Take Aways

First thoughts from the aftermath of Sunday's 18-14 win over the 49ers. As always, all opinions and identifications are temporary until I watch the tape later this week.

Reasons to Smile:

7 and 0. Combined with the Broncos' loss, Indy now has a one game lead on the rest of the conference.
The run defense, with one notable exception, played very well. Aside from the one run (more on that later), the SF backs carried 16 times for just 39 yards.
Joe Addai played a whale of a game. The Colts had to leave him in to block on virtually every pass play, and he did so valiantly. There was almost no running room all day long, but Joe did a little bit of everything. If I'm giving out game balls, he'd get mine.
Reggie Wayne continues to prove just how good he is. That was an incredible game winning TD catch.
Two forced turnovers. Ataboy, Zomibe.
Mathis and Freeney. Every time you need them, they show up. If Mathis doesn't also make the Ring of Honor, they should take it down. He's made more game winning/saving plays than any defender in Colts' history not named Freeney. He's incredible. His sack came on a three man rush.
64.5% passing and 347 yards has become a bad day.
Pat McAfee. Wow. With one exception, he had a huge day.
Amazing effort by Dawson to try and run down Gore on the long run.
:26 Three time outs. Three points.
5:45. Two time outs. They never saw the ball.

Reasons to Frown:

More mistakes by Garcon. I know he made a huge first down catch, but his route on a bomb late was horrid. He also picked up another penalty. At some point, he has to stop making big mistakes.
Hank Baskett. Get well soon, Gonzo. If he makes either of his very makeable plays, perhaps this game isn't even close. Terrible.
Bethea has to catch that pick. Shades of 2007 where Brady hit him in the navel with a pass that would have iced the game. I guess that's why he's a safety.
Powers/Bethea's double whiff on Gore. That one play is what most people will take away from that game nationally. People will assume the 49ers controlled the ball and the clock. They didn't. Not even close. There was just sloppy tackling. Did anyone see who got pancaked on that play?
The "Brady" rule call on Session. I hate that rule. Hate it.
Pollack giving up two sacks. I don't see that he's getting better. The protection was spotty all day. More on this later.
No holes in the run game. Against three dudes milling around in a standing position before the snap, you should be able to hit for big run gains. Addai was running hard directly at the holes. He did no dancing. There were no holes. This line can't run block even a little.
4 field goals. Turn even one into a touchdown, and this game is a walk.
The dives by the 49ers defenders. That one linebacker saw they couldn't make their substitutions so he dropped like he was shot. When is the league going fine/penalize teams for this nonsense?
The roof. It's not the elements. That's fine. It's that it creates a weird in and out of the shadows effect. I agree with Demond. Leave the roof closed for 1 PM games.

Best Call:

Going for it on fourth and inches. The only way to lose that game is to get a FG blocked, or to have a kickoff run back. Good call going for it.

Worst Call:

:06 left, ball at the 12. There's time for one more play. It's nit picky, I know, but if you lose by a score, going straight for the FG there will keep you up all week.

Reasons I'm Flyin':

The defense won this game. Tremendous effort. The Colts now lead the NFL in fewest points allowed. This D is legit. Zero second half points. 3 turnovers, 4 sacks. One bad play and one bad drive are no big deal. Shutting down a team when trailing in the second half...very big deal.
The final drive was the kind of drive we have to have to win playoff games. If you get the ball back with the lead and less than 6 minutes to play in the game, you have to ensure the other offense never sees the field.
This team has some serious leadership. Wayne. Freeney. These guys are banged up, and they went out made huge plays.
The Colts won against a gritty opponent on a day they didn't play their best.
Gonzo should be back soon. That will help.
Half back pass trailing in the fourth quarter? Our coach has stones. Good on you, Jim.

