State of the AFC

1. Indianapolis-The Colts remind me a lot of last year's Steelers. No run game, suspect line, great QB and defense. The Colts defense passes my 'eyeball test'. The offense does not. This team needs get Gonzo and Brown healthy. Assuming that happens, I think they represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. They are two games clear of the rest of the conference, so you have to like their chances at a bye or #1 seed. All other top contenders have two conference losses except Pittsburgh which lost a tough game with the Bears. They have allowed the fewest points in football. They have scored the 5th most. That's a great team. The future schedule is doable: NE, @Baltimore, @Hou, Denver. If the Colts can split those four games, they'll go no worse than 13-3 on the season.

2. Pittsburgh-They lost a fluky game to the Bears and at the gun to the Bengals. They may be better than they were last year, as now they can almost sort of run the ball. Anyone who watched them last night knows they are 100% legit. Polamalu is a force on defense. I'm not a little sad they aren't on our schedule this year. They beat the Vikings (fluky, I know, but that evens up that Bears loss), and have the third best point differential in the AFC. They have a very manageable schedule and stand to win 13 games, if they can go 2-1 verses Cincy and Baltimore (with two games at home). With one non-conference loss, they would force Indy to win 14 games to get the #1 overall seed.

3. New England-I'm still not sure what to make of this team. They've spent the better part of a month beating up the dregs of the NFL which masks some of the lackluster performances they've had. There's not much need to dwell on it though, we'll find out soon enough what they are. I don't think they are anything more than the third best team in the conference. They do have the second best point differential (which tells us who a team really is) in football, but that 59-0 win over the Titans sort of tilts the table. They are number one in DVOA as well, so I'm forced to conclude they are good. My eyes have told me otherwise, but I haven't watched them closely in a few weeks. They still play @Indy, @NO, @Mia, @Hou. I can't see them finishing better than 12-4.

4. Cincinnati-Don't sleep on the Bengals. They can run, pass and play good defense. They've gutted out some tough wins (and had a heart-breaker with Denver). They've actually allowed fewer points this season than Pittsburgh. It would tempt me to rank them higher, but they still play 5 of their last 8 on the road including @Pitt, @SD, @Minn, @NYJ. I can't see them doing any better than a 12-4 finish at BEST. DVOA doesn't think much of them right now, and they'll have to win some more of those close games to hang in the playoff fight.

5. San Diego-Yes, I have them ahead of Denver. It's the typical Chargers. They start bad, then they get a bunch of winnable division games, and make a hard push for the playoffs. I hate this team. I don't want to play them. I know that their point differential is one less than the Broncos though, and that they are moving in the right direction for the first time this season. They have a brutal slate in front of them, though. They have Philly at home, Denver on the road, and then @Dallas and Cincinnati. 11-5 would be a great record for them. 10-6 will win the division, if they can beat Denver.

6. Denver-Not buying it. Orton is an utter fraud. They put up 3 points on offense last night (could have been zero, but the Steelers dropped a pick on the first drive). They have to play San Diego, NYG, @Indy, @Philly. They'll probably drop another game to a sub par team because they'll have a game where they can't score 10 points. The Chargers game is key. If they can beat San Diego, they'll win the division. If they don't, they'll be forced to battle out the Texans for the final wild card spot. I think they've been exposed the last two weeks, and won't be surprised at all to see them go into a tail spin.

Lurking: Houston. I don't think the schedule works out for them to win more than 10 games.

By the way, the top 6 teams in the AFC are a combined 11-1 verses the NFC (the top 6 in the NFC are 10-5 verses the AFC).

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written by bob patterson, November 10, 2009

I was skeptical of your prediction of 13-3, but looking at the schedule, I think you are right.

If we win all the games we are supposed to win, and lose all the one's against "quality teams" then the worst case scenario = 12-4, which I can live with.

Even if we lose 3 out of 4, provided we beat the teams we should beat, we are still 13-3

If there is a catastrophic collapse then we should still finish 10-6 and hopefully hold on to win the division.

