Up the River

I'm stranded in a small city in the interior of Argentina, typing in a dark hotel room as my wife and kids desperately try to sleep. Meanwhile my car is nesting happily in a mechanic's shop as I wonder how and when I'll ever get home.

Today, as I sat in the blazing sun waiting for the tow truck to haul my recently troubled vehicle back to civilization, I said a prayer, and fired up my Ipod to listen to my mp3 recording of the 2006 AFC Championship game. When things look bleak (and they are bleak, friends), it pays to remember happier times.

So, instead of getting the sleep I need, I want to take a few minutes to respond to some thoughts in the comments and my emails and do a recap of a MUCH happier time...Sunday night. As always, I caution you that I haven't watched the tape, nor am I within a 9 hour drive of the tape. I have barely slept or eaten in a couple of days. I did actually manage to watch the game live, however, because this is a crazy tripped out world we live in. Mine just happens to be crazier than most.

Reasons to Smile:

Peyton Manning. Yawn.
Collie was brilliant for a second straight week. Tremendous game from him.
The defense was brilliant all night. Two turnovers by the Colts: zero first downs allowed was the defense's response.
Tim Jennings and Tony Ugoh's play in the second half. See the note below.

Reasons to Frown:

The Colts still aren't running the ball with any regularity. Neither back is getting it going. To be fair, Indy has played 3 of the top 5 run defenses in the NFL through 5 weeks, so it may just be a scheduling quirk. The bad news is that they play 3 more of the top 8 in the coming weeks, so it's not going to get better anytime soon. This is the one GLARING weakness for this team. We've all seen too many playoff runs aborted because of a criminal inability to move the ball on the ground. I'm not giving up hope that the run game will find itself, but there is a long way to go before I feel confident this team can put away a close game when it matters.
Tony Ugoh's and Tim Jennings's play in the first half. Jennings is what I said he was: a not bad weakest link. He makes plays, but largely because he gets more opportunities to make plays than most CBs. He is always the #1 target out there, and sometimes he makes a play. Other times, balls bounce off his head, go through his hands, and WRs break his ankles. Ugoh could not have played much worse for the first 25 minutes or so, but was nicely invisible in the second half. In the first half, it was stunning how bad he was. I know he is still battling various injuries, but wow, did it ever look like he had gone seriously backwards. In the end, he showed why he's still around. It's not too late for him (yet).
Jeff Fisher is a coach I always had respected. I'm not sure how I feel about him any more. His was a gutless, uninspired game plan. In the end, he shocked us all...by playing it straight and getting destroyed. Bad form, Jeff. Bad form.
Both roughing the passer calls were legit, but I HATE the first one. I hate the Brady rule. I know it keeps QBs healthy and what not, but I don't think it's fair to hamstring the defense that much. The second call was a text book late hit, and Fisher should not have been whining about it.

Best Call

Going for it on fourth and one early. It's almost always the right play. Caldwell has been forward thinking on this all year, and I for one appreciate it.

Worst Call

Can anyone explain to me taking a 2nd and 15 over a 3rd and 8? I guess I get the field position thing considering they were in long FG range, but it was a bad swap as the Titans threw for 11 yards, making it 3rd and 4. This is tied with the pointless early blitz of Brackett that lead to an easy completion to the TE. I'm quibbling, I know. It's hard to find fault when you win 31-9.

Reasons I'm Flyin'

The defense is for real. It's now 15th in the NFL against the run, and other than Miami's wildcat, it has been 'gash proof'. MJD had one big run verses a blitz in week one, but for the most part running against the Colts has been a no go.
It's easy to point out that Indy hasn't played anyone, but as FO noted a couple of years ago, blowing out bad teams is a better indicator of success than beating good teams. Indy has rolled three straight opponents. That's a GREAT sign. Regardless of what anyone thinks, it's actually a better indicator than Denver squeaking out close wins over teams with winning records. The haters won't like it, but facts are facts.
Two consecutive bye weeks is awesome. What? You mean I forgot about the Rams? No. I didn't.
The AFC South is OVER. Indy is playing for a bye. At this point, anything less than 13-3 and a first round bye has to be a major disappointment. Anything less than 14-2 and a #1 seed is a minor disappointment.
When this team gets Hayden and Sanders back...watch out. This defense is going to be incredible.

Reason's I'm Dyin'

Uh, hello? Did you read the first paragraph? You don't want to be me right now. Seriously.
Argentina needs a tie verses Uruguay to secure a World Cup berth. That's effed up.
I also misidentified the Jets QB the other day as Matt Sanchez. Cut me some slack. That internet connection was crazy slow, and I never got around to fixing it. Still, it was an inexcusable mistake. Normally, I just misspell stuff.

