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Extending the Metaphor
Written by Nate Dunlevy   
Tuesday, 12 January 2010 06:17

(Note:  Sorry for the posting problems earlier)

Yesterday, a reader felt my comparison between the 2005 Steelers and 2009 Ravens was incomplete because I didn't balance it with a comparison between the 2005 and 2009 Colts.

Before we look at the statistics, there are a couple of caveats:

1.  The 2005 Colts entered the postseason reeling emotionally. The 2009 Colts don't.

2.  The 2005 Colts rested far more than the 2009 Colts, but the 2009 Colts played far worse when they did rest.  That means the 2005 team was deeper, but also that the stats from 2009 are more skewed than the 2005 team's numbers.

3. The 2009 Colts were much worse at #2 quarterback than the 2005 Colts.  That will skew the numbers a lot.  Sorgi played very well as the backup, completing 68.9% of his passes, leading 3 TD drives and posting a rating of 99.4.  Painter...um...wore a helmet.  For that reason, I'll only use Manning's stats for the passing totals, not the overall team stats. Still, it does suppress the yards per game and over all DVOA numbers.

OFFENSE:

Points Rush YPG YPC Rush DVOA Pass YPG YPA Manning DVOA Total YPG Turnovers ODVOA
2005 439 106.4 3.7 8.7% 234.4 8.3 40.5% 364.4 19 24.9%
2009 416 80.9 3.5 -3.0% 281.2 7.9 38.1% 363.1 24 19.6%

The 2005 Colts were superior in every respect.  There is no way in which the 2009 Colts are a better offense than the 2005 Colts.  Perhaps the one thing that is different is an intangible.  I believe Manning escapes pressure and throws on the move better now than in 2005.  The results of the Steelers game moved Manning to improve that part of his game, and the Colts no longer depend on a clean pocket like they did then.  In all other respects, 2005 was the superior club on offense.

DEFENSE:

PPG Rush YPG YPC Rush DVOA Pass YPG Net YPA Pass DVOA Total D YPG Turnovers DDVOA
2005 15.4 110.1 4.4 -6.85% 196.9 5.7 -16.7% 307.1 31 -12.2%
2009 19.2 126.5 4.3 0.00% 212.7 5.5 3.4% 339.2 26 1.8%

Again, it's hard to argue the 2009 is much superior to the 2005 squad. They do allow fewer yards per pass and rush by a hair.  Most of the per game difference is because the 2009 offense isn't nearly as good, and the D is on the field for more plays than in 2005.

So, if we are making comparisons back to 2005, take no comfort in thinking that 'we're better' than we were then.  They aren't.

They are worse...in virtually every way.

Now the good news:  That means nothing about this weekend's game other than we can't get over confident.  Numbers don't do a great job capturing the 2009 Colts.  They've been banged up and strategically rested all year.  I think the real team is crazy good and is about to debut on Saturday night.

Comments (21)Add Comment
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written by C Biscuit, January 12, 2010
I can't help but feel that this year's defense is a better all-around unit. The offense was much better in '05 - we jumped all over the opposition and forced them to play catch-up, ie. pass A LOT. We were great at playing from in front and capitalizing on team's mistakes. I contend that we were still vulnerable to rushing attacks but teams were not able to commit to the run since our offense was kicking so much ass. Perhaps we can find out how many rushing attempts against us there were in each year.
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written by Guy., January 12, 2010
If the defense is on the field longer in '09 than in '05, then wouldn't they be giving up MORE yards because of it, not less? If I read you right, you are saying that fact lessens the disparity in yards allowed. I think it probably widens the gap, making the '09 defense that much better than the '05 defense. And, not a small difference, we don't have Mike Doss blowing coverages in '09.
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written by ColtsHeadBen, January 12, 2010
There's one big difference between then and now: Peyton's got a ring. The playoff pressure is now old hat to him and the team, and they've been there and done that before, which helps the veteran leadership.
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written by DZ, January 12, 2010
The 2005 Colts faced 953 total plays. 398 rushes.

The 2009 Colts faced 1084 total plays 467 rushes.
MSM says
written by BDiddy, January 12, 2010
The Colts are reeling emotionally from giving up in such a messy way.

They are wrong of course, but perception is reality.
damn
written by torontocoltsfan, January 12, 2010
that 2005 team was ridiculously good. losing the way they did made the next years team all the more special I guess.
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written by Monkey Business, January 12, 2010
The real difference is that the 05 Colts didn't play more than a handful of plays for more than a month. The 09 Colts played 14 games, and rested for about half of 15 and 16.

