Behind Enemy Lines
Written by Nate Dunlevy   
Thursday, 12 November 2009 06:20

I thought I'd take a break from the Colts/Pats nonsense to review one of the great movies of all time starring Owen Wilson.

Meh, who am I kidding?  There are no breaks from the War of 1812 this week, people.  It's wall to wall mayhem.  Here's the first of two collaborative efforts with Patriots Blogs.  I traded questions with Bruce at Patriots Daily.  You can read my responses to his questions here.  Here are my questions to him, with a recent revelation that occurred to me about the 2009 Pats tagged on at the end.

18to88:  1. The Pats rank just 20th in the league in Adjusted Sack rate.  I know they got a haul for Richard Seymour, but would they be better right now if he was still on the team?

PD:  Nope. Seymour was a tremendous player, but defensive line (and offensive line) seems to be a position that the Patriots are good at developing. Mike Wright has stepped in and played well, Jarvis Green is solid, and rookie Myron Pryor has been pretty good as well. I don't see that Seymour would've made a substantial difference in the results thus far. The Patriots pass rush has been slow to develop, but they're been bring more safety blitzes the last few weeks, with pretty good effectiveness.

18to88:  2.  We hear a lot of good things about the Pats rebuilt secondary.  What can you tell us about the back four?

PD:  It's more than four, really. Veterans Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden were brought in to bring experience and stability to the position, and while Bodden has been pretty solid, Springs has seen his playing time diminish in recent weeks. Rookie Darius Butler has impressed with his speed and ball skills, while second year corner Jonathan Wilhite has started in place of Springs. We're very glad overall that the days of Ellis Hobbs and Deltha O'Neal are over.

The real revelation has been at safety where the two Brandons have made a huge impact. Third-year safety Brandon Meriweather has emerged as the top playmaker/ballhawk in the secondary, and even though a Boston writer said earlier this season that he is still closer to Donna Reed than Ed Reed, Meriweather has gotten better and better, and become a leader on defense. The other Brandon, McGowan, has become the Rodney Harrison-type hard hitting, close to the line safety that the Patriots really needed. He's been perhaps the biggest surprise of the season for the Patriots, and has put former starter James Sanders, who just signed a three-year extension in the offseason, on the bench. Rookie Pat Chung has had a sack from the safety position in each of the last two weeks, and has seen his playing time increase as well.

18to88: 3.  There are currently four teams with two losses in the AFC.  What does this game mean to the Pats?  How important is playoff positioning?

PD:  This game is huge to the Patriots. They really, really need it. Their two losses were both to AFC opponents, including Denver, so they can ill-afford another conference loss at this stage, especially with Pittsburgh getting their act together. The Patriots aren't the dominant road team that they were in the past, and really need to get as high a seeding as possible. They also need this game just to show that they are indeed once again a contender and to make a statement. It will be a tough assignment however.

18to88:  4.  NE is now #1 in offensive sack percentage after being 26th last year.  Has the line improved that much or did Cassel really just hold the ball forever?

PD:  Like most things, it's a bit of both. Like Manning, Brady has the ability to avoid the sack, either by throwing the ball away or shuffling around just enough in the pocket. Cassel was a young and inexperienced quarterback, who improved greatly as the season went on. Most of those sacks last year were at the beginning of the season when Cassel was still finding his way as a QB. On the line, they've back to the QB they've grown used to, and have protected him pretty well. Rookie Sabastian Vollmer has played for the injured Matt Light the last few weeks, and has done well, but faces a huge test this week against Freeney and Mathis.

18to88:  5.  How much does Randy Moss have left in his tank?  He's on pace for 98/1400/10 which is another great season, and similar to 2007 in all respects but TDs.  Why the scoring drop?

PD:  I think the TD's are bit low due to Brady's struggles in the first few weeks. Brady's accuracy was off in the early going, and he just flat-out missed Moss on a few plays that would've been TD's in the past. I think you'll see his TD numbers go beyond 10 by the time the season is over. He's got plenty in the tank, and while much of his game depends on his freakish physical abilities, Belichick and Brady have both called him the most intelligent receiver they've been around, which means he can out-think the defender as well.

