Oehser and Kravitz defend Polian

Due to recent criticism (and I'm not going to link to the trainwreck article that started it) of Polian, some fans have been up in arms about the team cutting Taylor and Marcus Howard. People have begun to question whether Polian is losing his touch in the draft. There's one massive problem with that claim.

Polian drafted all the players who beat out the players he cut.

Do you think Polian cares if Tyjuan Hagler (who he drafted) beats out Phillip Wheeler (who he drafted) for a starting spot? Polian has egg on his face (right now) over Ugoh, but he also drafted Charlie Johnson who replaced him. The Colts haven't had to erase draft mistakes with bargain bin free agents or casts off from other teams. They've replaced draft picks with draft picks. There are only 5 players on the Colts that have been drafted by other clubs. Two of those were last minute pick ups this weekend. The truth is that when a 6th rounder or a UFA beats out a 3rd rounder, it makes Polian look smart in the long run. When that player becomes a star, everyone says, "Wow! Polian hit on a 6th round pick!". They forget that it means that he whiffed on the 3rd round pick in the same draft. That's the nature of the draft. After the first round, the difference in talent level starts to fall off precipitously. In the end, a 4th rounder and a UFA aren't that far apart. We only perceive there to be a big difference. It doesn't matter that Polain has airmailed almost every 3rd round pick for a decade. He's been money in other rounds.

The only way that Bill Polian could be losing his touch is if the Colts were somehow worse than they used to be. They haven't been signing free agents, so virtually everyone on the team was drafted, or signed as a UFA by Polian. So as long as the team is still elite, Polian can't possibly be getting worse at the draft. A big part of the problem is that fans are paying too much attention to the draft and the preseason. They are falling in love with players before they've ever played a meaningful down. We dream about what a big DT like Taylor could do, and then feel betrayed when he doesn't make the team. It's creating false crises that don't have much to do with wins and losses on Sunday. This is why I hate the offseason. There is simply too much talk about players we know nothing about. In the case of a guy like Marcus Howard, we thought we did know something, and still got blindsided by his departure.

When it comes to the head hauncho, it's fair to attack the Ugoh pick. They traded up to take him. The book on him at the time was that he didn't seem to care about football. Many in the draft media questioned the pick. They questioned his heart and motor. Looks like the book was right. That's one pick, though. It was a big one, but it could have been worse. The Colts did get two years of starting football out of Ugoh, and he's still on the roster, and still might start before the year is up. That's a lot of production for a total bust. There are plenty of first and second round picks who don't even produce that much. There's still time for Ugoh to pull a Rob Morris, though I don't know if he has the guts to do it.

The lesson here is this: we can't have unrealistic dreams about draft picks and then cry when they don't work out. I've been accused of taking the fun out of the preseason by complaining about this before, but this is why. It's not that fans dream or imagine too much. It's that they freak out when their dreams don't come to fruition.

Jerraud Powers was one of the most criticized picks of this past draft. Looks like he might start opening day.

Terrance Taylor was universally lauded. To date, no one has even signed him to a practice squad.

That's the NFL draft for you.

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Totally Agree
written by Westside-Rob, September 08, 2009

You and I had a big discussion on Ugoh and the decision to not draft an OT this past draft, but I totally agree that even those decisions do not indicate Polian is losing his touch. If anything the number of Rookie Free Agents on this team indicate a level of skill few others can muster.

See
written by Josh K., September 08, 2009

This is why 18 to 88 is usually a good read.

Fan + Some Objectivity = Interesting, Useful Take

(Fan + Bias/Agenda = Crass Homerism (with Regular Homerism being just fine because it allows for some objectivity, but Crass Homerism being hard for even other fans to take))

(Non-fan + Objectivity = Reporter)

(Non-fan + Bias/Agenda = Troll)

Cody Glenn at FB?
written by Westside-Rob, September 08, 2009

Don't know that anyone has stated this, but I noticed that Cody Glenn the LB the Colts picked up this weekend played RB at Nebraska until his Senior year when he moved to LB. Wonder if the Colts have any plans to try him out at FB? Caldwell mentioned somewhere that they love his "versatility", but didn't specifically say they were planning to try him at FB, but with the Colt's history of playing defensive players at FB I think it could be a possibility. I think Foster made the team primarily because he showed some promise as a FB. I'm not sure he would have beaten out Grady and Taylor if it weren't for that little something extra he brings the team on offense. If Cody could surpass Foster I wonder if they might look for someone to take Foster's spot...

