Buy Blue Blood

AccuScore Season Forecast

Daily Links RSS

RSS for the Daily Links
Catching up
Written by Nate Dunlevy   
Wednesday, 07 October 2009 06:53

Here the statistical loose ends I've been pondering for the last couple of days:

1.  Is there anyone out there who still blames Addai for the run game? Through four weeks, you couldn't get two backs more similar than Addai and Brown:

Carries Yards YPC TD Receptions Yards TD DVOA Success Fumbles
ADDAI 48 183 3.8 2 16 100 1 0% 50% 1
BROWN 38 132 3.5 2 5 125 0 -7.50% 50% 1

Addai has been a little better than Brown, but the difference is negligible.  Brown had the one long catch and run against Arizona, but it was such a blown coverage, it's hard to argue that Addai wouldn't have done the same thing had he been in the game.

2.  The line has been markedly better according to FO. The pass pro is 2nd in the league (yawn), but the run blocking is up to 12th.  The Colts are 13th in power running, but still getting stuffed 24% of the time (27th in the league).  The Colts are more effective up the middle than running around either end.  The stretch play hasn't been working well in terms of generating yards, but the play action has been devastating.

3.  The Colts still aren't getting off the field on third down. They are 31st in the league in third down defense.  I've been scrambling to find out if they average yards to go on third down has increased over last year, but I can't find that stat anywhere.  My perception is that the Colts are giving up more third and mediums/third and longs than last year.  I attribute that directly to injuries to the secondary.  Sanders, Hayden, and Brackett should help that third down conversion rate.  Jennings, Bullitt, and Keiaho have played solid in their absence, but I would expect this team to start getting off the field more when they add three elite coverage players.

4.  A note on Tom Brady: This is who is he is folks.  More to the point, this is who he's always been.  I marvel that people act like there is something wrong with him.  He's not the guy who played out of his mind against weak teams for 10 weeks in 2007.  He's this guy.  His accuracy?  Totally normal for him.  He's completing 62.1% of his passes, that's the same or better than he did during the 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006 seasons.  His YPA is a smidge down (6.5), but considering that apart from 2007, his career YPA is only 7.0, it's not that out of line. His TD and INT % are a little down, but it's early.  His DVOA numbers are about where they were in 2005, and much better than 2003 or earlier.  The Pats are 3-1.  Brady isn't putting up numbers.  Isn't that who he always was?  2007 was an utter mirage. It was never realistic to expect him to throw for 4500 yards and 36 TDs.  He's not that guy.

Tom Brady is back.  Or doesn't anyone remember?

5.  The Colts schedule looks very manageable. Right, right, I know all games are tough in the NFL, but let's face it, some games are tougher than others.  Indy has 6 road games left.  The teams they play are a combined 8-15, with only Baltimore having a winning record.  They play two winless teams on the road.  The home slate?  A little tougher: 15-9.

6.  The AFC South has been a trainwreck. Apart from the Colts, the division has a total of ONE win against other divisions (Houston beat mighty Oakland).  The other three teams are 1-4 against non-South teams.

7.  Pierre Garcon has been great. He also has an astounding 6 penalties (true count) in 4 games.  He has at least one penalty in every game this year.  He still has a ways to go.  If he were an offensive line man, everyone would be crucifying him.  I love that both he and Collie have improved their catch rate though, and both have good DVOA numbers.  That's a big improvement.

Finally, I don't understand the Bob Sanders angst out there in certain quarters. 2006 was not that long ago.  I'd think people would chill out and realize that as long as he's back in January, we can make due in the short run.  Sanders is not a terribly expensive player.  His absence isn't hurting the team (though his presence will help).  I'm not sure why everyone gets all whiny about him missing practice time and games early in the season.

 

Comments (8)Add Comment
feedSubscribe to this comment's feed
...starting a Gijon and a Pierre
written by Doug England, October 07, 2009
Have you noticed how much Tight End Robinson has been playing? I can't remember him getting thrown to since the Jags game. If he is just staying in and doing the dirty work of pass protection, God bless him. But I haven't even noticed him blocking.
...
written by DemondSanders, October 07, 2009
1. Garcon's penalties have reached a ridiculous level. I'll forgive him a holding penalty though, because the downfield blocking has been so solid. Can't complain when a WR gets grabby.

2. The AFC South worries me way more than the rest of the Colts schedule. Those teams are so unpredictable. The two Houston games will be tough. I'd take a 3-2 finish against the South (4-2 overall).

3. Excellent point about Brady. I wouldn't celebrate yet, but at this point several of the 18 bold visions for 2009 are looking good. Including the one about Tommy Boy.
Brady's greatness
written by sb, October 07, 2009
For Brady fans (see e.g. Boston area sports media), it was never about the numbers. I remember a Tom Curran piece in the ProJo 4 or 5 years ago which laid out the case for Brady being so much better than Favre or Manning. Brady's greatness (the best ever?) had nothing to do with numbers. 4 and 18 were just about stats. Tom was the greatest because of his dreamy qualities (stuff like guts, determination, leadership, his clutchness). It was inconceivable that any QB could possibly measure up to the greatness that is Brady.