Reasons I'm Dyin':

The deep ball wasn't there all day. Some readers speculated that Manning's knee was acting up. It did look eerily like last year. He did get Friday off, which raised eyebrows at the time. The deep ball wasn't there all year last year, and when it came back this year, the difference was striking.
Hayden got hurt again. The young corners really held up remarkably, but I'm beginning to wonder when this secondary will ever get healthy. Houston, New England and Baltimore are up next. We need all our corners.
Houston is really playing well. A loss is coming for the Colts. It's just a matter of when. That's ok, it's the NFL, they are going to drop a couple of games. I'd sleep better if next Sunday isn't one of them.
The O-line. It's just not right. Indy should have been able to run the ball against that meandering front. The fact that they couldn't worries me. Deeply.

The Bottom Line:

This was a good week for a wake-up call. The road gets tough from here on out, and it's good for the team to have faced a challenge. The Vikings are pretty good, and they needed a hail mary to beat these 49ers at home. We are still up three in the loss column on the Texans, and now one over Denver and two over Pittsburgh and the Pats. I've said all year that I thought the D had a chance to be special, and I saw nothing today that would dissuade me from that position. Peyton Manning played one of the best 'bad' games you'll ever see. It's a good win. A little 2008 for my tastes, but we'll take it. This team can still get better but if you want to sleep at night, ask yourself this question: is this team better than the Steelers were last year? They were the best team I saw all last year. I think this Colts' team is better. It's not flawless. But it's still the best team I've seen in the AFC at least, if not the NFL.

Sixteen wins in a row. It boggles the mind. Too bad it means nothing other than we have one incredible football team in Naptown.

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written by npb1985, November 01, 2009

Addai definitely hit the film room and improved greatly from the twinkle toes we've been seeing. I know his stats were almost identical to last week, but think about it. Last week was against the reprehensible Rams. This was against the #6 run D. Not too bad. Still, can't wait for Brown to get back.

I don't think Peyton's knee was the problem. I think he may have been recovering from being sick. He looked a little fluish.

Great win, though. We played pretty crappy, but showed how much heart we have and can grind out a win, regardless of how we played for the majority of the game. I hope Hayden is okay.

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written by Dave_H, November 01, 2009

The only area that has me concerned is the running game. In my estimation it has been so bad for so long, I'm a broken record on that subject, so I'm glad you brought it up first this week.
I'll steal and paraphrase a line from Kravitz.
At some point you have to question what you are doing, and with whom you are doing it. Whether we are at that point with the Colts run offense or not, I'll let other people chew that bit of fat.

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written by Attila, November 02, 2009

The 49ers are 2nd in run defense. The OL played more, than OK. Even in pass protection, Peyton just waited too long on some sacks.

In a way, this was very similar to the San Diego game from January (front 7 showing all kind of weird looks) and Peyton reacted the same way, being off. He has to get better in that, because that will be a blueprint for some opponents.

Also, the ball was snapped with 3 seconds remaining on the play clock most of the time. Peyton has to be less predictable with this.

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written by sb, November 02, 2009

Peyton was clearly not on his game. Sometimes a QB will overthrow balls like he did a few times because his arm is bothering him and he's trying to compensate. Who knows why 18 missed a few yesterday. Had some bad drops too.

The O-line is the Indy O-line. Same old, same old.

A couple of things to add
written by Chip Bennett, November 02, 2009

1) The FOX coverage of the game was simply horrible. They continually showed wonky camera angles during live broadcast, and almost *never* showed Colts replays.

(Did Baskett really drop that pass over the middle? Who knows; we didn't get to see a replay. Did Frenchie really not get two feed in bounds on the sideline catch? Who knows; we didn't get to see a replay.)

2) How can Keiaho get called for a PF for losing his balance and falling into Smith, yet some San Fran defender flies through the line and hits an already-sacked, already on-the-ground Manning, hitting him IN THE HEAD in the process, and *not* get a PF call?

Call both, or call neither. Just be consistent.

As for what's already been mentioned: I think the O-Line was the problem yesterday. Manning looked like he had less time to throw, even by his standards - and Addai almost never had any running lanes. (He rarely got hit in the backfield, though that may have more to do with the defense starting half their front standing, rather than in a stance.

In the end, the Colts got the win.

If we win our next five (HOUx2, NE, DEN, BAL), we have almost locked up everything already (TEN is in there too, but can I chalk that one up as a win already?

