Chess Match

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Chess Match

Written by Nate Dunlevy

Wednesday, 27 January 2010 06:29

(Note: tip to Garrison for the post idea, and my apologies to Paul Kuharksy who mentioned last night that he's going to do a post with a similar theme later this week. I swear I didn't steal the idea from you!)

Some reporters noted with awe that Peyton Manning watched three year old game film to prepare for last week's matchup against Rex Ryan.

That's nothing. I'm betting he goes back ten years this time.

New Orleans defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has bounced around quite a bit over the past decade, but his first run in with Peyton Manning occurred in the 1999 playoffs. Overall, he hasn't had a lot of success against Peyton Manning, but his first game against the Colts' quarterback falls high on list of Most Painful Losses. Here's the full chart of the game where Manning took Gregg Williams on, either as a head coach or defensive coordinator.

	Year	Points	C	A	yards	TD	INT	W/L
Titans DC	1999	16 points	19	42	227	0	0	L
Bills HC	2001	42 points	23	29	421	4	2	W
Bills HC	2001	30 points	17	27	199	1	0	W
Bills HC	2003	17 points	26	42	229	0	0	W
Redskins DC	2006	36 points	25	35	342	4	0	W
Jags DC	2008	21 points	15	29	216	1	2	L
Jags DC	2008	24 points	29	34	364	3	0	W
Totals			154	238	1998	13	4	5-2

As you can see, Manning has played well against Williams designed defenses, posting a passer rating of 102.2. Williams hasn't always had the most talented defenses, I suppose, but he's offered little resistance to Manning. Peyton will be sure to watch tape of every game he's ever played against Williams, despite the fact that I'm not sure he wants to see Jerome Pathon and E.G. Green ever again. I seriously doubt Williams will be able to do anything to surprise Manning. The Saints are going to have to work on out executing the Colts offense.

Good luck with that.

The Saints defense is a middle of the pack kind of defense this season, ranking 14th overall in the FO rankings. They are better against the pass (9th) than the run (29th). Their ranking in conventional NFL stats is crazy low, but what matters is that they are 3rd in interceptions, 3rd in defensive passer rating, and have allowed the 5th fewest passing touchdowns. The Saints have one dominant rusher (DE Will Smith who has 13 sacks). No other Saint has more than 5.5, but 12 different players have at least half a sack. The Saints are clearly a team that relies on blitz pressure in order to get to the quarter back. They also have 11 different players with at least one interception, though the key is Safety Darren Sharper who had 9 picks on the season.

Much like the matchup with Rex Ryan, Williams is going to have to work hard to disguise his blitzes and coverages in order to show Manning something he has never seen before. Considering that this isn't Williams first trip to the Super Bowl, I seriously doubt he's going to be able to invent something completely new just for Manning. He's coached in too many big games and key spots in order to whip something out of his bag of tricks that he's been saving for this moment. Whatever he had, he would have used last week against the Vikings or perhaps back in the 1999 Super Bowl against the Rams.

He's faced him plenty of times. There is lots of tape to watch.

Gregg Williams is a known commodity to Peyton Manning.

Mad God have mercy on his soul.

Comments (16) Add Comment

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written by Mark_V, January 27, 2010

My God have mercy on his soul

Very nice way to end this post

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written by C Biscuit, January 27, 2010

The only thing I can think of that the Saints D have going for them is an active, intelligent free safety in Sharper. The defenses that give Manning trouble (to the extent that happens) are ones that feature dominant safeties. R. Harrison (Pats), Polamalu (Steelers), Reed (Ravens) have given Manning more to think about and more susceptible to mistakes.

That said, it won't be nearly enough. The more I think about this matchup the better I feel. I also think that NO may have a tendency to think their goal has been reached. The Colts had a few years of heartbreak to steel their resolve to win the Super Bowl the 1st time there. Not sure if NO will have the same mindset. Perhaps its just the MSM but everyone is so happy for the Saints but the job's not finished.

@ C Biscuit
written by BP, January 27, 2010

I agree with your point about Sharper being a potential hazard for Peyton. I did a quick look at past Sharper teams that have faced Manning-led Colts teams and there's not much to go on. Only three games (2008 Vikes, and 2004 & 2000 Green Bay teams). The Colts won the last two of those games and Sharper did not record any interceptions.

In my limited viewings of Sharper, he seems to an instinctive safety who breaks on the ball well, but perhaps is over-aggressive at times. Manning may be able to use Sharper's aggressiveness against him to create big plays. If Sharper's smart, he'll be watching film of those safeties you mention above in games against 18.

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written by jmarsh, January 27, 2010

I think if the Colts can manage to avoid turnovers, they should earn a victory. NO has been very good at forcing turnovers this year however. I think the onus is more on the ball carriers not fumbling than Manning throwing picks.

I agree with C Biscuit's point about good safeties causing Manning problems. It doesn't worry me though because Sharper is a good solid veteran, but he's nowhere near the class of a Reed or Polamalu.