...
written by DZ, September 08, 2009

Wow, nice catch Rob. Foster was the only I saw at FB this preseason, and he had a stupid holding penalty.

Caldwell described Glenn as a big hitter, but the way the Colts have gone all black opps on us probably means he's new #3 WR.

Blame the coaches not Polian for Ugoh
written by Doug England, September 08, 2009

First of all, Charlie Johnson did not beat Tony Ugoh out by outplaying him at left tackle. The decision was made sometime in the offseason, by coaches huddled together in some dark, dank room watching film. And they stuck to this decision, despite Johnson being hurt and playing very little in training camp and pre-season. (And sucking when he did play.) Fine. Ugoh was given the starting job as an untested rookie when Glenn unexpectedly retired.

Here is the rub for me. I've heard all this stuff about Ugoh's great talent, but that he lacks heart and he is not tough enough, and that his motor doesn't run fast enough. And how Johnson is a "battler" and someone you'd want in a foxhole with you.

Frankly, I think this is a bunch of crap. If you want to tell me that a player is not willing to play hurt, I get that. But I just do not believe that any man that plays the line in an NFL game is not tough. And once he is out there, that he is not going to battle.

I have not read a single source that says Johnson has more talent than Ugoh. In fact, it is quite the contrary. We also heard all off-season about all the hard work Ugoh was putting in. Yet, now we are lead to believe that a vastly more talented, hard working player, was beaten out by an inferior, INJURED player! I'm sorry, but if coaches have a talented player that is willing to work hard, and they can't make him a productive performer, something is terribly wrong. So don't tell me that Charlie Johnson is starting ahead of Tony Ugoh, because his is a "Battler". Tell me he is starting because he is a better football player. Otherwise, coach up the better player, and get him to play up to his talent.

I can't even imagine the brutality that is involved in being a lineman in the NFL. There are just some men who are mentally and physically strong enough to be good at it. But I doubt very few players love it. Instead, they are willing to go through incredible hardships and physical ordeals to be part of a team. (And to get paid a lot of money for playing a game.)

If the good Lord ever chooses a path for me that lands me in a foxhole, I hope He also sees fit to stick me in there with the best soldier. (and not some gung ho idiot that is happy to be there.)

...
written by DZ, September 08, 2009

Excellent rant. I share your sympathies.

If Ugoh was only not starting because of his attitude, I'd be pitching a fit. Unfortunately, what I saw of him this preseason was horrible.

I agree 100% that CJ didn't win the job.
I still think Ugoh gets it back because CJ will be a disaster.

What I won't say is that Ugoh deserves to be playing right now because from everything I've seen, he's a mess too.

It wouldn't have taken much for Ugoh to win back his job. To this point, he's failed to do even that.

well done
written by psvirsky, September 08, 2009

A big part of the problem is that fans are paying too much attention to the draft and the preseason. They are falling in love with players before they've ever played a meaningful down. It's creating false crises that don't have much to do with wins and losses on Sunday. This is why I hate the offseason. There is simply too much talk about players we know nothing about.

This is perfect. Even knowing that this is a problem, I still fall into the trap from time to time. When all you do in the offseason is read the IndyStar and don't pay much attention, this isn't a problem. But with all the blogs and all the people scouring for information, it's easy to get excited about every single draft pick. I love how much you can follow sports now but the offseason is something that might be better off without blogs (as much as I still read them religiously).

...
written by DZ, September 08, 2009

Totally. That's why I got pissy when we were criticized for talking about other things in the offseason.

It's good to take a break, clear your head and think about other sports. It actually makes your analysis MORE accurate. The more we just pour over the same players for 5 months (even though nothing has happened), the crazier we get as fans.