The Bottom Line

This team isn't quite 2007 good (yet). It still has to run the ball effectively, but it's close. This defense might be the best yet in Indy, and it hasn't even gotten it's secondary anywhere close to healthy. The big games are coming soon (NE, @Balt, Denver), but for now, the Colts can feel strong about where they are and where they are going. Ladies and Gentlemen: Your 2009 AFC South Champions...the Indianapolis Colts (well, more or less).

Bonus Trivia Question:

How many different Colts have had 100 yard games with Peyton Manning as their QB, and can you name them? (tip to Stan for the question)

Bonus Debate:

Would the Colts still win the AFC South if Peyton Manning didn't play another down the rest of the year?

Comments (35) Add Comment

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Sorry about your situation
written by Bob M, October 13, 2009

DZ, Sorry life is sucking right now. Could be worse: you could be a Raiders fan.

There, I just made you feel a whole lot better, right?

Let me fill you in on the Jets 31-27 win over NYJ: Both teams ran well, but the Jets, who allowed 3 TDs in the first 4 games, allowed 3 in the final quarter tonight and made Chad Henne look like, well, Peyton Manning. Henne is pretty good, BTW. The 'cat gave them fits, yes, but the passing game tore them apart. The Jets are officially not a major concern of ours. Despite Ryan succeeding on two fake punts (he's a risk taker) they could not pull it out. Good sign. Now NYJ and NEP both stand at 3-2 and MIA is 2-3. It's a race, folks, and not for HFA or a bye.

I know the stats support the STOMPS over the GUTS wins, but it just feels intuitively wrong to me. Colts stomped all over the NFCN in 2004 and fell far short.

I think Ugoh was replaced late by Federkeil--ankle injury? I wonder if his real problem is just that he's brittle and doesn't cope well with pain (or pain meds)? That's a major liability in this game, of course.

Broncos throwback unis.... scary. Chefs were pretty sweet (same uni more or less, but a red helmet with white TX map on it because they were the texans in 1960), and the Pats had extremely nice circa 1970 unis. I was expecting Sam Bam Cunningham to take a handoff. And the Colts unis...? The classics hardly ever change.

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written by C Biscuit, October 13, 2009

I'm optimistic that the run game will come around to be at least an effective diversion from the pass game. I have to say that at this point in his career I'm a bit disappointed in Addai. Don't get me wrong - he's a valuable and versatile player with no real weaknesses. But he's also not the gamebreaker Polian suggested he would be when drafted either. When comparing Addai to Edge I recall Polian saying something to the effect of "Edge takes a 5 yard play 5 yards while Joe can take a 5 yard play 20 yards". I'd say Joe takes a 5 yard play 5 yards as well. To my eye Brown is noticeably faster with more wiggle. I feel like Brown has been close to breaking off big plays a few times. I'd like to see Brown slowly assume the role of lead back much in the same way Addai assumed it from Rhodes.

Wow.
written by Cass, October 13, 2009

13-3 is a disappointment. I love that you are setting the bar so high for this team.

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written by DZ, October 13, 2009

@ Bob...I saw it. Miami looked incredible. Losing Pennington might actually help them.

@ C Biscutt... Brown has been basically the same as Addai running the ball. I don't think he has more 'wiggle'. Addai has been a beast catching the ball and blocking. I just don't think we have a good run blocking line. I don't think Brown is all that close to Addai in the other phases of the game, and they are too equal running the ball to make a judgement.

@Cass... Only a small one. Be honest, if the Colts had a 2 seed and lost three more games, wouldn't you feel like that was a bit of a weak end to a season that will start 6-0?

Glad you are safe at least
written by Westside Rob, October 13, 2009

When the blog went "silent" for such a long time after the game I was starting to worry. Glad you are save at least. I admire your guts to even be in the situation that you are in.

Pretty sure Bob is right that Ugoh did not play much if any of the 4th Quarter so him being invisible was a case of him not being on the field I'm afraid. He's officially washed up in my book. Doesn't mean he can't find redemption but I'm not in any way expecting it. CJ fortunately has been well above solid and should be back after the buy. We've definitely got to address OT next draft and maybe a solid backup from the FA market even.

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written by DZ, October 13, 2009

I didn't realize Ugoh was out so much of the fourth quarter. I was listening to the game in Spanish on a 10 inch TV, so it's hard to track the line too well. Eventually, i'll watch the tape and have a more informed idea of things.