18to88:  6.  Is it embarrassing having a "Brady Rule"?  Do you think it's a good change and will it actually help QBs or just punish defenders who are falling down and can't control where they land?

PD:  No more embarrassing than the "Chuck Rule" point-of-emphasis that Bill Polian had his all-powerful NFL competition committee push through following a Colts playoff loss to the Patriots.Seriously, if that had been Peyton Manning on the end of the Bernard Pollard lunge that wrecked Brady's knee, I think you'd have Colts fans in full support of the "Manning rule." I can tell you that the Patriots certainly haven't gained any benefit from this rule, though the publicity of the media and Ray Lewis' crying about Brady "asking" for calls would tell you otherwise. The Patriots have a lot more of these penalties called on them (not undeservedly, either) rather than for them.

18to88:  7.  Your prediction for Sunday?

PD:  I'm not quite sure the Patriots are ready to play at this level just yet. There are very few remaining Super Bowl veterans, and this is one of the first "big" games many of these guys have played. I'm going to go Colts 24, Patriots 16

My special thanks to Bruce at Patriots Daily. He's obviously a civil and level headed guy, which sucks because that means I can't say anything snarky to him. 

As I was pondering the Patriots secondary, it occured to me to list the QBs they've faced this year:
Trent Edwards, Mark Sanchez, Kyle Orton, Joe Flacco, Kerry Collins/Vince Young, Chad Henne, Matt Ryan, Josh Johnson.  The highest rated guy on the list is Flacco at 90.2.  Interesting.
Comments (53)Add Comment
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written by DemondSanders, November 12, 2009
"The Patriots pass rush has been slow to develop, but they're been bring more safety blitzes the last few weeks, with pretty good effectiveness."

LOL. So the pass rush isn't working? And you're forced to blitz more? And you don't miss Seymour?
J.C. loves'em
written by Doug England, November 12, 2009
J.C. has been raving about the Pats secondary in his posts all year. Has he been specific on which of those guys he is so high on? (And since it is J.C., maybe I should clarify that when I use the word "high", I'm meaning thinks they are a good player.)
Boy, were you honest...
written by Doug England, November 12, 2009
Wow... your answer to the Brady question... no sugar coating from you. (I love it.)
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written by DZ, November 12, 2009
Did you think I was one to pull my punches? smilies/wink.gif
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written by gizzardfanny, November 12, 2009
It's not like Manning has a history of exploiting blitzes, noooooo...

(First comment, long time reader, just wanted to show my appreciation of this blog. Fantastic job you do.)
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written by DZ, November 12, 2009
Thanks, that always means a lot.
Facepalm
written by Robert I., November 12, 2009
for saying that Polian pushed for a new rule. It was already there since the 70's, polian just made them enforce it
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written by JEM, November 12, 2009
Might as well get into the act...also a first-time commenter but longtime reader. Although some of the other blogs have more institutional support behind them, this is, by far, the best Colts blog for smart, interesting analysis.

Anyways, great interview. Can't wait for Sunday night.
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written by DZ, November 12, 2009
Re: Robert...
He said it correctly. He called it a "point of emphasis" instead of a rule change. He gets major credit in my book for catching that distinction.

Re: JEM
Thanks man.
Thanks
written by smonroe, November 12, 2009
Your last sentence makes me feel so much better about this game. Great interview, I don't know if this is a weekly feature (interview with an opposing teams blogger), but it should be.
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written by DZ, November 12, 2009
I do it whenever another blogger approaches me. We'll definitely do it for the Titans game. Most teams just don't have enough quality blogs to make it work.
Oh no...
written by Nickaveli, November 12, 2009
The Pats guy predicting the Colts to win, and by 8 points??? Well, that just makes me really damn nervous. lol. They are trying to catch us off guard.... I know I am stating the obvious, but this game is going to be a dogfight.
A quick comment
written by Dru, November 12, 2009
First, let me say I am a Patriots fan, came over from the link at PatriotsDaily.