I miss the Colts as much as anyone in the offseason, but sometimes over-analyzing it makes it worse...not better.

Brock
written by lefpsyd, September 08, 2009

To your point about getting to excited about players in the offseason, I remember reading one of Raheem Brock's twitter messages that read something like this: "RT @someone @RaheemBrock how does [random rookie defender] look in training camp? (don't know...I don't pay attn til thr on the team)." Basically he's saying it doesn't matter how they look until preseason is done and the team is set. I like that attitude.

Let's all work to remind ourselves of this next April/May after the draft.
written by Westside-Rob, September 08, 2009

I know I got suckered into it this year. I was totally convinced that Taylor and Howard were not only going to make the team but were going to be serious contributors. My problem is that I just don't like many other sports anymore. The Pacers and IU problems (on and off the court) have totally ruined my interest in basketball. Same with Racing. I've never been into baseball, hockey, or soccer. And the one "sport" other than football I find fascinating is curling (go figure) but I can't play that or really follow that very well from Indy...besides there is no curling in the Summer. I follow the Colts religiously in the Offseason because I have no other sports outlet. It's sad but it is what it is. Maybe I should just spend the offseason drunk...

But why is he a mess?
written by Doug England, September 08, 2009

I agree about Ugoh's play, but why is he a mess? IF he has talent, and IF he really is working hard, WHY is he not playing better?

From reading between the lines of some of Phil B's posts over the last few years (and yes, I do realize the danger in trying to do that) I believe it is a personality thing. What I mean by that is that Ugoh is extremely quiet and reserved... not at all the Alpha Male type personality that is generally found in NFL locker rooms. I realize that is not a revelation, but I truly believe he is not perceived as being "macho" enough for the coaches. (And maybe his fellow linemen as well.)

But Glenn was somewhat of a gentle giant himself, albeit one with top ten in the draft talent. Ugoh, despite what the Colts gave up to draft him, was taken in the second round.

Still, I think he has talent to be harvested. And I don't care what his personality is... not everyone is Tarzan beating his chest. And the coaches right now are failing the Colts, because they are not adapting to what Ugoh needs to get him to play to his potential.

What you say would be true if...
written by Westside-Rob, September 08, 2009

Ugoh were a High School or College player. But the last time I checked he was a grown man, and I don't see how you can put his failures on the coaches. Coaches fail when they systematically fail. The Colts and Mudd have a great job over the years of getting the most out of the talent available but an individual that fails within that group seems to be the failure of that man not his coach.

It's possible that maybe Mudd has a blind spot with Ugoh that is affecting the situation, but it seems more likely that the problem lies with Ugoh himself. If you read Kuharsky's piece earlier this summer when he was asking around the league about Ugoh, everyone seemed to be in on the fact that Ugoh takes plays off. Loses focus at key times, and just doesn't play with the same heart and effort level that those around him do. I don't know how you can pin that on the coaches...

Ugoh
written by tjbindy, September 08, 2009

Ugoh came into a touch situation when he came to the colts. But it was also an opportunity that MANY people would have loved. The opportunity to start for a Super Bowl Quality team straight out of college. The job was his to lose . . .. and he did. Partially through play, and partially due to injuries. Now the job is his to gain. Frankly; just about everybody is hoping that he takes the initiative and goes out there and wins the job back. If he doesn't care . . .cut him and move on. It is time for Ugoh to put up; or shut up. There are a couple of other players that should be in this same position in my opinion .. . but that is just my own opinion.

As for Polian . .. he is an absolute master at what he does. He makes judgement calls and assess talent as well as personality of people who are at that age where some are developed, some are still developing, and some will never develop. And that inclues both mentally and physically. He has done an absolutely incredible job of matching that up with the needs of the Colts. I can't think of anybody I would rather have in that position tham Bill Polian.

...
written by DZ, September 08, 2009

At the time he was drafted, the 'experts' claimed that Ugoh lacked passion for football. Polian claimed it was because Ugoh sat out spring football to participate in track (he was a champion shot putter). Right from the start, before he ever came to the Colts, his work ethic and heart were questioned. It seems like this is still the case.