Boston journalists are incredible homers (think Red Sox, Celtics) and everything Boston is the best that ever was or could be. So the evaluations of Brady don't start with a look at his play and proceed to build a case. They start with the certain knowledge that Brady must be the best ever and then they assign to him attributes that the best QB would surely be expected to have. So they assert that Brady is a very accurate passer -- must be true because he's the best QB ever. Actually watching him play isn't necessary. After all, he single-handedly won 3 Super Bowls. Brady is the best at play action -- must be true, he's the best QB ever. Brady has always been fantastic at reading defenses and calling audibles -- (doesn't matter that Belichick was once quoted several years into Brady's career saying that they were slowly beginning to give him more freedom to change plays) if he's the best ever, it necessarily follows that he was always great reading and audibling.

They don't need no stinkin' evidence. They already "know".
Lack of Bob
written by Nickaveli, October 07, 2009
I would never be in the faction of the ignorant people that want them to cut Bob Sanders, I still wear his jersey proudly every Sunday. I do however just wish we were given some real info on when he may come back. If they told me coming into the season we wouldn't have him until weak 7, I would be fine with that, but instead it's a wait and see approach for something that feels like it will never happen. If he doesn't play this week, then we obviously should have left him on the PUP until week 7, as we have the by coming up in week 6. Maybe they were just hoping for the best, but we could have used the roster spot. It just seems like head games sometimes.
Braylon Edwards to Jets
written by Bob M, October 07, 2009
Good news or bad news? Our top AFC competition this year appears to be NYJ, NE, Bal, Den, SD. Pitt is a talented dark horse digging out of a hole. I suspect Edwards to the Jets will weaken them this year, and maybe for a few years to come. It might hamper rookie QB development if he's unreliable and lazy, and they lose future draft picks as well as current productive players. I like it!

I may be nuts, but looking around, there is not one AFC team that really worries me. Bal did until the Pats handled Flacco. We should be able to do the same. SD IS the Phil Rivers show on offense, and his offensive cast is pretty talented, but the D is in disarray. Den is a bit of a mystery--I assume they're somewhat of a mirage, but that D point total is pretty impressive. (Of course, IIRC, a few years ago we played them in Week 5 or 6 at a time when they had allowed the fewest points in the league. Then Manning hung about 35 on them, about what they allowed to all opponents up to that point. Cue their downfall.) Pats... we all know and love them, so no point in elaborating. Will the return of Troy spark Pitt's resurgence? Or did his absense just illustrate their flaws?
I still fear Pittsburgh more than the other teams
written by dmstorm22, October 07, 2009
what helps is that, if we meet in the playoffs, the game will most likely be in Indy. I feel like the gave away the Chicago and Cincy games, and with Troy, they would have won those. Roethlisberger is playing great. Now San Diego might just not be any good, but Pittsburgh cruhed them in that game. It was really 28-7 before garbage time TD's started. They scare me more than the rest. But honestly, I do not feel that any team can beat us more often than not.
...
written by Monkey Business, October 07, 2009
On a neutral indoor field with no fans, I'd pick the Colts against all of those teams.

Away, in inclement weather, in the playoffs, I'd question our ability to beat the Jets, Pats, or Ravens.

Home, I'm not scared of any of them, but I'd put our odds at no better than 60:40.
Agreed
written by Bob M, October 07, 2009
The AFC is a concern, but not a worry for me. Plus, anybody is capable of righting their ship and peaking at the right time. The NFC, I don't really know. Giants have the recipe (Good D, good run game, capable QB who can light it up if need be, plus experience on a big stage.) Saints and Vikes might as well.

I know these guys need time to recover and game-plan, but Jeez, I wish they'd get the 16 game season over in about a month! I just can't wait a whole week.

Write comment

busy
< Prev   Next >
 

About Bloguin

Bloguin is the revolutionary blog network specifically focused on helping bloggers get the most out of their websites. We're currently working on building a large network of online communities and hope to expand our blogging coverage to include a wide range of topics.

Advertisers

The Bloguin Network allows advertisers to promote their products and services to our ever-growing number of visitors. We offer both site-specific ad placements as well as the ability to run a network-wide campaign. If you're interested in working with Bloguin to meet your advertising needs, please contact us.

Bloggers Wanted

The Bloguin Network is always looking to expand. We're specifically looking for blogs in the sports, entertainment, and video games field, but are open to adding any type of quality site.. If you're a blogger and interested in joining our network, please fill out our application form.

The Bloguin Login

The Bloguin Login gives you full access to everything our network has to offer. Your name and password will work for each and every one of our sites. Signing up is simple, and will allow you to post in all our forums, create member blogs, and access other cool features! What are you waiting for? Create an Account!