).

Here comes the fun part of the schedule. We'll really get a handle on what potential this team has.

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written by DemondSanders, November 02, 2009

I didn't think Manning looked off. It was easier to tell in person, probably than on television. There were DBs all over the field! Usually six of them in coverage. He had nowhere to go with it, and I think he was being careful early on with his throws. He was putting balls to the outside of the receiver as much as possible. Not to mention the fact that Addai was helping out so his usual safety valve wasn't there.

The run game is bad. Joe is not the problem. Frankly I don't see how it matters who starts. The good news is they ran it when they had to on the last drive, even when the Niners knew they were probably going to run. That's the sign that you've worn them down to a degree.

Even with Edge, the Colts often struggled a bit in the first half running, but it pays off in the end.

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written by Guy., November 02, 2009

I am in agreement with Demond. The niners played great coverage. Those were coverage sacks on Manning. All of them. Well, probably all of them, didn't see many replays, as was noted above. But, when you see Manning look off everybody and then get sacked, you know that nobody was open. Can't blame the o-line here, for the most part. Nobody plays perfect and I thought they did a good job overall. DZ will fume at this, but Joe frustrates the hell out of me. Maybe this game was just good defense, but I am calling him "Loss of Down Joe" on almost every play. Brown has incredible vision, and Joe doesn't. It's that simple. When there is any running room at all, Joe gets 5-7 yards and Brown gets 10+. Addai has been one of our few weaknesses this year. Just my opinion. No need to write a big rebuttle, DZ. It's just what I am seeing with my eyes. And I have watched just as many football games as anybody. Not saying we need to get rid of him, I just think he is average at best. Now, blitz pickup is another thing, I'm talking strictly running skills here.

Demond nailed it.
written by Cass, November 02, 2009

I was at that game, and it looked like the 49ers had 15 men on the field on defense. They doubled and tripled Wayne all day, and with Garcon and Baskett sucking, Peyton had nowhere to go with the ball. The pass protection was good early in the game, and then, out of nowhere, they got 3 sacks.

The 49ers played extraordinarily well on defense. I can't fault Peyton for that, even though my brother kept annoying me by saying throughout the game that something was wrong with Peyton. The deep balls struck me as Peyton playing it safe, not as just overthrowing the receivers. To get anything all day, Peyton had to force the intermediate throws through some really tight windows.

It was a great game. Sloppy no doubt, but a great game nonetheless.

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written by teecee, November 02, 2009

Here's a novel idea for the Colts. How about investing in an ACTUAL fullback?

There's a veritable multitude of excellent blocking fullbacks that graduate college every year and never even get a SNIFF of the NFL.

Go get the best one of these guys you can find, sign him for the minimum and watch him blast open running lanes between the tackles.

He won't lack for motivation, that's for sure. Let's see....$310,000 per year (NFL minimum pay) or $40,000 per year (entry level BS degree pay).

If he isn't good enough, kick him to the curb and go get another one.

come from behind win
written by sb, November 02, 2009

A stat is a stat. 18 gets credit for leading the Colts to a come from behind win in the 4th Q. Shrug, but whatever. If such stats float someones' boat, add one more.

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written by DemondSanders, November 02, 2009

I am all for Don Brown starting. Why not try it? something has to change. But I don't think it will make a bit of difference.

...What to call
written by Doug England, November 02, 2009

Any opinions on if the Colts should run more draw plays or not? I know that Peyton is the least blitzed QB, and usually screens and draws work best against a defense that is overly aggressive... but against that gimmicky stuff the 49ers were doing yesterday... With all those guys dropping back in coverage, I'm wondering what would have happened on one of those third and four or fives, if the Colts just lined up and ran it straight at them.

which?
written by sb, November 02, 2009

Doug,

Which are you suggesting -- the draw or running straight at them?

