For Better and Worse

The 2009 Season is just days away, and it's time to take stock of the Colts to see whether this year's team should be better or worse than last year's. For the purposes of this exercise, I'm comparing the team to the START of last season. That means things that happened during the year (like Addai getting hurt) don't factor in.

OFFENSE

QB-BETTER

How are the 2009 Colts better than the 2008 Colts at QB? Manning is 100%. He's clearly in zone this preseason and starts '09 light years ahead of where he was at the start of last year.

RB-BETTER

Brown is a dramatic upgrade over Rhodes, though Simpson is a downgrade from a healthy Mike Hart. That's obviously not as important.

WR-WORSE

This is actually a close call. Wayne is a year older (that's bad). Gonzo is too (that's good). So the question is if Harrison last year is better than Collie this year. Yes. Without question. Garcon is back with another year's experience so that's good.

TE-BETTER

Clark is settling into his prime, but Robinson, Tamme, and Santi have all had a year in the system. The TE corps is poised for a huge year.

O-LINE-BETTER

This is tough. Johnson is a major downgrade from last year's Ugoh. Lilja is a major upgrade from the revolving door at guard. Jeff Saturday is finally healthy after a camp injury made for a rough season. Pollack should be a year better. Diem is the same. All in all, the line should be at least a little better than it was at the start of last season. Let's hope so.

DEFENSE

D-LINE-SAME

For all the talk about the improvement at the D-tackle situation, the line is basically the same as it was last year at this time. Remember that Ed Johnson wasn't cut until a week into the season. So three of the four starters are the same, only we've added a year of age to Freeney and Mathis. The D-line is better than what it was at the END of last season, but not necessarily at the beginning.

LBs-BETTER

When two of last year's projected starters barely make the roster this year, you know you've gotten a lot better. Session struggled early in replacing Hagler, but made the necessary adjustments and is poised for a big year. Brackett is a year older, but Wheeler should be no worse (and hopefully much better) than Keiaho.

SECONDARY-WORSE

But not by much. The same four guys are starting, but injuries are an issue. Sanders and Hayden are dinged up now, and Marlin Jackson is coming off a major knee injury. It's the same excellent group, but it's only fair to assume the injuries have slowed them at least a little.

SPECIAL TEAMS

K-WORSE

AV is coming off of major surgery and still isn't 100%.

P-WORSE

McAfee looks like he could be a keeper and might prove better than Hunter Smith, but for now, it's only fair to downgrade him for being a rookie with no experience holding.

RETURN GAME-SAME

Same worthless crap as always. If TJ Rushing is healthy and has the job, I'll grade it as better. If not, it'll be a season long game of "Guess who we all pray won't fumble"

COACHING STAFF-WORSE

You don't lose a Hall of Fame coach and get better. I like Caldwell, but he has to prove himself.

Also, I am personally terrified that Larry Coyer will go blitz happy and ruin the season. My confidence level in him has plummeted after watching ineffectual blitz after ineffectual blitz in the preseason. I hate blitzes, especially on third and long.

OVERALL-BETTER

Upgrades to the LB corps, the running backs, and the O-line outweigh slight drops to the WRs, secondary, and special teams units. The areas where this team is worse, it isn't necessarily much worse, and the areas where it is better, it is significantly better. Last year's team was an 8 win club led by one of the best QBs in history. It won 12 games. This year's team is a 10 win team lead by one of the greatest QBs in history who is healthy to start the season.

That's reason enough to hope.

Comments (18) Add Comment

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...out of respect for Coach D
written by Doug England, September 07, 2009

It has always been somewhat of a misnomer that under Coach Dungy, the Colts were intentionally undersized at defensive tackle. The truth is that an incredible tempest of circumstances has conspired to having the Colts have to play 255 pounders in the middle.

Therefore, I understand it is the genius of Coach Dungy that he has managed to have the defense be as effective as it has been. (This is especially true in points allowed, the most important stat for a defense anyway.)

However, if I have to sit through another season of 15 play ten minute drives that result in field goals, while Peyton twiddles his thumbs on the sidelines, I'll go crazy.

I'm for anything that gives the Colts more offensive poccessions, even if it means giving up more big plays to the opposition. (I reserve the right to call for Coach Coyer's lynching if this turns out to be fools gold.)

...
written by DZ, September 07, 2009

Point taken. Personally, I think the solution to the defense was already displayed in 2005, the end of 2006, and 2007.

Good DTs + Tampa 2= Great D

Blitzes are a sucker's solution. I think we've fixed what was wrong. This D will be better no matter what. I'm worried that Coyer will over tinker.