Normally, I don't give a crap why a guy sucks. A lack of heart or a lack of talent, it's all the same. If a guy can't play, he can't play. From what I've seen in the preseason, Ugoh seems to have regressed.

Something isn't working, and it may be that the 'no heart' accusations are being foster by the coaches who don't want the blame for why he isn't working out...I don't know that I buy that, but it's certainly possible.

Ultimately, I lay the blame on Polian. He went against the book, and it seems like he got burnt. Of course, it's worked out for him scores of other times (Freeney, Sanders, Wayne), so it's no big thing.

That is why I capitalized IF
written by Doug England, September 08, 2009

The reason I am putting it on the coaches is that all during the off season, we kept getting reports on how hard Ugoh was working. (Even Saturday said it.) So if these reports are to be believed, Ugoh is a talented, hard working player that has regressed in his play from his rookie year. How can this be?

I don't think Mudd and the other coaches have a blind spot for Ugoh, I think they have a prejudice. And that prejudice is that he doesn't play with the "macho passion" that they played with.

Well, all players are not perfect. I wish that Ughoh played with more passion, and he was first team all-pro. But he is who he is. And that is apparently someone who has talent and is willing in his own way to work hard.

So I am back to IF he has the most talent of all the Colts tackles currently on the roster, and IF he is willing to work hard... why is he not playing better. A great coach should be able to adapt to individual players and get the best performance out of them.

Here, here!
written by JTBLA, September 08, 2009

Great article. Can't say I knew much about Howard prior to the Colts drafting him, but after reading fan comments on various Colts sites, you would have though the Colts had drafted a combination of Lawrence Taylor, Reggie White and Dwight Freeney. Then when I watched him, I thought, "why the fuss?"

Bottom line is that the people making these decisions are pros at the top of their profession. They can be wrong on occasion but know more about talent evaluation than the rest of us combined.

...
written by J.C., September 08, 2009

How many TD's do you have Brady throwing this year?

Something inane.

...
written by DZ, September 08, 2009

25-30. About what he does most years.

OK is it coming today????
written by Westside-Rob, September 09, 2009

Season starts tomorrow so is the prediction post coming today or tomorrow? I've been waiting for this since the update of the 2008 predictions post at the end of the season...

...
written by DZ, September 09, 2009

It was supposed to come out today, but Demond (who is doing the bulk of the work, just to be sure it's actually funny), dropped his lap top last night and bombed out his harddrive. I'm going to bust my butt to pick up the slack today. So, maybe tonight, probably tomorrow.

Great Article!
written by coltsfanawalt, September 09, 2009

Like psvirsky said above, I have fallen into this trap from time to time. Too much emphasis on things we can't understand fully during a time when we as football fans are bored.

I think you guys have had the right idea to have other interests to write about during the time we tend to obsess about matters we can't grasp.

We are a bit silly as fans. We get upset when the team doesn't draft a guy that we are sure would be the next MVP based on our extensive scouting work of, umm, reading a magazine. Probably a magazine that we will later criticize for bias or someting in another of their articles. But now we take their pre-draft analysis on a guy and how that appeals to us as the gospel above our team's scouts. Mind you, if Matt Millen ran this organization, I'd understand our concern. However, we've done very well thanks to Polian.

Te same is true at cut time. I enjoy training camp each year. It's a great family trip, and a chance to meet some players and make some memories. However, judging the players' merit from the lofty perch of the stands is just not thorough enough. We need at some point to decide that our organization has done and will continue to do a better job at drafting and fielding the best players than we ever could.

Thanks for this great read. Please post it again at draft time. And again during training camp. And again during the roster cuts week.

...
written by J.A., September 09, 2009

People need to understand, also, that drafting good players is not a supernatural skill that one is born with or isn't. Drafting involves a whole lot of factors that are studied over, and thought through all year long. It is a skill, but a management skill. It's somewhat like a science, as opposed to an art. There is a whole staff working on next year's draft right now. A good drafting team, and a good drafting executive, don't just "lose the touch", or stop having that ability for no good reason.