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written by psvirsky, October 13, 2009

DZ, did you happen to see the Argentina game on Saturday? Crazy crazy finish. 2 goals in extra time, one by Peru to tie and then Argentina a couple minutes later to win (and get back into the 4th spot). And, as that's happening, Uruguay is tied with Ecuador in extra time. Just a couple minutes after Argentina wins their game, Uruguay gets a penalty kick on what ends up being the last play of the game and wins.

Going into that set of games, Ecuador was in the 4th spot (automatic WC berth), Argentina was a point behind (play-in for a WC berth) and Uruguay a point behind them (4 more years of waiting). To have both those games change outcomes at the last second was thrilling and really hurt Ecuador's chances (by the way, Ecuador was something like 15-1 at home up to that point). Wednesday's Uruguay v. Argentina game could be epic. Unfortunately, I'll be in a White Collar Criminal Law class following it on a gamecast of some sort. I just have to remember to politely excuse myself from class for hooting and hollering when we kick Argentina out of the 2010 WC.

Oh, and uh, GO COLTS!! Very gratifying to see them take it to the Titans.

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written by DZ, October 13, 2009

I saw it. It was agonizing and incredible.

Maradona is an idiot. Let's just leave it at that.

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written by DemondSanders, October 13, 2009

The only area where Brown might be ahead of Addai is pure strength. Addai doesn't often make yardage after initial contact, where Brown seems to have that potential. In all other areas I think Addai is ahead or equal to Brown. And, yes, Addai's value as receiver is immense.

It is the blocking. The Colts backs get hit in the backfield... a lot.

I'm not worried yet, but it definitely has to be the number one issue right now... as far as chinks in the armor. Talk to me after the Rams and Texans games...

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written by C Biscuit, October 13, 2009

First off, I stipulated that Addai is a valuable, versatile player. No one is arguing that. I think you overestimate his value as a receiver, however. If by beastly as a receiver you mean he doesn't drop the ball then you're correct. Has Brown shown he can't catch? Absolutely not, seems pretty smooth actually. Since you equate the RBs by their avg. carry let's do the same with receiving. Addai is averaging 6 yds/catch while Brown averages 20 yds/catch. Take away the blown coverage by Ariz and it's still 10 yds/catch. Brown impressively caught the wheel route against Miami, I believe. I believe Brown has big play capability that Kid Joe simply doesn't have. Addai's longest career run is 41 yds back in his rookie season. The next longest in his entire career is 23 yds. Brown already has a 23 yard run. Addai doesn't have 'wiggle'- he doesn't make anybody miss. Could that be why he has continuing nagging injuries?

Look, I like Addai as a player. To me he is a great athlete who gets put at RB because he's the fastest, best athlete on the team. He maybe could've made the NFL at receiver or on defense because he's a great athlete. I think by the end of the year Brown will show that he has a bigger upside than Addai - which was kind of the point of my original point - are you disappointed in the career arc of Addai considering what we thought we were getting? He's not really any better or worse than we saw 3 years ago.

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written by DemondSanders, October 13, 2009

I'm not disappointed in Addai yet. I'm very disappointed in the offensive line.

I don't think this is an argument worth having at this point in the year. Brown is producing at the same rate as Addai. Upside doesn't matter. If the line blocks better, they both will have much better numbers. The truth is we need both of them. Neither is going to be a 300 carry back any time soon.

As far as yards per reception... that's a sketchy comparison. Addai made some good catches on Sunday night for 4,5,6 yards. He got hit immediately, but a short gain is better than Peytong taking a sack or throwing a pick.

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written by DemondSanders, October 13, 2009

And by "very disappointed in the offensive line" I'm including 2008, obviously.

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written by C Biscuit, October 13, 2009

I think you might be making my point. Addai can't make them miss...

Listen, you can talk about 'sketchy' comparisons all you want but in the end stats do not lie. If they do then perhaps Brown's yds/carry is low because he was bleeding the clock at the end of the earlier blowouts. I don't recall but I'm troubled that you can't see that Brown has the more explosive style.

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written by DemondSanders, October 13, 2009

Look, you may be right about Brown, but until the line plays better it is impossible to know. Right now they look both look kind of crappy.

I think playing the Rams and Texans will tell us a lot more about the situation.

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written by Dave_H, October 13, 2009

It isn't an Addai or Brown scenario. This is a persistent problem that has been occuring for the equivalent of two full seasons. The last time the Colts put back to back 100 yard rushing games together was in the early half of the 2007 season. Over the past 31 games (including playoffs) the Colts have averaged 76.8 rushing yards per game. The line, the backs, the coaching staff, and heck, even the front office deserve some of the blame for letting this problem linger on this long.