Also, Roethlisberger > Flacco, and if anything the MSM slight is giving this team a nasty edge.
#3
written by Bob M, January 12, 2010
Painter comment in #3 reminds me of a favorite line in the movie Ratatouille, said my a man to a rat as he proposes a partnership: "You know how to cook and I... know how to... appear human."
I think half the team having rings is a big deal
written by Bob M, January 12, 2010
and it shows in the 7 CFB wins this season. The Colts are never out of a game, there is no panic. They might or might not be better than 05 (probably not) but their intangibles make up for it.

100% agreed on Manning throwing on the move and moving around within the pocket.

There were clearly times when the Colts were the best team in football this year, and FWIW, they are probably the healthiest theyve been all year. So potentially they could also be at their best. no guarantees, but better than saying X is limping and Y has a broken hand and Z....

Not thrilled by hanging my hat mostly on intangibles, but not worried about it either.
Hooked on a feeling...
written by Doug England, January 12, 2010
(As I've said before, I'm convinced that the death of Coach Dungy's son emotionally crippled the '05 team.)

But that being said, I just don't think the '09 Peyton will let a game happen like the 2005 Steelers game. Meaning that Peyton will quickly figure out whatever the Ravens throw at him and be able to attack it. (Whereas in 2005, for whatever reason, the offense never got in synch.)
Explanation for 2005
written by Bionicman, January 12, 2010
I've got a theory that may not agree with conventional wisdom, but which I think explains things well:

Every good QB the 2005 Colts faced had a good game against them.The statistics for 2005 Colts defense were inflated by QB injuries, the offense, and an easy schedule. Let's go through it game by game, with games against QB's that were good that season bolded.

Week 1, Ravens, 24-7: The Colts defense first faced Kyle Boller (need I say more?), and after he got injured, they faced Anthony Wright (a journeyman who played 9 games for the Ravens and finished with a 71.7 QB rating).

Week 2, Jaguars, 10-3: The Colts faced Byron Leftwich, who had a pretty good year by his standards (89.3 rating) but wasn't especially good, and mostly managed the game (probably would have finished the season with under 3,000 yards). I'll give the Colts some credit for this, though they got gashed by the run (5.6 YPC).

Week 3, Browns, 13-6: The Colts faced Trent Dilfer and an offense that finished near the bottom of the league in scoring.

Week 4, Titans, 31-10: The 4-12 Titans entire team, including the offense, was weak, and Steve McNair's 82.4 rating on the season helped lead to his release. Still, he had a decent game (28/37, 220, 1 TD, 1 INT).

Week 5, 49ers, 28-3: The Colts faced rookie Alex Smith in his first start, in the year that (according to Football Outsiders) Smith had the single worst season by any QB ever.

Week 6, Rams, 45-28: This is where you start having to pay attention. Marc Bulger and the Rams offense started the game red hot. Bulger was 6/8 with 121 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT, with passes of 36 and 57 yards on TD drives. Steven Jackson had 62 yards and a TD on 8 carries. Then, when Bulger threw an interception, he got injured trying to make the tackle, forcing backup Jamie Martin into the game. At that point, the Rams were leading 17-0. In 2006, Martin threw 24 passes as a backup, then didn't get in a game in 2007-2008 before retiring.

Week 7, Texans, 38-20: David Carr was having one of his typical bad seasons (77.2 rating), and in this game he threw 9 (yes, 9) passes compared to 28 runs, in a game where the Colts never trailed.

Week 9, Patriots, 40-21: Remember this game? The Monday night game where the Colts stomped their long-time nemesis in New England? What you may have forgotten is that Brady had an incredible game, going 22/33 for 265 yards and 3 TD's with no INT's (though he did have a fumble recovered by his team). The reason the Patriots lost was an unbelievable performance by the Colts offense, which dominated so much that Belichick attempted an onside kick in the middle of the third quarter.

Week 10, Texans, 31-17: The Texans actually let Carr pass in this one, but were reminded that he was, in fact, still David Carr.

Week 11, Bengals, 45-37: Do I need to say anything? Carson Palmer (back when he was good) was 25/38, with 335 yards, 2 TD, and 1 INT. The Bengals running backs added 158 yards on 6.6 YPC running.

Week 12, Steelers, 26-7: Colts fans often talk of how well the defense played in this game. Often forgotten is that this was the first game Ben Roethlisberger (17/26, 133 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT) played in after missing 3 games with a concussion. The combination of rust and remaining symptoms could have made the Colts defense look better than they were.

Week 13, Titans, 35-3: McNair was 22/33, 220 yards, no TD or INT, 1 fumble for Colts TD.

Week 14, Jaguars, 26-18: The Jaguars started David Garrard, who went 26/35 for 250 yards and a TD, which in itself isn't great. The kicker is that the Colts had truly insane fumble luck, with tight end Kyle Brady fumbling 3 times in the game, with the Colts recovering twice. Add in a Garrard fumble on a QB sneak that the Colts recovered, and a good offensive performance, and the result was a game where what Football Outsiders would call non-repeatable events made the defense look good.

