What We Learned this Preseason

In some sense, almost nothing else on this team matters. We already saw last year that as long as Manning is healthy, he doesn't need an O-line or run game to win. He was sharp all preseason, and is clearly on a mission.

2. The offensive line will be a problem all year.

Charlie Johnson is the left tackle. I'm still not ok with that sentence. The line gave up 5 sacks of Manning in barely one full game of work. Tony Ugoh could have won the starting job back, but he was terrible. His play last night was rough to say the least, although there were problems all over the line, to be fair. This was the biggest offseason issue for the Colts this year. Lilja is back and apparently healthy, so that's a plus. Still, there is some question as to whether this is a Super Bowl quality O line.

3. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

Worried that there would be too much change in Indy? If the preseason is any indication, there hasn't been. The 2009 preseason looked pretty much exactly like the last 5 before it. The Colts played one good game, one ok game, and two eye bleeders. This is encouraging to me because it says that Caldwell didn't feel it necessary to come out and "prove" himself in the preseason. He's comfortable enough to let the team go do what it always has done.

4. Addai is healthy/Brown is good

The best hope for the run game is that the backs are better than we had last year. Honestly though, it won't matter much if the line doesn't improve. Still, expect big plays in the passing game from the pair of them.

5. The Defense is not deep

The Colts have an excellent starting unit. Did you notice, however, how little competition there was for starting jobs? There is a big gap between the first and second units in Horsetown. The Colts D looked bad in the preseason because the 11 starters (or even 9 of them) never played together. The Colts have a few competent backups (Bullitt, perhaps Powers, Howard), but by and large this team depends on it's stars on defense. If the first unit stays healthy, it will be very good. If not, it will be a replay of last year.

6. Special teams will always be a problem in Indianapolis

We've talked about this at length, but the Colts don't value special teams play. They don't invest picks and players on special teams (and they shouldn't). People love to kill the coaching, but the Colts simply aren't deep enough to provide the kind of top level athletes that make for a great special teams unit. I expect the Colts to be about what they've always been on ST...weak. And you know what? It won't matter. Still, McAfee has been encouraging at times, so there's always some hope for improvement there.

7. Jim Sorgi is bullet-proof

As impressive as Curtis Painter was this preseason, he couldn't unseat Jim Sorgi, who though he played just a half of football, did enough to hang onto the #2 QB job. Sorgi managed to lead a TD drive (and a missed FG drive) in just a half. Painter never got going last night. Sorgi is better right now, and will be the #2. Let's pray it doesn't matter.

8. The TEs are in for a big year

Manning threw heavily to his TEs this preseason, and for all the talk about Collie and Garcon, it was the big guys that made most of the plays. Jacob Tamme led the club with 11 catches, followed by 9 for Dallas Clark. Petrowski, Robinson and Santi had 8 more between them. In comparison, The Colts top four WRs only had 19 catches all preseason. Especially with line troubles, expect the Colts to go two TEs a lot, and for Manning to throw a lot of short routes to releasing TEs out of the backfield to deal with the pressure.

All in all, I'm pleased with how things went this preseason. The Colts looked like the same disheveled mess they always do, though not nearly as awful as they did last August. No one new got hurt (other than Hayden who seems to be ok). AV is back, though Bob Sanders is not. As we all know from 2006, Bob can miss the whole year if he wants. Just so long as he shows up in January, he's worth it. Bullitt is a capable backup (one of the few we have).

2009 will come down to the same thing that 2007 and 2008 came down to: Injuries. If the defense stays healthy, it will be good. If it doesn't, it won't. Sometimes, things really aren't complicated.

Manning will be Manning. Freeney will be Freeney. Keep the other guys on the field, and this team will win its 12-14 games. In the end, the O-line will be the issue to watch all season.

It'll tell us how far this team can go.

Comments (26) Add Comment

Subscribe to this comment's feed

Sometimes, it really is that simple.
written by Cass, September 04, 2009

I'm going to go ahead and mark us down for a #3 seed in the playoffs, and we can deal with whether we win those playoff games as they come.

Agree with about everything
written by Westside Rob, September 04, 2009

I guess I'm a little upset with Polian not addressing the OT position in the offseason. They claim to have made the decision in the offseason to demote Ugoh so why not bring in some kind of insurance. Polian better be scanning the waiver wire closely for any kind of OT help. I'm not expecting a starter obviously but someone who could give us some kind of depth maybe.... I'm not even confident in Ugoh as a backup now. I realize that Thomas was a total disaster at LG but even on plays when the guard's play wasn't critical to Ugoh's performance Ugoh was awful. I saw one decent run block from him the whole 1st half. Most of the time he was getting blown off the line. You have to question his heart and desire at this point. We know he has the physical skills, but something is missing upstairs (desire, football IQ, something). I guess the one thing to take out is that the Steelers won the SuperBowl last year and according to my resident Steeler fan employee their O-Line wasn't very good.