Clearly, the 49ers had no respect for the Colt run blocking. They not only whipped Indy upfront, but by their alignment at times, they taunted the Colts. [See e.g. Steelers and Joey Porter calling the Colt O-line soft (strange how pundits thought he meant 18 and 8 smilies/cool.gif

when the Steelers played with only 2 DL, 3 LBs and 6 DBs for long stretches.]

Unfortunately, a FB is not the answer for the Colts. Adding a FB merely allows the defense to add a LB in the box. Easier for Indy to spread a 3d WR, force the defense to replace the LB with a DB and "block" him by alignment. Especially because a FB in the backfield makes it easier for the defense to disguise blitzes and coverages. Adding a FB would tend to reduce the biggest advantage the Colts possess -- 18's pre-snap read.

When the Colt O-line was really, really bad a few years ago, Peyton used Edge and the draw very effectively. Sometimes the only way he could buy enough time was to use play action off the draw fake. I think that would have been very effective yesterday. The Colt offense at its best used the stretch and the draw for the running game and used a whole lot of play action passing off both.

I wish someone would ask Polian why the Colts have gotten away from that emphasis. [Wonder if 18's knee changed things last year and it's just a matter of getting out of the habit?]

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written by Monkey Business, November 02, 2009

I'll admit that I haven't watched a lot of defensive game tape, but I'm pretty sure than it wouldn't have mattered who was behind center. I mean, the Niners had everyone standing up on certain plays. I can't fault Peyton for not knowing which of the 11 guys on the field are going to bring pressure.

The run game doesn't bother me. The Niners have a great run D. Addai isn't AP, but he's still better than most of the backs in the league.

This, From Peter King Today.... interesting....
written by Bob M, November 02, 2009

One other little clue about Indy's four three-and-outs against the Niners -- NBC compatriot Tony Dungy said he was fairly sure the 49ers offensive line coach, Chris Foerster, a Colts assistant in 2002 and 2003, shared a few clues about Peyton Manning's play-calls and fake-play-calls at the line during the San Fran practice week leading up to the game.

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c...z0ViuqgmPD
Get a free NFL Team Jacket and Tee with SI Subscription

Attila
written by Bob M, November 02, 2009

OMG, thanks for noticing the game clock with 3 seconds. Usually it's about 1 or 2 and yes, he does tend to get predictable in that regard IMO. It seems that in his first few years he was MUCH more likely to change things up in terms of snap count (probably had less audible autonomy back then). I haven't seen a hard count to draw the D off in a while and the last time he quick-snapped to catch them off guard he threw an INT (a month ago?).

Yes, for years I have wished that sometimes they'd just go up there and NOT audible (which is expected) and NOT run it down to 2 seconds, etc. Just run a little standard NFL vanilla to throw the D off-balance.

CBS summary
written by m@, November 02, 2009

As Shannon "My Tongue is Too Big for My Mouth" Sharpe said yesterday: "mfff dfff abbbal lubba woof begegegeg hoo!". Loose translation was that championship caliber teams find ways to win these kinds of games.

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written by DZ, November 02, 2009

Wow...lots of points to cover.

Re: Brown v Addai. Change it up. Won't make a bit of difference. Against that alignment yesterday, there is no reason for a back to ever get hit in the backfield. Any competant line should be able to push back standing defenders. Addai blocked savagely yesterday. Don't underestimate that. I think Brown would have helped yesterday for sure, but I don't see anything in Addai's style to suggest he's the problem. That line can't run block.

Re: play clock. It is not an issue. Manning quick counted plenty of times yesterday. The problem is that they don't show the clock unless he's letting it run down. Watch the tape of the 3rd quarter and you'll see lots of fast counts. That's why the 49ers faked so many injuries. They don't show the play clock when the ball is snapped at 25, just when it goes under 5. That's why it seems like he's always letting it run down. He's not.

RE: coverage sacks. At least one was Pollack getting blown up. I'll have to go back and rewatch it.

The big issue in this game was 4 field goals. Tomorrow I'll do a write up of the four drives that ended in FGs to see where the problem was. Indy got yards, they just didn't finish drives.

Good Point
written by Chip Bennett, November 02, 2009

The big issue in this game was 4 field goals. Tomorrow I'll do a write up of the four drives that ended in FGs to see where the problem was. Indy got yards, they just didn't finish drives.

