I've seen this somewhere before...
Written by Deshawn Zombie   
Monday, 09 November 2009 21:05

The Colts offense seems to be struggling in recent games, and Demond found one of the reasons why.  He mentioned it to me the other day, and when I did the math to check his claim, I was stunned to see how right he was.

I want to present you two WRs.  Guess who they are. (update:  I've now included FO numbers through week 9)

WR 1
Games 8
Catches 27
Yards 320
TDs 3
DVOA: -22%
Catch rate: 47%
DYAR:  -42

WR 2
Games 8
Catches 27
Yards 376
TDs 2
DVOA:  -14.5%
Catch rate: 51%
DYAR: -6

Raise your hand if you think Marvin Harrison played well in 2008.  No takers?
Now vote if you think Pierre Garcon has played well in 2009.  I assume some of you have your hands up.

By now you've figured it out.  WR 1 is Marvin Harrison through 8 games in 2008.  WR 2 is Pierre Garcon this year.  Remember that with Garcon you also have to factor in the 7 penalties he's accured this season. 

Almost all the improvement in the Colts' offense has come from Wayne and Clark elevating their game.  Those two are producing at an incredible rate, but in terms of the third and fourth options, the 2009 Colts are almost identical to the 2008 squad.  Garcon is the spitting image of 2008 Marvin Harrison.  For the record, let's compare Collie and Gonzalez:

Gonzo:  34, 412, 3 TDs, 28% DVOA, 72% catch rate
Collie:  32, 356, 4 TDs, 10.1% DVOA, 67% catch rate

Collie has filled in wonderfully in the slot for Gonzalez.  Gonzo was a bit better, but virtually identical. Now it's clear he was a better than Collie, but still in the ball park.

We need to get Gonzalez back and get Garcon off the field.  I like Frenchy.  He's playing hard.  He's improving, but he's just not there yet. He's hurting the offense.  When the offense was really clicking early in the year, he had a positive DVOA.  Since week four, he's been on a consistant slide. 

Normally, comparing a WR to Harrison is a compliment.  Not so in this case.  Now we know why the Colts didn't bring Harrison back.

They already had his clone on the roster.


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Comments (18)Add Comment
Correction
written by Robert I., November 09, 2009
They have the 2008 clone of Harrison. Any other year prior to his injury and this team would have rolled the texans and niners.
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written by Monkey Business, November 09, 2009
At the very least, Garcon's problems are fixable. Harrison just got old on us.
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written by Guy., November 10, 2009
Agreed. Garcon has been bad. I think everyone knows it, especially Manning, there's just nobody better right now. I remember looking at Manning's face when he dropped a quick slant pass that would have been a first down. It was like, "Why did I throw that? He's not going to catch that." At least Marvin could do THAT last year. I think Garcon needs some more quick screens and maybe an end-around (don't pass it, please!). He may have an attitude problem too. Probably a chip on his shoulder coming from a small school. Who knows. We need Gonzo immediately. And D. Brown. I don't think we win this week without Brown in there to help Joe.
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written by C Biscuit, November 10, 2009
Seems pretty clear that Garcon needs some more seasoning. I'd wager his route running is a good part of the problem as his two big TD's came on a screen and a fly pattern so not much timing involved. Also dealing with increased attention from defenses since his big plays. Should be really good to go next year since that's when WRs typically make the leap.
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written by DZ, November 10, 2009
Exactly. The arrow on his career is UP for sure.

Right now however, he's a liability.
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written by DZ, November 10, 2009
And we shouldn't sleep on how utterly amazing Collie's production is either. Stunning to get that from a rookie.
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written by DemondSanders, November 10, 2009
Marvin didn't get old so much as injured. Prior to Addai running up Marvin's backside there were very few signs of aging with 88.
I agree, but...
written by Doug England, November 10, 2009
(1) Collie's drop on the first drive of the game on third down was huge and really worse than any drops Frenchy has had. Furthermore, for a professional it was a relatively easy catch, and really unforgiveable. If Colie makes that catch, the Colts probably get points on that drive and the tone of the game is changed.

(2) In the past two games, Garcon has been open deep several times, and for whatever reasons, Peyton has missed him.

Now that being said, I can't wait to get Gonzo back, because I think the little nuances of the Colts passing game that make all the difference, will greatly improve.
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written by Guy., November 10, 2009
Why aren't we going with 2 tight ends? Wayne, Collie, Clark, and some other tight end, whoever wants it the most. Collie seriously can't play wide? Has anyone seen him do it? We'd have some serious play-action capabilities from that set. Clark would be open virtually every time. And if they try the nickel, run it right at them. It just seems to me like we go 3-wide most of the time simply to keep Collie in the slot.
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written by DZ, November 10, 2009
I think you hit the nail on the head. Collie CAN'T play out side. If he could, then he would already be playing there.