I think there is probably more depth on Defense than what you state above. Most of what we saw last night was 3rd, 4th string guys mostly waiver wire material. Do we have any stars on our 3rd and 4th string? Of course not. The reality is we should have enough depth at each position to survive some injuries. D-Line depth looks to be better than last year. We have plenty of depth in the secondary to get through a couple injuries. And we talk all the time about how LB play (other than Brackett) isn't all that critical as long as they can tackle. Theoretically LB should be our deepest area as we have 2 former starters provisionally tabbed as backups (though I have a strong suspicion Kieaho is getting cut), but that continues to seem like the weakest area on the defense.

One thing I'm most concerned about on Special teams is the kickoffs. I didn't notice if AV kicked off last night. I know McAffee did at least one kickoff and the ball was relatively low and landed at the 15. Can AV even kickoff effectively? If not would the Colts keep Andrus on the Active Roster? It wasn't too many years ago that the Colts kept 3 kickers because of kickoffs...

People I know should be cut: Josh Thomas(horrible), Jamie Thomas(more horrible), Senn(constantly in the wrong gap last night and missed tons of tackles), Matthews, Mendenhall, McDermott, Justice, and Simpson(he's not a good RB or returner). There are obviously many more but those guys stood out as bad, and probably not even worth putting on the PS even if we could.

...
written by LukeM, September 04, 2009

"In the end, the O-line will be the issue to watch all season. It'll tell us how far this team can go."

Debbie Downer! Way to destroy all my hope.

...
written by DZ, September 04, 2009

Here's my response to the Polian/OT issue:

I'm not sure what he could have done this offseason to fix it. There really weren't any OTs available where the Colts drafted. Had there been one, they might have taken somebody. They needed DTs just as badly, right?

Free agency isn't the place to pick up a good OT. They also didn't count on CJ getting hurt. I guess they felt that they could make him work if they coached him up enough, but then he missed so much time due to injury.

It's a problem, no question. There's no solving it until next year's draft.

...
written by JamRock, September 04, 2009

I'm not sure what he could have done this offseason to fix it. There really weren't any OTs available where the Colts drafted. Had there been one, they might have taken somebody. They needed DTs just as badly, right?

Eben Britton was there. Maybe a bit of a reach but using revisionists history he'd be more of an asset at this point than donald brown.

...
written by DZ, September 04, 2009

By rule, the Colts do not reach for need. Britton was taken 13 picks later, and do we even know if he's any good?

If the Colts hadn't taken Brown, they'd be dead. They want/need to have a two back offense, and if the second back was Mike Hart, we'd be in huge trouble right now.

I'd rather have Brown and Johnson than Britton and Hart.

Ever heard of a trade?
written by Westside-Rob, September 04, 2009

I disagree that there wasn't much that they could do. They could have traded up or down. They traded up to get Ugoh? Britton may not pan out but there is no less certainty there than drafting someone next year. I agree they needed RB help and DT help. But they re-signed EJ and AJ, Muir look better now with an offseason with the Colts under their belts, so maybe DT wasn't as big of a need as we thought. It doesn't look like Moala is going to be a huge contributor anyway. There were quite a few decent RB's taken in taken in the 2nd round and later, and with an existing Addai we have the luxury of not having to spend a 1st round pick on a RB. So it wouldn't have to be Addai and Hart. It could have been Addai, Rashard Lewis(taken in round 4 or something), and Hart.

I think overall the guys Polian picked will be OK. Brown will be good, Moala might be OK, Power's is probably a keeper, Taylor???, Painter is the future Sorgi, but I'm not convinced this was his best draft in terms of what the Colts needed to win over the next 2-3 years. As you keep saying, you can't win a Super Bowl without a decent LT. Well clearly they suspected that Ugoh was not that player late last year. They had to know CJ could not become that player either. They failed to address the issue in the draft or FA. What other conclusion can you come to but that Polian probably made a mistake...I'm not trying to indicte the guy. He's earned more than a few mulligans, I'm just saying this year even though he drafted contributors the decision to not make a move to find a true starting LT is troubling.

It also usually takes LT's about 2-3 years to really thrive. So by not drafting one this year he's committing Peyton's blindside to at least 3-4 more seasons of uncertainty...considering he likely is only playing another 5-6 years that doesn't make me feel too good...

...
written by DZ, September 04, 2009

I'm just saying that considering the other massive needs at DT and RB, trading up for an OT wouldn't have been the best move. They did trade up, BTW, to get Moala. And we all praised the move at the time.

I said a few months ago that if Ugoh was our biggest problem on the line, that we'd be ok. It now looks like he's gone backwards.

I hate rewriting history. He clearly made a mistake by drafting Ugoh. I'm not sure the fix for that mistake was in the cards this year. This team needed a lot of help. Don't forget that the 2008 team wasn't good.