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written by Monkey Business, October 13, 2009

Re: AFC South,

The Titans are 0-3 against the division, and are effectively eliminated from repeating as division champs.

The Jags are 2-1. The Texans are 1-1.

I'm thinking the Colts could have the division locked up by the end of November. Two wins against Houston would put us at 4-0, with an away game at Jax and home against Tenn, with only the Jax game being a "must win".

Dispatching the Pats, Ravens, Broncos, and Jets will most likely net us HFA and a first round bye.

I honestly don't see a game on the schedule that makes me go "That'll be tough." I mean, the Bills game used to worry me, but they can't do anything on offense, defense, or special teams. I'd expect Manning to sit most of that.

All in all, I'd say we have a better than clear path to 14-2 or better.

Overall records
written by Bob M, October 13, 2009

Monkey Biz, keep I mind the in-division records only matter if the overall records are tied, and I doubt that will be an issue. (Think 1999, with the Jags at 14-2 and Titans at 13-3. Jags won the division, even though those two losses were to Tennessee. So the Jags got to host the AFCCG loss to wildcard Tenn. Or 2002, with us and Tenn tied overall, but Tenn holding the tie-breaker (conf record IIRC) and therefore getting the nod.

Right now it looks realistically like 14-2/13-3 for Indy (as you say), 10-6 at best for Jax/Hou, and 8-8 at best for Tenn. 12 wins would be the Colts' worst case scenario (barring massive injuries). I agree that we could run the table, but will probably drop a couple--stuff happens.

Mathematically, they're all alive, but in practical terms, set the table and ring the dinner bell--it's done.

Anybody else having problems posting?
written by Bob M, October 13, 2009

I'd say half of my posts end up being bounced back, or hung up (it seems as if it takes 5-10 minutes to complete the post--if I cut it off and refresh, the darn thing is posted, but the computer things it's still working on it....) Then there's the fact that I need two screen names--sometimes it tells me my name is already registered--duh! to me! whatever....

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written by LukeM, October 13, 2009

I've had those problems too.

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written by DemondSanders, October 13, 2009

"Dispatching the Pats, Ravens, Broncos, and Jets will most likely net us HFA and a first round bye."

I think realistically you split those four games and split the home and away with Houston. That puts you at 13-3 and a certain bye, and probably the 1 seed. I don't see anyone else in the AFC, including Denver, winning 13 games this year.

Heck, the classic threats (Pitt,SD,NE) already have two losses. If Cincy and Denver are the stiffest competition it says something...

I still feel that we have not seen the last of Pittsburgh
written by dmstorm22, October 13, 2009

That team, when it gets Troy back, I think can win 13 games. I know that means only one more loss, but I feel like all they have to do is split against Baltimore and they can run the rest. I still feel that Denver is good enough to stay close in some of those upcoming games and lose. And they do have some really tough games. The only game I fear, fear for the Colts is the one at Houston. Houston still scares me on offense, and have played us really, really close the last two years.

Bonus Debate
written by Schultz950, October 13, 2009

"Would the Colts still win the AFC South without Peyton Manning playing another down?"

That's tough. They'd have to beat out the winless Titans, the everyone's-sexy-pick-that-falls-on-their-face-annually Texans, and a Jaguars team that just lost 500-0 to Seattle.

I have a hard time seeing any of those teams eclipse 7 wins.

A couple of things:
written by Cass, October 13, 2009

DZ- I wasn't being sarcastic about loving you setting the bar so high for this team. I completely agree that this team should be finishing 14-2, and I love that you're expecting this team to finish there. This team has the ability to do some great things.

Bob M- That problem with the system saying your name has been registered has happened to me before, but I discovered a trick to get around it. After it does that, delete and re-type your username in the name box that is directly above the website, title, and comment boxes. It works every time for me without fail.

Thanks Cass--ugh all "that extra work!"
written by Bob M, October 13, 2009

Okay, so maybe re-typing my name is not so onerous....

BTW, I haven't said this much lately, but I just lve Irsay.

Why Sorgi never plays?
written by Nacho from Buenos Aires, October 13, 2009

Hi, regards from Argentina. Thanks god the Colts are winning!!! (River Plate and Argentina Soccer Team are killing me!!)