I guess the point of this was that it is nice to already have 8 wins. After Denver's epic collapse last year, you can't trust that you will win the one's you are supposed to.

Upcoming Games:

No way in hell we lose:
Bills
Sparkle Kittens

Unlikely to lose
Jets (frauds before injuries hit)
Titans (I sincerely hope these stirrings of hope are just death spasms, but given that this team has the same players, they could actually be a threat, especially if they get their confidence back by beating the jags, bills, 49ers.)

Likely to lose
Texans (they will be confident, can't really play a worse half of football again, and will be desperate and at home)
Patriots (duh)
Ravens (overrated defense, underrated offense)
Broncos (overrated and I want to move them down a category, but they have won 6 games against some strong teams and match up well on paper. Plus, mini belichek has probably given his players some anti-colts serum made from the blood of Ty Law.)

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written by DemondSanders, November 10, 2009

I've been targeting 13 wins as the number Indy will need for a couple weeks now. There are four 6-win teams behind the Colts. DZ is really high on the Steelers (he usually is), but I'm not. I think they are good, but will still drop a pair with stupid mistakes (sacks and picks). I see each of the four contenders finishing with 4 losses or more.

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written by sb, November 10, 2009

From the perspective of a bye, a W this week would be huge.

Really, simply holding serve at home would likely do it (i.e. even 4-4 as long as it includes wins over NE and Den. would likely do it. For sure if it includes @Balt)

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written by DemondSanders, November 10, 2009

4-4 is much sketchier (for the one seed at least) because then you bring in tie-breakers. 4-4 would mean 4 AFC losses, which is tough to overcome in a tiebreak.

But it is true that 4-4 could very possibly secure the two seed. Although I wouldn't bet my life on it because there are four six win teams.

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written by DZ, November 10, 2009

I would change the phrase "Likely to lose" to "40% possibility of losing". I don't think the Colts are 'likely' to lose any of those games.

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written by bob patterson, November 10, 2009

That's roughly what I had in mind.

0% = no way in hell

15% = unlikely

40% = likely

You are right that it would have been more accurate to use reasonable possibility.

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written by DZ, November 10, 2009

It's cool, I didn't want to nitpick, just clarify

Yawn part 2
written by Bob M, November 10, 2009

DZ, not sure if it's a sign that your post was boring or sheer genius, but since I agree with it all, I'll conclude genius of unparalleled proportions.

One item I elicited from FO's Playoff Odds page: Despite NE being ranked ahead of IN, Colts have a higher probability of winning the conf and SB. Their future schedules are abot the same, so why?

HFA. It is ours to lose and that (according to FO) gives us a couple percentage points advanatge for winning it all. Having played playoff games in NE and also in the dome, I'd have to agree. That makes this week pretty huge.

I officially think NE is a serious threat, along with Pit, maybe ahead of them. After that, Cin, SD, Den, Balt, Hou are all capable if the Colts make a few mistakes. But if they play mistake-free ball, I think only the Steelers and Pats can beat them.

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written by DZ, November 10, 2009

The simple reason for Indy's odds being better is that they are way more likely to have home field over the Pats by virtue of their two game lead. On top of that, any chance the Pats have of getting homefield depends on them beating Indy...but they have to play the game IN Indy.

That tips the odds for the Colts come playoff time. The Pats could well have to travel on the road for at least one game, and if they have to play wild card week, their odds automatically drop.

Colts Trivia Question
written by Zach Winningham, November 10, 2009

There is only one player from the Colts 1998 roster besides Peyton Manning that is still currently in the NFL. Can you name that player? HINT: He's a defensive end.

First one to answer without help from google wins. Honor system folks!

Totally agree with you DZ
written by dmstorm22, November 10, 2009

I fear Pittsburgh far more than any other AFC team (even those soulless Chargers who seem incapable of winning big games except for against us). Pittsburgh looked scary good last week. My only gripe is I would have Denver over SD. Denver really controlled that matchup in SD.