I just wanted to point out that this blogger is representative of most patriots fans in that most of us respect the other team.

Over the years I have come to appreciate Manning and the colts because the games between the Pats and Colts have been some of the best I have seen (win or lose) and the rivalry only adds to my love of the game.

So thanks for taking the time to do this "Behind Enemy Lines" piece, because I always like hearing/reading rational thoughts from both sides in a game like this.

Here's hoping the Pats win, and we meet again in the playoffs.

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written by Susan, November 12, 2009
"I just wanted to point out that this blogger is representative of most patriots fans in that most of us respect the other team."

True...except for the ones who soil themselves anytime even slightly negative is written about the team.

Hmm. I smell doo-doo even now
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written by Attila, November 12, 2009
I guess Bodden will be on Reggie, and usually Reggie(or Peyton) is not great against tall, strong, press corners. Collie might have a hard time with those safeties or 3rd corners. So Garcon could be the key. He could easily outrun Springs or outmuscle Butler or Wilhite.
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written by PatP, November 12, 2009
Nice passive-aggressive nonsense you sneak in about QB rating because you need the last word.

The Colts have played exactly one guy higher rated than Flacco, Matt Schaub who but for a 42 yard missed field goal and 13 penalties on the Texans they would have gone to overtime with at best and who torched them for 311 yards.

Here are the QBs the Colts have faced and their rating: David Garrad (81.smilies/cool.gif; Chad Pennington (76.0); Kurt Warner (88.0); Matt Hasselbeck (88.0); Kerry Collins (62.0); Mark Bulger (68.2); Alex Smith (83.3) and Schaub (98.1)

Here are the QBs the Patriots have faced: Trent Edwards (73.smilies/cool.gif; Mark Sanchez (67.6); Matt Ryan (82.2); Tony Flacco (90.2); Kyle Orton (88.2); Kerry Collins (62.0); Josh Johnson (50.9); Chad Henne (77.smilies/cool.gif

Colts average 80.68/Patriots 74.09

Oh yeah, that 5.41 difference is huge in the rating system but considering the Patriots have given up 127 less passing yards overall and a 56% completions percentage to opposing QBs compared to the Colts 62.5% maybe it isn't all that significant. Oh, and the low guy on the Colts totem pole and the one guy they have in common, Kerry Collins, still managed to throw for 164 yards and complete 59% of his passes on the Colts. He was 2-12 with -7 yards versus the Patriots in being shutout.
kudos
written by bobfather, November 12, 2009
good stuff

very enjoyable read for fans of both clubs

go pats
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written by Attila, November 12, 2009
Hey PatP

Do you think, the
a.) Titans played as good, as a week before against the Colts, and the Pats defense is just so good?
b.) Titans had a totally OFF game, and completely gave it up and in depression they dropped every pass?
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written by Susan, November 12, 2009
You set him straight, PatP. Thank the Good Lord someone had the decency to right that wrong.

Newsflash: It's his website. He doesn't need the last word...he gets it.
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written by DZ, November 12, 2009
@ Pat P
1. It wasn't meant to passive aggressive. I just thought of it while I was writing up the piece, and had no where else to put the observation. I wish I had thought of it earlier to include in the piece.

2. Matt Schaub didn't exactly 'torch' the Colts. He posted a rating of 82.3 and 17 points. He's also one of the best QBs playing right now. Considering he has Andre Johnson on his side, I'd say that's a solid defensive performance. Schaub leads the NFL in yards and TDs.

3. You are really mocking allowing 164 passing yards to a QB playing at home and comparing it to his total in a road game in the snow? Weak.

4. In the end, all I did was point out that they haven't actually played a good QB yet. I didn't say they weren't good. I have no idea if they are good. Maybe the Pats secondary is incredible. I'm just saying that the guys they've faced aren't the best test. Holding Warner and Schaub's offenses under 20 points is more impressive than holding Josh Johnson's down.

