Bill Polian: Real Man of Genius

I'm on record as saying I believe the salary cap system is leaving and not coming back. Like everyone else, I pray I'm wrong. The salary cap has provided the Colts with a massive competitive advantage. Because Polian drafts so well, Indy is constantly stocked with cheap, talented players. This allows the Colts to pay their stars big money, while keeping the team rolling. What's truly stunning when examining the contracts of the Colts biggest stars is how well they are constructed.

First, note how Polian has organized the salaries. On a team you want your best players making the most money. It enforces the idea of merit in the locker room. When was the last time Indy had a player (not a new pick) hold out in camp? I don't think it has happened on Polian's watch. The best players make the most money, and that keeps guys in line. Here's Indy's top 10 cap numbers:

Manning

Freeney

Wayne

Mathis

Clark

Hayden

Sanders

Diem

Brock

Saturday

All vets. All starters. Other than Brock and Diem at #8 and 9, all elite players. Polian can pay big money to those guys because right now he's paying these 10 players a hair over $5 million TOTAL:

Pollack

C Johnson

Bethea

Session

Hagler

Powers

Bullitt

Muir

A Johnson

E Foster

$5 million is the cap figure this year of Raheem Brock, #9 on the first list. Not everyone on that second list is a great player, though Bethea, Session, Bullitt, and CJ have proved they can play big time football. Everyone on the second list is playing significant snaps for the team and making a contribution, however.

It's interesting as well to see where Indy doesn't spend money. Combined, Addai and Brown have a lower cap number than Gary Brackett (11th on the list). Since running backs are largely fungible in the NFL, it doesn't make sense to pay them. Brackett plays middle linebacker, so he got paid whereas all the other LBs on the roster make a combined $2.5 million (less than Brackett's $3 million).

As we look forward, it's amazing to see how sound this team's future is. Let's assume that cooler heads prevail and there is a new CBA, and the cap stays. The Colts aren't headed for cap hell anytime soon. Cap hell hits when you have given big bonuses to players who can't play and have to be cut. Your cap space gets eaten up by 'dead' money (bonus money that you expected to credit in the future, but now have to account for in the present).

The two biggest obstacles to cap health Indy had were the contracts of 18 and 88. They've already survived cutting Harrison, and that money will be off the books next year. As for Manning's then record deal, this is the year where it was supposed to sink the ship. His cap number is a league high $20 million. So what? First, if the best player in the game has the highest cap number, you can live with it. Secondly, the team is obviously not hurting at any position. Manning's number begins to recede over the next couple of years, so if he didn't bust the Colts' bank this year, he never will.

Teams get in trouble when they outlay big money to aging vets and then have to cut them. Will that happen to Indy? Nope, Polian has you covered.

The 'worst' contract: Dwight Freeney. His cap number jumps steadily from 11 mil this year to 13.6 to 16 to 19 million in four years. This deal will probably have to be reworked at some point, but considering that Freeney is the second most important Colt and a bona fide superstar, you can live with a huge number from him. When your 'worst' contract goes to an elite special corner stone player, you can't complain.

The second 'worst contract: Bob Sanders. You can argue Bob's value verses his injuries all day long, but Polian got him signed to a deal that is reasonable through 2010. In 2011, his salary spikes to $5 mil a season. So let's envision a worst case scenario: Sanders never stays healthy and is no longer elite next year. Indy has to cut him after 2010. The hit? Only somewhere around $4.6 million (potentially split over two years). Considering that Indy absorbed $6 million from Harrison with no trouble, Polian can get out from Bob's contract with little worry.

Those are the "bad" deals. Check out the great ones:

Reggie Wayne: 6.9 mil this year, 8.2 mil, 6.1 mil. Any team in the league would take that deal in a heartbeat.

Dallas Clark: 6.8, 7.8, 7.1, 8.0, 8.8. He's arguably the best tight end in football, and certainly an indispensable part of the offense. His cost is high for a tight end, but low for an impact player.

Jeff Saturday: Ah, the angst over signing an old center. His numbers? 4.0, 4.4, 4.8. Beautiful. Even if he was cut after this season (obviously not going to happen), it would only cost Indy $5 million to be done with him.

Outside of Manning and Freeney, Indy doesn't have another $9 million player until Kelvin Hayden in 2011.

What about impending free agents? Couldn't the Colts suddenly lose some of these good, cheap players? Well, if the CBA doesn't get redone soon, the only significant UFA the Colts will have is Gary Brackett. Marlin Jackson, Charlie Johnson, Tim Jennings and Bethea are all slated to be UFAs, but will be restricted FAs if no deal is done. You'd have to think that CJ and Bethea would get deals, but with all the young corners Indy has MJax and Jennings would likely be gone.

Bill Polian is more than just a great drafter. He's more than the guy who called the Manning/Leaf deal correctly. He's a true Hall of Fame architect. Don't take my word for it, just read what Vic Ketchman said Monday:

My philosophy has always been to build your team into a consistent playoff contender, and then wait for the one year when you get hot at the right time and everything falls in your favor. The Colts are the perfect example of that. My expectation for next season will likely be for the Jaguars to be a playoff contender. That’s as far as I can look ahead at this point.

Smart guy, that Vic.

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Confession ...
written by JAT, October 28, 2009

Very nice, DZ. I have to confess, I kinda like Vic, I usually read him every day, but he made the classic mistake of overreacting to one data point. There were about 5 legitimate belly laughs in that article.