OK, my question to experts: Why the hell Jim Sorgi (or even Curtis Painter!) is not on the field with your team wining 31-9 against the Tennessee Ghosts??? I now Peyton is like highlander, but wouldn´t it be nice to see what Sorgi can do in case of a disaster??
I really can´t undestand why Peyton never leaves the game...
(sorry for my english!)

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written by DemondSanders, October 13, 2009

The funny thing about the AFC South: It is tied with the AFC East with 9 total wins. That is fourth out of the eight divisions. It is an embarrassment, but amazingly there are actually three divisions that are worse (NFC West, NFC South, AFC West).

I still think Houston gets 9 or 10 wins. No hope for the Jags or Titans though.

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written by djcolts, October 13, 2009

Houston is not getting to 9 wins. They have 2 starting OL out for the season (http://www.chron.com/disp/stor...64525.html) , and they can't run the ball against anyone but the Raiders. And their D stinks.

Also, look at the schedules of the Jags and the Texans, especialy the next 4 weeks - (Houston - @Cincy, SF, @Bills, @Colts, Jags - Rams, BYE, @Titans, KC) the Jags will be the team that will be in 2nd when the Colts clinch the division - the schedules basically says so.

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written by Dave_H, October 13, 2009

Nacho, I agree that Peyton should be pulled once the game is out of hand. The Colts inability to run the ball consistently is probably a factor. In order for the Colts to continue to pick up first downs and run the clock, Peyton has to play and pass the ball.
Their running game hasn't come around to the point where Sorgi can come in and pick up first downs running a conservative game plan.
Another thing is the coaches and the front office know what they need to know about Sorgi. He has been around for good while in the system, and he hasn't embarrased himself when he has gotten the opportunity to play. He certainly isn't a bad player, but he is a career back up. The Colts don't gain anything by getting him out there except for the protection from a possible serious hit on Manning in mop up time.
Of course that is reason enough to get the Maytag repairman in there.

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written by DZ, October 13, 2009

Lots to cover:
@ Biscutt I think he's a better receiver than he was before. In 2006 his receiving DVOA was -2.1%. Now he's around +14%. He's getting better. I don't see that Brown has more 'upside' than Addai. The line fell apart in November 2007. Until that happened, Addai was a rocket. When the line is fixed, you'll see him excel again.

@Dave...It's hard to blame the front office, since 2007, they've drafted a ton of O-line men and a new RB. Coaching...maybe. The backs look talented. There's just no where to run.

@Nacho...Sos hincha de River? Te goleamos, Che! VAMOS ROJO, VAMOS! As far as Sori goes, there's nothing to see, Indy knows what he is. Painter can't play without making both other two QBs ineligible to return. He won't see action this year. He should just be glad he has an NFL job.

The Colts are careful with Manning late. When he does throw it's usually shorter stuff. Check his YPA throughout the game Monday...it steadily dropped as the game got out of reach.

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written by DZ, October 13, 2009

One more thought Biscutt...the fact that Brown is getting end of game carries with the Colts up big should HELP his YPC, not hurt it. The Colts have long been a better second half run team. The fact that they are running the same with Brown taking the lighter end of the load should say something

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written by DemondSanders, October 13, 2009

I remember having the same discussion with DZ about Houston last year. I told him Houston would finish strong, they were 3-7 at the time. They ended up .500. It's just what they do.

Although I'll admit 9 or 10 wins seems like a stretch... you can't count them out, though.

Ed Johnson has been cut.
written by Cass, October 13, 2009

http://twitter.com/ADAM_SCHEFTER

He apparently didn't learn from his mistakes.

I am now depressed.

Cheer up, Cass
written by Bob M, October 13, 2009

The timing is about as good as it could be for a thing like this. We're 5-0 heading into a bye, giving Teerlink two weeks to work the new rotation. And if there is immediate fall-off, yes Steven Jackson is good, but the Rams in general bite. So a weaker DL interior is not fatal. Call it three weeks to get fully up to speed.

Maybe Pitcock is available.

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written by Willy Duer, October 13, 2009

Addai's first two runs Sunday were poor, and I recall one against Miami where he turned a 10 yard gain into 2. Otherwise he has been fine. And he is much better at blocking and as a receiver.

That said, regardless of what the stats say, I prefer Brown. I like his style better, he runs harder, and he makes decisions quicker. Three years from now, I think he will have been a much more valuable player for us than the first 3 years of Addai.

No insult to Addai, of course. I just think Brown is more talented. But obviously, for either to go anywhere, the line needs to improve. I see signs that it is happening. It's just not an every down thing yet.

This is why some of the play calling in the 2nd half of the past 2 games has annoyed me. They need to practice a bit if they're going to get better.