Power outage...
written by Doug England, January 27, 2010

Am I the only one really concerned about the health of Powers?

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written by DemondSanders, January 27, 2010

Powers injury is huge. I am assuming he'll play because I refuse to imagine otherwise.

I'm liking this matchup more and more
written by Scott K, January 27, 2010

I don't know if this is a great matchup for the Colts, but it's certainly not a bad one. Go from playing the #1 D to the #1 O.

When they play against a high scoring team with a suspect defense that relies on turnovers, don't they usually win those games? Think of something like 2005 Bengals shootout (45-37) or the no punt playoff game in KC. No one can keep up with Peyton in these kinds of shootouts. You need a team that can play good enough defense to disrupt some of their timing and execution, while also having the offense that can produce 20+ pts and limit the number of possessions in the game.

Crunched the Gregg Williams numbers the other night as well and liked what I saw. Keep in mind the loss to the Jags early last year was when Manning was still finding his way back from surgery. Still led the team down the field for a late TD and put them in position to win. 3 games with 340+ yards and 3+ TDs against Williams' defenses. I'm liking numbers like that in this game against NO.

When you talk about the pass defense for the Saints, keep in mind they have played Matt Stafford (rookie in his 1st start), Kevin Kolb (1st career start), Trent Edwards (sucks), Mark Sanchez (rookie in his 4th start), Eli Manning (immediately after a foot injury), Chad Henne (3rd career start), Matt Ryan (good QB though he played better as a rookie), Jake Delhomme (dreadful season), Marc Bulger (terrible year again, but didn't play bad in this one), Josh Freeman (rookie in his 3rd start), Tom Brady (ok they got him pretty good this game), Jason Campbell (gave up over 300 yards to him and should have lost game), Chris Redman (another close win and good game against their D by a weak QB), Tony Romo (he tore them up in their 1st loss), Josh Freeman again (rookie made some big plays to win the game), Matt Moore (irrelevant week 17 game).

Saints fans will point to their performances over Warner and Favre in the postseason, QBs with 5 MVPs and 5 SB starts between them. Fair point. Though Manning is better than both, and this game will not be played in the Superdome, the only venue where Brees/Sean Payton have registered a playoff victory in. Manning gets the ball out quicker than anyone and won't take as many hits as they did. Despite all the fumbles and bad plays by Minnesota, they piled up almost 500 yards and may have won on a FG without Favre's pass that they teach you in high school not to throw. I'm confident Indy can move the ball well through the air and won't turn it over more than twice, if that.

Btw, Colts average 6 ppg more on the road than at home. And yes, I discarded weeks 16-17 and used the two playoff games instead to come up with that.

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written by DZ, January 27, 2010

@ Scott...dang you.

My post this afternoon is going to cover the Saints D vs different skill levels of QBs.

Thanks for beating me to the punch!

DB's...
written by Crizzle, January 27, 2010

Anyone have any info on the DB the Colts brought up form the PS? Darrick Brown (6'4"/200). Think they IR'ed AV to make the move?

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written by DZ, January 27, 2010

You would have to think. I haven't gotten word yet, but I know they worked out Delta O'Neil last week. They are perilously thin at DB, and against the Saints, you need lots of bodies.

Surely they know by know if AV would be ready to kick a 50+ yarder. That's the only reason to keep him on the roster. You only use him if you need a 52 yard field goal to end the half or game.

Yoiu may want to discount the Jags game
written by Robert I., January 27, 2010

Manning was still gimpy from off season knee surgery and the two INT's came off of DPI's that were never called. Manning was owning that defense and he did it on one leg.

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written by Raheem, January 27, 2010

The thing I've noticed is I think Williams' defense is much different with the Saints than it ever was before. I don't recall him ever being a big blitzer in the past. With Jacksonville, I think JDR has influence on the defense and they've always played a vanilla scheme, so that's probably why he left there. The Saints have Vilma and Sharper, who are the type of leaders you need in a complex scheme. And with Buffalo, they never seemed that agressive either.

Williams is calling his defense like Rex Ryan, more than he is like Williams defenses I remember in the past, I guess is what I'm trying to say. I don't think their past encounters will tell Peyton as much as Peyton watching film on the Saints' defenses this year will. JMO as someone who has watched a lot of the Saints this year.

Kudos to Scott K
written by Dr. Ben, January 27, 2010

Impressive work! Don't you have a job?

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written by Chris B, January 29, 2010

Williams has always been blitz-heavy, when he has had the back end coverage to support it. I watched him close while living in DC when he was the coordinator there-- local radio personality Doc Walker called him 'The Animal Trainer'. Had a secondary with Springs, Taylor, Smoot, Rogers, and Landry (before he turned into a burnt piece of toast), and they were mad aggressive with attacking blitz schemes. Especially in the A and B gaps. I would think Devan is probably going to be tested heavy early to see if he can hold up against overload pressure.