I'm sorry I insulted the Pats by saying a list of the QBs they've played is "interesting". That really was classless. I apologize.

Nothing about the Patriots is interesting.

Happy now?
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written by PatP, November 12, 2009
Atilla. No, but it certainly an example of how idiotic it was to cite the QB rating to begin with.

Susan. No one said he couldn't have the last word. But it would seem pretty cheezy to not even bother to ask the guest blogger while citing idiotic points about QB ratings that don't display any significant difference between the teams and pretending it does.
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written by DZ, November 12, 2009
I didn't imply anything about comparing the Colts to the Pats with my statement. You did that.

I just thought it was interesting that Pats fans are convinced their secondary is really good when they haven't faced a good QB yet. It'll be interesting to see how they play against a good QB.

I spent a lot of time this week thinking about the Pats defense, and this morning it occurred to me the QBs they've played aren't very good. I wanted to note that. That's all.

I didn't say they weren't good.

I didn't say the Colts secondary was better.

I just said it was interesting. I'd think Pats fans would be interested to see their secondary play a good QB too.
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written by DZ, November 12, 2009
BTW: what you don't know is that we have a huge Pats fan who hangs out here every day. He bombards us daily with taunts about how incredible the Pats secondary is.
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written by Nacho from Buenos Aires, November 12, 2009
DZ: Muy buenas tus respuestas. Espero que la Defensa de Indy te haga quedar bien! Creo que ahi se define el partido. Coyer vs Brady. Van a tener que meter mucha presión a Brady por todos lados y no dejarlo ni pensar. Me gusta la secundaria juvenil de Indy, pero Moss y Welker son pesos pesados, en serio.
Peyton va a tener un buen partido. Los colts son favoritos y deberían sacarlo adelante. Creo que va a ser otro partido ajustado, pero que van a ganar. Parecido al de la temporada pasada.

Saludos desde Buenos Aires!!
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written by PatP, November 12, 2009
The point is Collins did better against the Colts than he did vs. the Patriots and this is the sole QB they have in common. As for Schaub, you want to take as small a sample size as possible to make your point seem good. His career rating is 89.6 and he's never been to the playoffs as a starter. His career rating is not that much different than he did vs. the Colts. The bottom line is there isn't a dime's worth of difference between the QBs the Patriots faced (including Flacco, Ryan-last year's offensive rookie of the year and Orton) than the Colts have faced. By the way, the QB the Patriots faced vs. the Dolphins has a higher rating than the the QB the Dolphins played vs. the Colts and yet the Dolphins scored 23 vs. the Colts and only 17 vs. the Patriots.

Good luck Sunday. You'll need it.
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written by DZ, November 12, 2009
Gracias, Nacho.

En serio, lo que me pone lo mas tranquilo es que aunque es un partido importante para los Colts, no hay razon de preocuparse si perdimos. Mientras que NE tiene que ganar si o si. Welker es un problema y sera interesante ver que como le controlamos.

No prestes atencion a quien es el favorito. Eso numeros no tiene nada que ver con nada sino stimular accion para que la misma cantidad de gente apueste en los dos equipos.

@PatP Again, what does that have to do with anything? Don't you think it's interesting the Pats haven't played a good QB? Aren't you curious to see how the secondary holds up against stronger competition. If so, then why get pissy with me?

If you aren't a naturally curious/interested person...then fine.
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written by Susan, November 12, 2009
Pat, this is why most people hate Patriots fans. You're reacting like a big baby throwing punches in a paper bag. The webmaster's tone is pretty light, he mentions that they have someone here who talks about the Pats secondary, hence his mention, and you're freaking out (and kind of Rain Man-ny) like you're on Meet the Press.
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written by David O Malley, November 12, 2009
Patriots fan - came over from the link on PD. Great pair of articles, by the way.