...
written by smonroe, September 07, 2009

Couldn't agree more with Mr. England's last paragraph above. I jokingly once stated we should give the opponent the ball on our own 35 every series and try to hold them to FGs. Please, no 10 minute, convert 3-9, drives for the Jags on Sunday!

...
written by DZ, September 07, 2009

The Colts have been great at stopping third and longs. The problem with the 3rd down stop rate has been too many 3rd and shorts thanks to 6 yard gains on first down runs. 3rd and long has not been bad at all.

The best way to avoid giving up a 3rd and 9 first down is to NOT BLITZ. Blitzing will destroy the team on third and long.

...
written by DZ, September 07, 2009

For the record the Colts DVOA on defense (negative is good) by down last year looks like this:

1st down: 3.3% (20th)
2nd down: 2.5% (12th)
3rd down: -9.4% (8th)

It's true they gave up an insane third down conversion rate, but that's only because they were so bad on the early downs.

Great Stat Work DZ
written by smonroe, September 07, 2009

Between the article and the DVOA analysis you're making me feel real good about Sunday. Of course, I felt real good last year at this time too. With a healthy 18, we're as good as anyone in the league.

...
written by cjester27, September 07, 2009

Article re: Bob Sanders' return in 5 weeks, per the Canadian Press:
http://www.google.com/hostedne...0LN7ca6bw

(NOTE: Was last on here last season, nice update to website!!)

...
written by DZ, September 07, 2009

Thanks...what the article actually said is that they expect him back WITHIN 5 weeks, not in five weeks.

Big difference! We are hoping he plays next week if not this one...

See-More
written by Doug England, September 07, 2009

Any chance this scenario plays out... Seymore refuses to show up for the Raiders. The Pats send him that five day letter threatening to put him on that reserve list for the year. Seymore is so pissed he ignores it. So the Pats end up without Seymore's services for this year, and they don't get the Radier's first round draft pick?

If this did play out as I described, I want to immediately make Richard Seymore a Classic Colt.

RE: Colts 3rd down DVOA
written by jaredtaskin, September 07, 2009

DZ,

As a FO reader, you should know that the fact that Colts were so much better defensively is a bad thing. They are subject to the third down rebound effect, in which third down performance can be expected to regress closer to the level of play on first and second down. We can only hope the improvements they've made can make up for this.

...
written by Derek, September 07, 2009

Blitzes work on a 3-3-5 twist defense quite well, and as the unknown. Or in good situations where you have athletic D-Line that drop back and send the LBs/CBs in to keep the blockers guessing. Other than that, you should let your DB/LBs shut the pass down, and get to the QB with 4.

I must say, I would always still like to see a 46 in Indy, if we had the personnel. Just to see opposing QBs get the crap knocked out of them.

...
written by DZ, September 07, 2009

I know that dramatic improvement on third down usually portends regression, but I'm not sure what gradual improvement from 1st to 2nd to 3rd means other than "fewer running plays".

I wish I had the numbers from previous seasons to compare, but I suspect the Colts' have general trend this way over recent years.

Just a guess.

...
written by shake n bake, September 07, 2009

Also the outsiders have admitted that the system doesn't know that Peyton Manning does not regress on 3rd down like mere mortal quarterbacks.

QB's
written by J.C., September 08, 2009

I know how you guys always say Brady doesn't scare you late in games the way Big Ben does.

Well I was listening to 790 the Ticket yesterday while shining my chrome 19's and the host, I don't know his name he's only once a week, was taking calls from fans of all teams across the NFL and asking them each ten questions.

Over/Under for W's and L's for their team?
Biggest surprise in the NFL?
Coach most likely to get fired?
Blah
Blah
Blah

The final question was 'Manning, Brady, Roethlisberger, down a touchdown with a minute left to go in the Bowl, who do you give the ball to?'

Through about an hour of Armoraling my car, every single answer was 'Brady'.

Even the Colt fan that called in, and prefaced it with 'It kills me to say it.....Brady'

Also, when he hung up he was made fun of for his hick ass accent for a good 10 minutes.

-1

...
written by DZ, September 08, 2009

Of course. It's a radio call in show. Everyone says what they've been programed to say.

Truth is that Manning has more comeback wins than Brady.

Truth is their passer rating in the playoffs is separated by 2 whole points.

Truth is that Manning had two more playoff deciding drives ruined by a kicker.

Some Pats fan calling a show and doing a Woody Harrleson impression and pretending he's from Indiana isn't evidence.

Please
written by coltsfanawalt, September 09, 2009

Don't confuse people with the truth.

hick ass accent
written by seanv, September 09, 2009

Funny Boston guy, you forget, that Beantown's accent is one of the most obnoxious and annoying on the planet, just a different flip of the tongue, that's all.