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written by Dave_H, October 28, 2009

Considering that old article and some of the stuff he has said about the Colts, Peyton etc. I chalked him up as a bitter Jacksonville homer or a retard. Take your pick.
I rarely read his stuff, so maybe he has a better grasp of reality than I gave him credit for.
That old article is still a laugher though.

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written by LukeM, October 28, 2009

How do you calculate how much it costs to cut a player?

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written by DZ, October 28, 2009

The core rule is that all the money already paid has to be accounted for. That means the various bonuses. You can divide bonus money over the life of a contract. So if I sign Johnny Football to a 12 million bonus for 4 years, I count 3 million every year he plays PLUS his salary.

But let's say Johnny gets hurt in year one and he's done. I already accounted for 3 million of his bonus, but I paid him 9 million more. Under the old rules, depending on the date I cut him, I could basically count half that money now and half the next year. So he counts 4.5 million each of the next two seasons, but I don't have to pay him whatever the salary figure was.

That's how cutting a player can save you REAL money and cost you cap money. Say Johnny's salary was 1 million each year. I saved the REAL 1 million by cutting, but his cap number jumped from 4 million (salary + amortized bonus) to 4.5 million because I had to account for his bonus over two years instead of three.

Teams often have to decide if it's worth real money to save cap money (that's why the Colts offered 88 a deal last year...they could have saved cap money by keeping him at a modest salary).

Now, because the CBA is jacked, the rules are totally out the window. My figures were based on the old rules coming back...that may or may not happen.

It's actually a bit more complicated (believe it or not) than I made it sound, but that's the simplified version of it.

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written by LukeM, October 28, 2009

Thanks. So if we have any room under the cap each year we should restructure and fill it up with bonus money that has already paid so we can get it behind us in terms of our cap accounting. Is that possible?

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written by DemondSanders, October 28, 2009

The NFL has its foot on the the necks of the NBA and MLB. The other leagues only hope is the NFL dumping its salary cap.

Demond-
written by Cass, October 28, 2009

That would be a sad day for us all. I'm still holding out hope that the week before the deadline, the owners and players/union realize what they're doing and get something done quickly. It would work the same way that an impending deadline works for a procrastinator (like me). No motivation until you are at that moment where you have to do it now or not at all, and then you get it done at the last moment.

That's what I'm hoping/holding out for; all that talking and posturing they are doing now to mean nothing when they suddenly have that deadline in front of them.

Otherwise, it would be a very sad day for us.

@ Cass
written by JAT, October 28, 2009

I hope so too, but I think the fundamental problem this time is that there are a significant few owners that would rather not have a cap - the Jerry Joneses/Dan Snyder's of the league - because with the financial resources they have, they think the cap holds them back. And they probably have the power to scuttle any potential deal. I hold out hope that even without a cap, the intelligently run teams in the league (like the Colts) could still be successful.

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written by teecee, October 28, 2009

I checked the current CBA and there is absolutely no provision for paying a player in human brains and/or other body parts. Polian is certainly smart for drafting the undead to save cap room.

Not having a salary cap would mean that the NFL would turn into major league baseball. 4 teams that spend BILLIONS and 28 teams that don't have a chance. A juicy brain would have a better chance of being ignored by "you know who" that a small or mid market team of being successful.

They'd better wise up and get something in place before it's too late.

God Bless You...
written by Doug England, October 28, 2009

I needed that luagh. I read Vic every day, and I can just imagine him writing that three years ago. (He loves to call himself an unbiased journalist, but he can't help but hate the Colts and Peyton, and that article just reeks of "wishful" thinking on his part.)

Very nicely done, DZ
written by Bob M, October 28, 2009

and you too, Vic....

There are tons of strings attached to no cap though
written by dmstorm22, October 28, 2009

1.) teams get a second franchise tag
2.) UFA comes only after 6 years not 4 (big, big loss to players)
3.) Good teams can only sign a UFA after they lose one.

Honestly, it will not be any easier for Jerry Jones and Snyder to win then than it is for them now.

The big problem is that there is no salary floor, and I also think revenue sharing goes away (not sure about that one), so teams like the Jaguars can turn into the Marlins. However, the Cowboys can't really turn into the Yankees.

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written by shake n bake, October 28, 2009

If the cap goes I expect Marlin Jackson (and maybe even Jennings) back because putting the lowest tenders on them would mean a team would have to give up a second rounder for either of them. It'd cost just over a million for Jennings, and a ten percent raise for Jackson (just under 2mil).

Calling a spade a spade
written by AnHero, October 28, 2009

I have to say, Freeney did hold out last year or the year before, but he did it the right way, with class.
He showed up to camp, just didn't practice. Some might not call it a hold out, but that is what it was.

Freeney even went on record as saying that he was there to support the team, and had no plans of sitting out all of camp.

Don't believe the hype.
written by coltsfanawalt, October 29, 2009

It took me five weeks to get that ripped. I'm seeking a partial refund.

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written by DZ, October 29, 2009

You have the facts wrong on Freeney:

After the 2006 season, his contract was up. The Colts tagged him as the franchise player. He signed the tender.

The tender is NOT a contract. He did attend the offseason MINI-CAMP because he was not under contract and was NOT required to. He voluntarily showed up to support the team as a sign of good faith to show that he was serious about doing a long term deal. He could not have practiced if he wanted to.

Just before the cut off date, the Colts signed him to his current contract. He reported to camp on time.

He did not hold out. Missing mini-camp because you are under the franchise tag without a contract is very different from missing training camp with a contract. That's the definition of holding out.