The only way out was to take the best available players at each opportunity and raise the overall talent level of the team.

Polian did that. Did he make a mistake? Yeah, in 2007. It'll take time to undo that.

Mistakes
written by Westside-Rob, September 04, 2009

I'm not going to criticize Polian for taking Ugoh. In fact most of us felt after year 1 that he had been a great pick up. You can't look that deep into a man's heart to know that after a couple years he's going to start "mailing it in".

I also agree it's going to take time to overcome the fact that Ugoh hasn't panned out. I'm just saying that we had to start that process this year not next. If the Colts already knew that this was inevitable which it seems they did. Then they had to address it somehow in the 2009 draft or Free Agency(unlikely I know but I mention it because it was in fact an option).

Many of us (me being one of them) talked about our needs being DT and LT. Well we didn't know though the Colts must have known that they were going to re-sign Ed Johnson. So for me that would have elevated LT to 1A priority. Knowing what we seem to know now about Ugoh that 1A should have gone to SUPER 1A with a bullet.

We could have either "reached" for Britton or traded up just a few picks for Oher (who I really liked). Still gotten a solid contributing RB in the 2nd or 3rd, and still taken everyone else that we got less whatever 2009 picks we'd have to give up to move up. Yes I also wanted a DT but once they resigned EJ and with the development of AJ and Muir. I don't think drafting Moala was as critical as we felt at the time because we didn't know everything the Colts had to have known at the time. That's where I think the mistake was truly made...Ugoh wasn't a mistake he was the right player taken at the right time for the right price that had the right skills but the wrong heart and he hasn't worked out. That's not a mistake that just something that didn't work out...

Where we really disagree...
written by Westside-Rob, September 04, 2009

is whether considering EJ's pending resigning whether the team really had glaring needs at DT and RB. You've been one of Addai's biggest supporters yet you'd say that we need another 1st round RB talent to work in tandem with him, even though it risks not having a decent LT which will limit how much any RB can contribute no matter what their talent level?

I love that we have Brown. I think he has immense potential with the Colts. However without a decent LT his everyone else's potential on the offense is stymied.

Having said all of that. I'm more optomistic about CJ than most. I don't think he'll ever be as good at Tarik or maybe even as good as Ugoh was his rookie year. But I think he'll be serviceable, and with a little assistance from TE's and RB's we'll be OK. We'd be a lot better with a top flight LT but we'll be better than we were last year from an O-Line standpoint.

"his AND everyone's"
written by Westside-Rob, September 04, 2009

and by the way I hate the comment "engine" on this site. It takes forever to post, and I've had at least 3 or 4 posts that seemed to go but then don't show up...

Any chance they are going to offer a mobile view anytime soon? Load times on this site on the iPhone are brutal.

...
written by DZ, September 04, 2009

Re: commenting...to my knowledge, there are no plans to go mobile. They just launched their main page two days ago...

Re: the draft
I think the Colts were better off getting an elite RB this year than they would trading up to draft another LT. The price of that trade up was likely at least next year's number one. That would be for a player who may or may not even solve the problem this year.

Going into the draft, I didn't even have O line anywhere on my need board. That's because I still believed in Ugoh. Now I don't, but I also don't believe in CJ, but apparently the coaching staff does.

FO has shown that over all line quality is a bigger factor in success than any one player on the O line. There simply was nothing the Colts could do this year to make this line better right now.

The team is clearly in 'win now' mode based on the signing of Saturday. So, in my mind the question is:
Would drafting a LT (and trading up to do it) over Brown help the team more right now than going with CJ/Ugoh?

I can't say that it does. It might help the team more next year or in two years, but there might not even be football in two years, so who knows.

I'd rather draft a truly elite skill player in the first round than a question mark. That's why I'd rather have Brown.

Pre-Season
written by tjbindy, September 04, 2009

I am not convinced that CJ is the answer at Left Tackle. I am however convinced that Ugoh isn't. Who knows; maybe he is tired of all the rehab and that has affected his desire.

I am also not convinced that the Colts are gonna sit tight after all teams cut rosters this week-end. Maybe the Colts will bring in a few offensive linemen to audition. With the number of players that got significant playing time last year on the O-Line; I wonder if the coaching staff was expecting some of the linemen to come to camp a little better prepared. The Colts have shown that they are not afraid of shifting people around .. . so maybe they just figured that one of these guys would decide they wanted to take the job and would work extra hard to accomplish it.

...
written by DZ, September 04, 2009

The Colts might not sit tight, but the answer to the LT problem is not going to found this weekend.

CJ and Ugoh are both going to be better than whatever option the Colts pull off the wire.

If working hard was all it took to be an NFL LT, Charlie Johnson would be an all-pro. It takes work and talent and intellect. I don't know that we have one player with all three.

