Ned Macey: Rationally, I agree with the Super Bowl preview that it is odd that everybody seems to think the Colts are going to win. Emotionally, as a Colts fan, however, I share the consensus opinion and am not particularly worried about this game.
One explanation, which admittedly is a massive cherry-pick, is that the Colts simply haven't lost to this type of opponent in a long time. Since 2004, the only time a healthy Peyton Manning lost to a 4-3 team from outside his division was Week 8 of the 2004 season against Kansas City. I can't remember who was running 3-4 or 4-3 each year back to 2004, but it is roughly 25-30 straight wins.
That's obviously not fair because they've lost five divisional games to 4-3 teams in that time, and it throws out their four losses to 4-3 teams while Manning's knee healed up last year (two were division opponents, so seven total 4-3 losses since Week 8 of 2004).
Still, the point is that the Colts have simply not lost this sort of game in a long time, so it is hard for me to create a feeling for how it will happen. For instance I would have been very concerned against San Diego in the AFC Championship or against Dallas (beat up on IND in 2006) in the SB. The best I can do to get myself back to normal is remember the Chargers game in 2007 without Dwight Freeney, when Philip Rivers and Billy F'ing Volek moved the ball at will.
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The bottom line is Brees lost a pair of games. Manning didn't.