Week 15, Chargers, 17-26: Most of us remember this. The Chargers came out passing, and dominated the Colts pass defense in the first quarter. Brees finished 22/33, 255 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 1 fumble, though those stats don't show how well the Chargers moved, including an 8 minute drive in the second quarter that ended in a FG.

Week 16, Seahawks, 13-28: The resting of starters makes this game hard to evaluate, though the Seahawks scored 14 points against starters and possibly 7 against some starters. Hasselbeck was 17/21, 168 yards, 2 TD, though again the resting makes it hard to evaluate.

Week 17, Cardinals, 17-13: Josh McCown vs backups. Not much to look at.

Playoffs, Steelers, 18-21: We all remember the result, and most remember the way the Steelers passed all over the Colts in the first quarter. What's forgotten is that Roethlisberger suffered a triceps injury in the second half that limited his throwing. Add in the fact that the Steelers went into a conservative shell after getting a lead, and the take-away is that they could have done even more on offense.

Put it all together. The Colts defense had one good game against a good QB in , against an injured Roethlisberger in Week 12, and we all saw how he did when he was healthy. The Texans were 2-14, the Titans were 4-12, and both had weak offenses. Three teams the Colts faced (Browns, Ravens, 49ers) had utterly abysmal offenses. The starters weren't tested against the best NFC passing team they faced (the Seahawks) due to resting, and they got to face the backup QB for most of the Rams game. Quite simply, a combination of easy opposition (Ravens, Browns, 49ers, Texans and Titans twice), QB injuries (Bulger, Roethlisberger), and dominant performances by the offense (Patriots) made the defense look better than it really was. In truth, against teams that could pass well, it was exposed.
...
written by Ronnell, January 12, 2010
Well, if Nick Harper gets stabbed the night before the game, then we are in big trouble. People forget what a huge factor that was, as Harper limped around and got burnt in the first half. He was not himself.

That, and the fact that the offensive line didn't show up to play, and Howard Mudd decided to try to block Joey Porter with Ryan Lilja. Not sure what Manning's mobility had to do with any of that.
...
written by bubbadeez, January 12, 2010
"Painter...um...wore a helmet. " Barely. I thought his head and helmet were coming off on that sack-fumble-touchdown by the Jets.

Also, something that probably helps (at least emotionally for the younger guys) is a coach on the staff who has led 2 of the biggest comebacks in football history. Frank Reich. Of course that just adds to the other veteran leadership, but has to make the team feel better, in addition to Peyton and the 7 CFB wins this year. If only he can pass some of that magic juice to Painter if tragedy happens.

Bulger didn't get inured trying to make the tackle, it was bad luck. The return was coming to the side of the field he was on, and LBs are coached that if that situation arises, put a good block on the QB to rattle him. He just got REALLY blocked by (i think it was) Brackett.

I still feel better about the whole team this year rather than 2005. I loved the talent that was present in 2005. June, Edge, Marv, Tarik Glenn, the Zombie, Rhodes etc. They were all valuable players that we don't have now. I just think that we have a better 'team' and the team concept this year.
...
written by DemondSanders, January 12, 2010
I like where the Colts and Saints are right now. Nobody (okay that's a relative term) is buying them even though they both won 13 games to start the season.

Don't sleep on them.
...
written by MattW, January 12, 2010
I felt like the Colts got better in the postseason as Marvin's skills declined and Peyton started relying on Wayne and Clark to carry the receiving load. That seemed to really get going in 2006.
...
written by DemondSanders, January 12, 2010
Marvin caught 95 balls for nearly 1400 yards in 2006. His skills didn't actually decline until Joe Addai ran up his backside in 2007 causing the injury that eventually ended his career.

But, to your point, the Colts did get signficantly better once Wayne and Clark entered their prime.
...
written by DemondSanders, January 12, 2010
I know I'm not the only one who still finds himself sitting in a dark room, from time to time, rocking back and forth watching this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dK2RVbzOHQ4
18to88
written by JohnD, January 12, 2010
I would pay big money for an NFL-produced highlight video of Peyton & Marvin. I won't buy cable, I won't buy more than 1 or 2 movies on DVD a year, but I'd pay 3 figures for that.
Let there be catch
written by JohnD, January 12, 2010
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZHaKGDYspE

2:18

Makes you all teary-eyed
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written by DZ, January 13, 2010
@Bionicman

That was one of the best comments ever left here.

Great work
...
written by gizzardfanny, January 13, 2010
To me it's this catch: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C67pGdr4v0g

Love it.

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