I might be alone in my opinion, but I think this is a statement game for both teams. I really don't think either has been particularly taxed by their schedules/opponents.

Bills, Jets, Falcons, Ravens, Dolphins, Titans, Bucs, Niners, Jags, Seahawks, Rams - 11 of the 16 games we've played collectively don't have winning records. To be fair, the Patriots lost one of those games.

Quite honestly, I'd expect the Colts to win this one - they're at home, and the Pats secondary just hasn't faced anyone in Mannings league to date. The Patriots settle for FG's too much, which has been (IMHO) the biggest problem thus far.

I think the Patriots are really up against it, we'll need to play and coach a perfect game, and have all the pieces come together to get the W.

Really looking forward to it, though.
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written by PatP, November 12, 2009
Seriously, Flacco and Ryan aren't good QBs but Schaub is? Why because of 8 games worth of "QB ratings"? Are you serious? So its "interesting" that the Pats haven't been tested, but the Colts have been tested? Really?

Give me a break. The Pats have faced 2 guys who were in the Pro Bowl last year (Ryan and Collins) the Colts also 2 (Collins and Warner). The Pats have faced 3 guys who were in the playoffs last year, the Colts 2.

What's "interesting" is there is little difference in the level of who they have faced this year and you keep pretending there is.
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written by DZ, November 12, 2009
Sigh, I never acted like there was a difference. I never once compared the Colts secondary to the Pats. But since you bring it up:

Matt Ryan career rating (24 games): 85.7
Joe Flacco (24 games): 84.2
Matt Schaub (69 games): 89.6

Matt Schaub is a better QB right now than either Ryan or Flacco.
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written by DZ, November 12, 2009
I'm also not the one claiming the Colts have a great secondary. Indy has a solid secondary aided by good pass rush from the front four.

If your entire claim that the Pats have a great secondary is based on comparing it to the Colts who start two rookies at corner...I'd say that's weak at best.
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written by PatP, November 12, 2009
As I said, there is little difference. And I'll take starting playoff appearances for Ryan (1 for 1) and Flacco (1 for 1) vs. Schaub (0 for career) anytime as proof who the good QBs are.
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written by DZ, November 12, 2009
Yes, because as we all know Joe Flacco just carried the Ravens to the playoffs last year.

Get a clue.
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written by PatP, November 12, 2009
The mighty Matt Schaub. Interesting.

Wonder what the 13 penalties did and maybe the Colts and their great secondary would be 0-1 vs. that tremendous QB. Interesting.
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written by DZ, November 12, 2009
The Colts don't have a great secondary. I never, not one time, said they did.

The Texans penalties were almost all on their defense.
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written by jpjandrade, November 12, 2009
This game is going to be absolutely awesome. Look at how much discussion is going on. Doesn't matter if it's not an important game for the Colts, playoff wise (which I disagree, the tie break is really important!), it's the test for both teams. If the Colts lose the game, I can see every writer going on about how the Colts had an easy schedule and how their secondary is completely trashed and won't be able to stop any team from now on - nevermind that this secondary is the one that played the whole year. I also see the Colts leaving every single power rankings no 2 spot and going below 4th while the Patriots skyrocket. And last, but not least, everyone will blame this on Manning, of course.

No sir, this is not an unimportant game. This is about hating Tom Brady. This is hoping he crashes and burns. This is about Manning taking Brady's 3 superbowl rings and shoving them up his ass.

Can't wait for sunday night!
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written by J.C., November 12, 2009
You guys are all such bitches.

To the poster who asked if JC has mentioned, by name, the DB's that I liked. The answer is yes.

Not only do I name them regualarly, but I also name where they were drafted.

DZ who the f**k have you guys played? NOBODY!

I think it's 'interesting' that your whole schedule is weak, soft mush and we're gonna stomp your ass in your own park.

I never said we had a dominant secondary - but I HAVE been saying how much more athletic we are compared to years past and how we match up with Indy moreso this year than any team since 2003.

