Objects in Mirror

In case you haven't noticed, the gap between the top and the middle isn't very wide in the NFL. Last week, we published our NFL predicted standings. In the AFC, we predicted a straight chalk slate of New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, and San Diego to go a combined 50-14. This week, they were playing four teams that we projected would go a combined 27-37.

All four teams won.

No story right? Until you realize that three of the four played at home, and the four of them won by a combined total of 10 points. The biggest margin of victory was the Chargers who won by four, but didn't score the game winning TD until the final minute.

So what can we learn from the opening weekend in the AFC?

The old guard is there for a reason. They know how to win close games. Teams like Jacksonville, Oakland, and Buffalo have to rise up and take wins. The big dogs aren't going to hand them out.
New England fans should get used to more games like last night. We've seen it in Indianapolis. Teams aren't going to let you fly up and down the field. Prepare for long mind numbing drives with lots of 5 yard dump throws, while you hope your defense can hold up. Teams don't want to "die quick".
Can anyone even tell the difference between the Bills and Texans anymore? I swear McKelvin must be Sage Rosenfels younger brother or something. He was superbad.
Wins are wins. The old cliche that style points don't matter in the NFL is totally valid. Anyone still down about the Colts 2 point win over Jacksonville needed only to watch last night's games to feel better.
Pittsburgh could easily lay claim to being the best team in the conference if they hadn't lost Polamalu. Now it could be Baltimore. None of the other three powers were "impressive" at all. That's the point though. Impressive doesn't count. Reason #578 why the NFL destroys college football (by the way Irish and Buckeyes, enjoy the rest of your utterly meaningless games. Your seasons are destroy and it's only week 2! The NCAA where every game counts...unless you lose, then none of them do!)
Of the AFC teams that made the playoffs last year, only Baltimore won by double digits...and their game was tied with less than three minutes to play. The only legitimate blowout in the conference was the Jets whipping the Texans.

Don't listen to Vegas. Don't listen to stupid pundits. Every game is going to be close.

Get you antacid ready. It's going to be a long season.

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written by psvirsky, September 15, 2009

Great points. By the end of a late night yesterday, I was thinking about how all the top AFC teams had really close games. Some of them seemed more explainable than others though. The Pats didn't look great but the Bills felt a bit fluky in that game to me. Oakland and SD however felt like a legitimate close game. The Chargers didn't play well, LDT doesn't look great, and Oakland played a surprisingly level headed game. The Steelers look good but the running game could be a problem and Polamalu is a big loss. Ravens looked good but not great and the Chiefs could be pretty bad this year. We had a close game, but we always do against the Jags.

If I had to do an AFC power rankings after this week, based on gut feel of where the teams are at this moment (with a dash of homerism), my top 5 would probably be something like Steelers, Colts, Pats, Ravens, Titans. The Chargers were really disappointing in my eyes.

It's early
written by Westside-Rob, September 15, 2009

For all of those teams it's early. The good teams don't play much in pre-season so they aren't likely to be as sharp early. The bad teams play their starters more in the pre-season and likely get a slight edge early in the season because of it.

NE was HANDED that game (they put them selves in position to be handed it, but they were handed it all the same) so of the teams discussed I think you'd tend to be the most worried about them but then again you'd also expect them to be the rustiest with Brady coming back from injury. Anyone else see Brady try to blow off Kramer or Kolber or whoever the sideline reporter was after the game. Stop and answer a question Tom, I use to think Tom had class but I'm starting to wonder.

I suspect by mid-season barring more major injuries the 6 power teams of the AFC and I do hesitantly include the Chargers will be in full form and soundly beating the bad teams again.

If the Raiders had a QB and some WR's who could catch they could be scary good. But alas they have the Cryptkeeper running the show drafting players with immense physical skills and little to no football skills. I'd love to have that Zach Miller. That guy is good.

Is Russell one of the top 64 QBs in the league?
written by MR, September 15, 2009

J. Russell12/302086.91247.6

Passing Breakdown (I'm not sure which 2 passes were Gradkowski but I'm pretty sure they were to backs)
Z. Miller69616.00306
L. Murphy48721.81579
D. McFadden22512.50134
T. Stewart11313.00131
M. Bush144.0041
Team1422516.115721

Four completed passes to wide receivers, countless balls gunned over people's heads at 100 mph. I don't know how you win like that, every drive stalls, you have no confidence for any 3rd down that can't be run.

The big 4th down play aside, it was like watching highlights of Shaq shooting free throws, if he was actually worse at shooting free throws.

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written by psvirsky, September 15, 2009

Right, the top teams will probably round into shape and look better as the season goes on. That's why they're the top teams, it's knowing how to win whether you're rusty or not.

As for blowing off the sideline reporter, I don't know how much that speaks to class. It always seems like a hassle to deal with them, and yes I understand most everyone does it anyway, but considering the big comeback they just completed, you can't blame him for being excited and wanting to get in the locker room to celebrate with the team. It wasn't a great move but it wasn't horrible either in my opinion.

The memory of 2003
written by dmstorm22, September 15, 2009

will always be with me, when the Bills beat the Pats 31-0. That is how meaningful week one is.

However, I'll agree, that SD and NE fans should be worried. SD-OAK felt like a legitimately close and good game. BUF-NE saw NE win against bad team (BUF started 5 new O-Lineman, and there was no pass rush) in a miracle way. IND won a game that was nowhere as close as that score indicated. PIT played like PIT in 2008. They found a way. For all the people righting "Tom Brady is a god" stories about yesterday, Ben was as impressive, if not more, against Tennessee.

My Top 5 AFC
1.) PIT
2.) IND
3.) BAL
4.) NE
5.) TEN
6.) SD

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written by Willy Duer, September 15, 2009

I remember that last year's Jump To Conclusions Week led me to make several contrarian but entirely correct predictions. I was so eager to learn about some of the teams I had different predictions for this year too... but I learned nothing.

I have absolutely no idea who's going to do what this year.

Baltimore? Great offense, but it was the Chiefs. Philadelphia? 38 points, but 5 turnovers from Delhomme and now McNabb, who was a question mark anyway, is hurt. New Orleans? Great, but it was the Lions.

(I had been hoping to decide whether I thought the Ravens were for real or due for a giant slide back like I expect from Miami; whether the Eagles would be a DVOA superstar and win the division or an old and shallow team with issues well beyond McNabb's Vick paranoia; and whether the Saints could become a clone of the 2004 Colts or if they'd just be a scary 8-8 team)

This season is shaping up to be really fun. But yes, also very stressful. One of these days the Colts will just stomp on the Jags' necks at home and avoid forcing the D to win it at the end.