stats Given Too Much Weight
written by J-DC, November 10, 2009

For someone who hates the patriots so much (and believe me, I do too), you put an inordinate amount of stock in what the people at Football Outsiders say. Aaron Schatz is the biggest patriots homer this side of Bill Simmons. While I find their various analyses interesting, you always gotta keep in mind who is writing it. Also, how could you be rooting for Pittsburgh?????? The Colts play Denver, and will demolish them. Always root for the Steelers to lose - always!!!

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written by DZ, November 10, 2009

Don't be too hard on Schatz. 1. He doesn't cook the books. 2. He's always been pro-Manning. He's one of the only analysts out there who has already told the truth about Manning in the playoffs. He's consistently trumpeted that Manning has always played pretty well but has been horribly unlucky and let down by his teammates.

It's hard rooting for Pittsburgh, but I sleep better having two games in hand over the whole conference.

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written by J-DC, November 10, 2009

Fair enough on Schatz. But I still can't root for Pittsburgh in the game knowing the Colts play the Broncos and need the steelers to lose more than they need the Broncos to. Having said that, go Bengals this weekend. (I also harbor a very large amount of hatred still from the 2005 season playoffs - I will never forgive the Steelers, nor Nick Harper for running directly at Roethlisberger while he was laying on the ground)