They don't want to take him off the field, but he can't play in the spot they have a hole.
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written by Guy., November 10, 2009
How about moving him over to Reggie's side in a two-TE set? Lol. Technically he's still in the slot. Could work for a big PA-pass. Or make it our base clock-killing offense. I don't think Gijon would object to playing a little fullback.
responding to Doug England's comment on Collie's drop on Sunday:
written by dwin, November 10, 2009
If it's the play I'm thinking of where he was running towards the far sideline and only got his left hand on the ball and with a defender directly behind him, the reason he missed that ball is because the defender was holding his right arm. We looked at it the play in slow motion, and if you look closely, you can definitely see the defender holding his right arm so he couldn't bring it forward to grab the ball with both hands. I'm surprised no ref caught the foul and puzzled why Collie didn't protest to the refs. We watched it three times in slow motion HD, so I'm certain his arm was held back.
...I'll bow to you
written by Doug England, November 10, 2009
I was watching the game in the corner of a sports bar with no sound... so if it wasn't as bad a drop as I thought, my apologies to Collie.

Hey I'm a big fan of his anyway, and I love his work ethic. (And I already expect him to catch everything he touchs.) My only point was that while Frenchy has been the primary culprit lately of substandard play, he's not the only one that has made mistakes and had drops.


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written by Attila, November 10, 2009
Although Garcon is not there yet, I have to say, the most bad throws go his way. I don't know if it's a bad route or what, but he had many uncatchable balls coming his way. He still looks good, compared to Roy W, TO, all of Cleveland's WRs, Braylon... Gonzo and Brown are needed though, very much.
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written by DZ, November 10, 2009
Peyton doesn't throw easy passes to covered men. If a guy is not open, he'll thrown low or outside, or to the sidelines to avoid the pick. I think you're instinct is right...Garcon hasn't had a ton of easy catches...but that means he's not getting wide open either.
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written by Guy., November 11, 2009
I think Manning often throws to the guy who SHOULD be open based on the coverage he sees. If he launches it deep to Garcon, it's because he is manned up with no safety over the top. It's still Garcon's duty to actually get open. There is very little time for the QB to decide who is actually beating their guy. You still have to make the throw. If you don't, they will play that single safety coverage all day long and you really won't have a chance in the run game. I think Collie is benefiting from playing in the slot. He gets nicklebacks covering him, and he is right in the middle of the field where Manning makes many of his throws. I think if Garcon and Collie's roles were reversed, we might have a different story as far as production. Now, with the drops, it's safe to say that Collie is the better receiver. Just don't overestimate him right now. Getting Gonzo back is going to be huge. I can't wait.
Bad WR play is not all the WRs fault
written by TNCOLTSFAN, November 11, 2009
You can quote your stats all you want but the truth is the bad numbers from Garcon extends from the bad play of Addai. Defenses are not scared of Addai and neither would i be if I were them. Not having Brown in the back field is the reason why our offense has struggled the past 2 weeks and has nothing to do with the receivers. When Brown is in the backfield it makes opposing defenses play us honest because Brown is a home run hitter where as Addai is lucky to manage 10 yards on a carry. If you look at the top running backs in the league they all have that same home run hitting quality that Brown has. Chris Johnson, Frank Gore, MJD, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice all have that ability to take it to the house on any given play causing defeneses to zone in on the run. Do you honestly think defeneses are scared of Addai? You can talk about Addais numbers versus Browns numbers all you want but that is irrelevant. Brown has the ability to go the distance where as Addai maybe can get 10 yards at the most. You add someone with the explosiveness in our backfield and it opens up the passing game and allowing Garcon to get downfield. Stop being so negative about the receivers on our team. Compared to the norm for young receivers they are a lot further along than they should be at this time. Addai is a great blocker and a great receiver out of the back field but he is not a running back that is feared in the nfl. What do the saints have that we dont? A running back that you have to prepare for and until we get Brown back in our backfield our offense is going to look the same as it has the past couple of weeks.
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written by DZ, November 11, 2009
Garcon's play dropped off before Brown got hurt. He was miserable in the Tennessee game.

I agree that Brown being hurt, hurts the team, and the overall run game.

"Home run hitting" is not nearly as important in the NFL as 'success rate'. Addai is basically a middle of the pack success rate runner right now.

The Saints also have viable options at WR. Defenses don't have to prepare for Garcon on the right side because he's playing poorly. Wayne is having a monster year. Clark is having a monster year. Collie is having the best rookie season for a Colt since Harrison. Only Garcon is playing below average football.

Blaming Addai for Garcon's poor play makes no sense.

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