About NE. I love how Brady said that "Joey Porter motivated us." If that was a motivated Patriots team, that is really sad. They looked lethargic and unimpressive (save for one Moss play) against a slightly-above average Dolphins team. In '07, they were "motivated" by teams hating on spygate, and they spanked teams. In '09, they get "motivated" and beat 3-4 teams at home by 10. These are not the '07 Pats at all. Double Moss, pressure Brady, and you got their offense. You can hold them in the 20's easily with that formula. That's why I fear Pittsburgh alot more. You can hold them down too, but they can hold us down. They have a shutdown defense. The stats can say what they want, but I still don't think there is a better defense when the chips are down than the Steelers. Remember, alot of their defensive 4th quarter woes come when Polumalu was out and that perceived "4th quarter comeback" by the Chargers.

Anyway, about FO having us 4th and NE 1st and us having better playoff numbers. The reason, as DZ said, is that we would, more often than not in their projections, be the home team. Also, they might project NE to go down in DVOA the rest of the year. Alot of NE's DVOA greatness is purely on the Tennessee game and Tampa game, when they rolled over awful teams, including one that actually quit mid-game. They have not really been that impressive outside of those two games. They have played two teams over .500 (ATL, @DEN) and are 1-1. We have played two (HOU, @ARZ) and are 2-0.

DMSTORM
written by J.C., November 11, 2009

The fish physically dominated you f**king pussies for the whole game.

You think you're gonna have three huge strike scores against us with Dallas Clark?

You think you're gonna run the ball against us?

Isn't your whole secondary on IR?

Even at 8-0..........nobody is scared of you guys.

Nobody.

-1

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written by Bob M, November 11, 2009

trivia question: is it Bertrand Berry? No idea if he's still with the Cards, but if not I cannot come up with a name.

DZ, thanks for pointing out the prospect of another week of playoff games WC weekend. Even if that's chalked up as a 90% chance of winning, that's still a 10% chance of losing (I amaze me sometimes--guess I got that Nobel in mathematics for something after all!).

JC, pussies? Who are you talking about being pussies? The team whose leader begs for roughing calls and gets them? It's called working the refs and it's the cheapest way to win anything imaginable. He's tainted the perceived manliness of that entire organization.

Brady said it himself about Freeney last week. Paraphrasing, it went something like, "I fill my frilly panties with fudge just thinking about that big mean man rushing at me and me being unable to call a ref over to take care of my knee in time...." If you read it in the same voice Jame Gumb uses most of the time in Silence of the Lambs, you get the idea. Like when he's saying, "It puts the lotion on its skin or it gets the hose."

I understand he plans to have them pre-flag the DL just in case they get near him. Maybe during warm-ups. Come on, Maroney's healthy and had a big game last week, which means that historically, he's due to break a clavicle or something vs Indy. Fred Taylor just broke something reading this morning's paper.

I think Moss actually benefits from playing bigger DBs because his pushoffs just before the ball arrives have less visible impact. But when he flat-out plants our smurfs into the turf (think Otto being paved by the steam roller at the end of A Fish Called Wanda), the visual evidence will be overwhelming and the refs will have no alternative but to throw a flag... for roughing the passer, of course.

JC
written by dmstorm22, November 11, 2009

there is no point in arguing with you. None at all. Peyton will do all the arguing we need on Sunday.

BTW, none of our starting DBs are on IR. Our starters (considering Sanders had played only parts of two games) was Hayden, Powers, Bullitt, Bethea. Three of those will be playing, and Hayden is not on IR.

I'm not sure what Dolphins game you were watching. In what way did they dominate us?? We scored at will against them.

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written by J.C., November 11, 2009

We've handled Freeney before.

Run right at him, chip him when you need to.

All I'm saying is that it's a soft 8-0. Nobody fears Indy.

-1

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written by J.C., November 11, 2009

The one where they held the ball for 45 minutes.