Thanks for pointing this out, DZ. I was having that same thought this morning walking into work.

Manning and the offense didn't "struggle" against the Niners' defense. Manning threw for almost 350 yards, and they had over 400 total yards of offense.

They just killed too many drives and had to settle for FGs instead of converting TDs. If they turn one or two of those into their usual TDs, we're looking at a 23-14 or 27-14 game - which, the way the Colts (overall) controlled this game, is what it felt like the score *should* have been.

Even their third-down conversion (42%), while low for their standards, wasn't horrible.

Addai was a respectable 20 for 62 (3 ypc) against the #2 run defense (and has been pointed out, his blitz pickups in pass protection were *sick*).

Anybody remember a certain 15-6 playoff win in Baltimore? This team proved that it has the character to win that same kind of game - as they did yesterday.

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written by DemondSanders, November 02, 2009

But this time Stover was kicking for the winning team...

Pollak
written by BDiddy, November 02, 2009

Got lit up twice on his sacks. Especially the second, a bull-rush by #90 (if I remember correctly) knocked him straight back onto his butt, and allowed him to walk into the backfield. Granted, that looked like one on one between the two, with no help from Saturday, and Diem out on his own island at right tackle.

While we were all worried about Charlie Johnson preseason, Peyton has always had more trouble with a line that allows up the middle pressure, like Pollak was allowing yesterday. Johnson tends to block the player wide, allowing Peyton to step up into the pocket, meaning if there is ANY pressure from the interior Peyton has nowhere to go.

In my opinion, you just have to start playing DeVan. Remember that quote from the Super Bowl, where Manning didn't notice Johnson was in the game? It's like that with DeVan, but extremely unlike that with Pollak.

Great Shannon Sharpe Impression
written by Bob M, November 02, 2009

LOL

DZ, thanks for pointing that play clock issue--you're right, they only show when it ticks down to maybe 5-8 seconds (and I don't get to see them in person unless they come to Seattle). In fact, I often yell at the TV "Where's the play clock!" Didn't occur to me that when I don't see it is when he calls for the ball above that.

Also, I only "saw" about a quarter on-line before family obligations took precedence. I might have noticed what you pointed out, but maybe not.

Matt Stover
written by Evan S., November 02, 2009

Why not add Matt Stover under your "Reasons to Smile"? I know that kicking FG's isn't the best thing ever, but this 20-year veteran put through 4 FG's that basically won the game for us. Give the guy some credit!

2005 Peyton
written by JBD, November 02, 2009

There were several things I noted while at the game:
1). I thought the play selection was awful yesterday. It sure seemed as though Peyton was dialing up the long ball on first down too much. I don't know the stats, but it kinda reminded me of the 2005 playoff game against the Steelers. 2nd and long there was a wide run called that generated 2 yards (maybe). Now it's third and long. How many of our third downs were 7+ yards.
2). Why do we insist on running wide every play? It seems we've had success running the quick trap. With there defensive stance, we should have been able to run dives for three yards at least.
3). Numbers 90 and 92 were in our backfield virtually every play. It's time to invest some picks on big quality road graders.
4). I really like Garçon. I know his faults. He runs harder than Addai and is the most physical receiver we have ever had. When Gonzo comes back I hope he returns kick and punts.
5). There has to be someone on the roster better than Jaimie Silva to return punts.
6). This is the best defense we have ever had. Even without 3/4's of our secondary.
7). Bullitt should start over Bethea.
smilies/cool.gif

. Hayden is trying to hurt boys.

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written by Kevin A, November 02, 2009

A little to 2008ish for my liking... I was thinking the same exact thing. It felt like the 9ers were daring Peyton to throw deep and he could not connect. Sort of like the Bears opening game when they didn't think that he could beat them over the top and it turned out that he couldn't... The one thing different (and reason to smile) is that the 4 minute offense finally worked for the 1st time in 2 years. Last year, they had 6 chances to end the game on a knee and had to punt it away when they couldn't convert. In the regular season, they were able to hold on (PGH, NE, Jax2, SD1 (before the FG to tie), Cleveland) - plus Jax to open the season. In the playoff game, they couldn't convert 3rd and 2 to salt it away and folks acted surprised. The fact that they were able to hold the ball for the final 6 minutes and not give it back is another thing that gives me hope for this year.