If the line can be four good guys and a mediocre LT, we can be successful. If it's one or two good guys, and three mediocre players, the Super Bowl simply won't be a realistic expectation.

Who is good then...
written by Westside-Rob, September 04, 2009

I mean who on the line is good?
Saturday: Definitely was elite but can he still be elite this late in his career?
Lilja: Also was elite before he missed all of last year with injury. Can he return to form?
Diem: Definitely Not in my book. I felt his play was more problematic last year than Ugoh's. Perhaps it was because he was playing next to rookie Pollack?
Pollack: Well he is suppose to have the potential based on draft position but I'm skeptical so far.
Johnson/Ugoh: Obviously not elite or good.

The year we won the Super Bowl:
Saturday, Lilja, Scott, and Glenn all Elite to above average. Diem was solid to above average when healthy.

If your assessment is correct and I believe it is, then we should not have high expectations for this season, particularly in the playoffs.

...
written by DZ, September 04, 2009

I think you're right. I think this team has to make major line improvements to actually be a SB team. Diem HAS to play to a 2006 level. Pollack HAS to improve. If those two things happen, then maybe...we'll see.

This is why we were so crushed when it looked like Saturday was going to walk.

My hope is that even with the line questions, the team will still rush the ball better (not great, just better). CJ did run block effectively last year, so while pass pro will be an issue all year, maybe they'll run better.

It's a problem. It's probably a huge problem. The question is how much better is the team at other key spots than last year.

This team has a very thin margin for error.

That we both agree on!
written by Westside-Rob, September 04, 2009

Clearly we both have our own opinions and reasoning on what should or could have been done in the 2009 draft but we both agree that the line is THE biggest question mark on this team. I agree we should be better than last year but I'm not sure that's saying much as they were pretty awful last year. Any normal QB would have been horrible on this team last year.

...
written by DZ, September 04, 2009

Oh, without question. I think this team is a year away to be honest. I know I "predicted" them to win it all, but what do you expect me to say? I think the O line isn't ready yet. Still, Pitt won it with a crap line (and a very different kind of QB), so anything is possible.

Ultimately the playoffs are a crap shoot, so if you get in, you can win if the matchups break right.

Still, gun to my head, I bet against the Oline being good enough.

I can see a scenario where it is good enough, but I don't think it's the most likely outcome.

Considering
written by dmstorm22, September 04, 2009

the Colts rarely run over LT, Johnson should be adequate. He can keep Peyton Manning upright, and the Colts have good blocking TE depth.

...
written by DZ, September 04, 2009

Why would you say they rarely run over LT? Do you have any stats for that?

...
written by DZ, September 04, 2009

According to http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

The Colts ran over Left end 15% of the time. That's pretty much in perfect harmony with the other slots. It goes 15% Left end, 14% LT, 47% middle, 10% RT, 14% RE.

So they go left more than right, and more than 25% of the time. I wouldn't call that "rarely".

Don Banks of SI has Colts missing the playoffs
written by JTBLA, September 04, 2009

According to Banks, the Jets are a playoff team, the Colts are not:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/don_banks/09/03/2009.predictions/index.html

It just seems to me
written by dmstorm22, September 04, 2009

that the Colts rarely run successfully over LT. I may be wrong, but weren't the stretch play usually over the right side? Forgive me for not doing really any research for those statements, DZ, you know I am usually better than that.

My overall point is that, compared to other teams, LT is less important to the Colts.

QB Hits
written by kailes2872, September 05, 2009

Maybe 18 is sacked 18-25 times this year versus 14-18 in years past. His release and internal clock are such that he won't end up sacked 40 times. His completion % will probably be 63-65 instead of 65 to 67 because it will be tough gettng the time for the deep ball to develop. I am worried sick about the camera panning back after a long incompletion and Manning buried into the turf with a season ending shoulder injury or something to that effect.

Nothing to do about it at this point. The Texans have Mario and a pass rushing rookie. Jacksonwille is in year two of Harvey and Groves(?), The titans have KVB and others so it will be tough in the six division games. Out of division, You have Thomas and Mayo from NE, Miami has a physical D with Taylor rushing and the Bills have Maybin the rookie who has gotten into the backfield a few times in the preseason. Suggs with the Ravens is a concern - as far as the NFC West and the Broncos, no one really stands out. Plenty of reasons to hold the breath this year but at least no Steeler, Charger, or Vikings D to contend with this year.

...
written by DZ, September 05, 2009

Only four teams ran around Left end more than the Colts last year. The Colts were middle of the pack (14th-16th) in runs off left tackle.

On average, the Colts run left more than most teams, not less.

...
written by DemondSanders, September 05, 2009

I'm somewhat unsure about what will happen this season. Which means the Colts will probably dominate.

One obvious point: In order to do anything of note this season they first have to beat the Titans and win the South.