That one......clown. The fish are the best team you've played all year, I don't care what record or stupid ass DVOA (which means NOTHING) says.

And Bob - please, write another 5,000 word dissertation on what a genius DZ is. Just so I can rip you for it.

-1

TOP means nothing
written by dmstorm22, November 11, 2009

we only had the ball for 15 minutes because Peyton had TD drives of 15 seconds, two minutes and three minutes. Its not like we were going 3 and out all the time. TOP is by far the most overrated stat of all time.

Also, Arizona and Houston are both better than Miami, and we beat them both, and killed Arizona.

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written by J.C., November 11, 2009

That's total bulls**t.

I've seen all three teams play multiple games, and the Fish every week (I live here).

They're five times the team Houston is and Zona f**kin blows too.

TOP might be overrated but when a team holds the ball that long it means you have problems getting off the field on third down.

If you have that problem Sunday we're going to bury your ass.

I think the Colts (other than Peyton.....he's gangster) are mush.

We'll double Dallas and make that French bitch and those other suckers beat us.

-1

Hey DZ
written by J.C., November 11, 2009

Can you break down for me what the percentages are of me winning a fist fight with DMSTORM at 2,500 feet above sea level while reading an overly prolix essay written by Bob with my left hand while running the stretch play?

Thanks bro.

JC
written by dmstorm22, November 11, 2009

PUT THE GLASS DOWN!!
PUT IT DOWN!!
ANHEISHER BUSCH DOES NOT OWN YOU!!
IT DOES NOT OWN YOU!!

DZ
written by J.C., November 11, 2009

You're not sure what to make of our team, fair enough.

I'm no expert either....but I CAN tell you this.

By the end of the season, no matter what our record, we will have played Atlanta, Baltimore, @ Denver, @ Indy, @ the Saints, the Fish and Jets twice (both better than anyone gives them credit for) and @ Houston.

You get us, Denver and the Jets home.

Now I know it's not your fault, you didn't make the schedule, but maybe you guys can see where I'm coming from when I say you're not that intimidating.

And I'm going to write this in CAPS because I want you to remember it.

THIS PATRIOTS TEAM MATCHES UP BETTER WITH THE COLTS SINCE ANY PATRIOT TEAM EVER.

TH

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written by J.C., November 11, 2009

DZ read my email.

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written by Willy Duer, November 11, 2009

I don't know... I think those 03-04 teams matched up pretty damn well, and 07 too.

I still don't know much about your defense, but much like 07, it's the offense that worries me. The corners are rookies. Good rookies, but still rookies. Tim Jennings will be playing a lot too. I can definitely see some long sustained drives, just the high percentage tough to defend short routes chipping away up and down the field. Quick enough releases to avoid the pass rush and enough of a talent advantage to win the battles between WR and the DBs.

The Colts offense isn't playing well enough to beat that if the Pats offense plays well.

That said, I understand that they're not a scary 8-0 team, but they're still good. The Pats could be 8-0 right now and we wouldn't be especially scared of them either. No team this season is totally dominant.

1990 Bills Giants SB
written by Bob M, November 11, 2009

JC,
Regarding your threat of TOP domination, I will take a page from the Bellichick SB playbook from two decades ago, when he (or was it Parcells?) said "If Thurman Thomas runs for 100 yards, we win." If the Pats spend their game-time slowing things down, running, taking 5 yard shots, I think the game tilts in Indy's favor. Same if our guys dinked and dunked. If they both dink and dunk, then I guess whoever slips in the most plays over 30 yards wins.

These are two offenses that thrive on big plays as well as the threat of big plays. They can grind out 12-play drives if need be, but if your opponent puts a knife in your heart in just 3-4 plays (each team can do it) you have to head back out to the field to grind grind grind. Both teams seem to prefer to be that knife. Have the Pats been running no-huddle a lot this year? That benefits Indy when they DO grind because the D cannot substitute (unless Willie McGinnest or his friends from SF show up). Gass the D. I assume that works okay for the Pats too, if TB is allowed to call his own plays, which seems doubtful.