Someone mentioned the 2006 Baltimore game - that was exactly what I was thinking on the final drive - right down to Dallas making the tough 3rd down catch to extend the drive. By the way, I think that the Clark 3rd down catch on a 5 wide empty backfield was the play that was supposed to happen on 3rd & 2 against SD in the playoffs.

JBD:
written by Willy Duer, November 02, 2009

Bullitt and Bethea play different positions. Otherwise, might've already done that... even though Antoine is a damn fine player too. We're 3 deep at safety with pro bowl caliber players. That's pretty awesome.

I think that if Chad Simpson hadn't been the #2 back he would've done the punt returns. Same with Garcon being a starting WR right now. They try to avoid having an O/D starter out there taking the kicks for some reason. I don't know if I can remember a returner ever getting hurt in my lifetime, but it definitely seems like a risk not worth taking.

I agree on some play selection. I thought Peyton was taking the deep chances because guys were open, so I was OK with it. But they abandoned the run for a while and kept running play action, which I thought was a bit weird. After a while without runs, it seems like a draw here and there could've worked. Their D line played very well but not even trying for a while seemed like a huge lack of confidence in the interior line. I have no confidence in Pollak either, but I think the other guys could open a hole just left of center for a draw or something. Maybe something else was going on though. I know that in 2 video board replays I do remember noting that Saturday didn't seem himself. Not exactly much of a sample size though, of course.

FG at end of half was the right call
written by Scott P, November 05, 2009

Why kick the FG with :06 left in the half? Because too many things could have gone wrong. The Niners are smart & play great D. They would have put 5 defenders in the endzone knowing that Manning would have to throw into the EZ. A short pass & run might let the the clock run out. Same with a sack.

Caldwell did the smart thing. Instead of being risky & desperate, he took the easy 3 points which gave Indy some momentum going into the half. Don't forget that the Colts got the ball to start the 3rd Qtr too.

Sure, it would have been great to steal back that TD to make it 14-13 going into the half. But a good coach must consider the downside too-- if they ran another play & threw an INT or ran out of time for a FG, then the Niners would have been sky-high heading into the locker room up 14-6. In the first half, you never take points off the board.

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written by DZ, November 05, 2009

I disagree. What could happen? Indy has a time out. 6 seconds is a ton of time to run a play. With a less experienced QB maybe you just kick, but if nothing else you have time to run the fade to Wayne or Collie in the corner. Even if you take a sack (like Pollack gave up in the second half), you have the time out to stop the clock.

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written by Scott P, November 05, 2009

What could happen???
1) An INT (because SF wouldn't have to cover any short passes)
2) The clock runs out & San Fran goes to half with ALL of the momentum.

Check out the final drive.
Pass to Collie - 6 seconds
Pass to Clark - 6 seconds
Pass to Collie - 8 seconds

I was surprised that the clock went from :14 to :06 on that final play. Maybe the clock operator had a slow trigger finger when stopping the clock.

If they had :08 or more, I'd say definitely take a shot at the endzone. But with just :06 left, you're putting alot of faith in the clock operator to stop it quickly. I'd rather take the sure 3 points instead of risking an INT or a 0:00.

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written by DZ, November 05, 2009

The INT risk is negligible if you call a safe pattern, plus you have Manning. You sort of have to trust him not to throw a pick.

The time thing isn't a big risk either. The Collie play was a 16 yard play where the guy was tackled in bounds (it takes a couple of seconds to get the timeout). The Colts were on the 13 running a pass play for the endzone. Against Miami, for example, it took 6 seconds to run a 20 yard out route to Clark. 5 is enough for a pass to the end zone from the 13.

I understand your point, I just think it was a little too conservative for me.