How's my contest coming along?
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written by DZ, November 12, 2009
Your contest is going great actually. It was a really good idea. I'm running it on Sunday.

As for the rest...we're about to find out.
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written by AnHero, November 12, 2009
Chuck rule?

You mean the Mel Blount rule?

That had been in effect since 78?

Or am I missing something?
PatP
written by J.C., November 12, 2009
DZ is a narcissist.

He hates the Patriots to the point where the mere thought of them winning drives him to the point of total insanity.

He hates the fact that we've won more championships, that Tom Brady broke Manning's TD record (althought to be fair he did it in more attempts, kind of like Peyton Manning had a perfect regualr season in fewer games in 2004) and that our QB married Giselle.

He hates that Belichick is an atheist who doesn't bow down to the Lord Jesus Christ and still wins.

He's also a vehement Anti-Semite.

I made that last part up, but not really. He's from Indiana and runs a Christian Missionary in Argentina......he hates Jews.
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written by DZ, November 12, 2009
I give you a lot of rope around here.

Don't ever, ever say that I hate Jews again.

If you were anyone else, I'd ban you for that.

Seriously. That's the single most offensive thing you can say to me or about me.

Make up whatever other crap you want. I take Jew-hating seriously. I don't get religious here often, but I consider it a vile offense before God Almighty Himself.

Don't even joke with me about that.
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written by J.C., November 12, 2009
Whoa!

Struck a nerve there.

I offer a sincere apology bro, you know most stuff with me is a joke, that included.

I retract it.....and won't go there again.

I, honestly, thought you'd chuckle at that. I miscalculated and if you want to delete those posts please do.

Again, my apologies.
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written by DZ, November 12, 2009
Thanks. Didn't mean to freak.

I just really love Jews.
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written by DZ, November 12, 2009
By the way, I spend a good portion of every week having to convince people why hating Jews is evil.

Argentina really is crazy anti-Semitic. It's not just a stereotype.

It gets exhausting.
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written by J.C., November 12, 2009
Take it easy big guy.

Let's go back to football.

How many 'memories', aproximately, have you received since I wrote that to you wasted at 4:30 in the morning?
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written by DZ, November 12, 2009
I have about 13-15 that I'm planning on using.
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written by gizzardfanny, November 13, 2009
who the f**k have you guys played? NOBODY!

More winning teams (Cardinals and Texans) than the Patriots (Falcons).

So if our schedule is weak and soft, that must mean the Patriots' is even weaker, right?
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written by J.C., November 13, 2009
We played Baltimore and Denver too tough guy.
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written by DZ, November 13, 2009
Baltimore doesn't have a winning record.
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written by gizzardfanny, November 14, 2009
Funny you bring up Denver. You beat them, right?

I'm sorry, losing to a good team does not make you an elite team. It makes you a not so good team.
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written by J.C., November 14, 2009
Have Demond or DZ compiled an 'interesting' list of the ratings of Quarterbacks you guys have played, or does that not fit their agenda?

This site is becoming a bigger joke every month.

I mean....you guys actually have 'Dittoheads' who tell you, regularly, how brilliant and well done all your writing is.

Even when it's just hack drivel, which it is most of the time.

You two bitches talk about how a QB isn't solely responsible for wins and losses - THAT'S THE MANTRA OF THIS SITE - then compile an 'interesting' list of QB rating for teams we've played.

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written by DZ, November 14, 2009
If I was judging the Pats team, you'd be right. It would be stupid to say the Pats might not be good because they haven't faced any elite QBs. Good thing that's not what I said at all. Whew.

Instead, I was just noting that their SECONDARY which primarily defends PASSES hadn't faced an elite QB. I said it was INTERESTING because I'm not sure we know one way or the other how good they are yet.
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written by J.C., November 14, 2009
Ohhhhhhhhh THAT'S why it's interesting, because you don't know how good they are yet.

Now it makes sense.

I'm sorry, clearly I mistook what you meant.

Write comment

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