So on long drives, if the odds of a fumble or int or negative play are, for argument's sake, 1/2 of a percent on each play, then a 12-play drive gives you a cumulative 6% chance of something bad happening. The Colts have and will continue to take them odds. We DO have problems with 3rd downs defensively, but it's like a recurring rash--unpleasant to see, but non-lethal. Enjoy your TOP.

I know you like to dismiss FO's stats and a whole bunch of other feces at that site, but the drive success rate page has some very basic, irrefutable data such as number of drives. Guess what: Indy has the fewest in the NFL once more but once more are among the league leaders in scoring, score differential, and wins, so few drives and inferior TOP are not a problem.

Team similarities: the two teams' overall point differential is one point off and Indy's D has been stingier.

Then if you go to FO's main DVOA page, even if you don't buy the concept all the way, their D's and ST's are nearly identical statistically. Now the data may be wrong or skewed, but assuming it's skewed the same for 32 teams, that still leaves the two teams' D and ST squads about even. Of course diving down further suggests that the Pass D and Run D are flipped, with Indy having a better Pass D. Which do you think is more important?

The Pats O is marginally superior to the Colts O per FO.

Call HFA an equalizer and you have a push.

My biggest question is if it will end up 17-14 or 30-27?

BTW, the fish with Henne look tougher to me than the fish with Penny. Chad's history was that he was uber-efficient and avoided mistakes. Not this year. And then it ended. We played the Penny version.

Okay, defensive strategy: you double Clark and Wayne, which leaves Collie and Garcon singled, 4 guys rushing, and one guy in the middle ground covering the RB (assuming he's not needed for pass pro, which is a huge assumption). No security blanket deep? If Peyton from weeks 2-6 shows up, I laugh at double teams. If Peyton from the last two weeks shows up, dink-and-dunkville. Per FO's charting, the Pats are average against TEs (and Clark is the best) and 31st ranked covering RBs out of the backfield--that's one of the brighter spots for our RBs. So maybe you guys should just double everybody except Frenchie. See how that works.

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written by J.C., November 11, 2009

That's the thing Bob.

Our Dime Package is the best in the NFL.

We'll do EXACTLY what you said and do it will.

I've been touting our young, athletic, DEEP AS f**k secondary for months.

You'll get to see them first hand Sunday.

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written by J.C., November 11, 2009

And don't double Clark.

If you need to double a tight end you don't have the personnel to win in the NFL.

Single Clark with one of our ELITE Safeties (Merriweather or McGowan), Double Clark and let Frenchie and that other fag beat us.

All while stuffing the Colts devastating running game.

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written by J.C., November 11, 2009

From two posts ago do it *well

Not will.

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written by Willy Duer, November 11, 2009

Learn how to type, retard.

Kidding.

It's interesting that the Pats have so quickly gone from a hurt and troubled secondary to a super deep elite secondary, if they are as good as you say they are.

It seems like both these teams have had multiple years where they have had to pull scrubs in off the street to play DB, but when the injury luck levels off, things change a whole bunch. The Colts have 3 regulars out but are still deep enough that the top 5 guys this weekend are only a medium sized concern. (One more injury, though... look out. We might have to see what Hank Poteat is up to.)

How does that dime defense defend the run? Not that I have any confidence that 5 OL can block 3 linemen and Mayo...

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written by J.C., November 11, 2009

Springs (FA), Bodden (FA), Merriweather (#1 pick), Butler (#2 Pick), (Wilhite #4 pick) Chung (#2 pick) Wheatley (#2 pick) and McGowan who is an absolute ANIMAL over the middle that will HURT Pierre Garcon.

Hurt him. He was a young safety on those bad ass Bears D's a few years ago but got IR'd back to back.

This is the best I've felt going into a Colts game since the 03 playoffs when we al knew you were a dome team bunch of bitches that had no shot that ay.