The Vince Young Files, Vol. I: Why the Media Drives
me Insane
04-17-2007
Today on NFL
Live Trey
Wingo of ESPN touted
Jamarcus Russell as "the next Vince
Young". He meant it as a compliment. He's
an idiot.
You may have noticed over the brief lifespan of
18to88.com that we do not think too highly of
Vince Young. Believe it or not, the
reasons go beyond the fact that he plays for
Titans. We at 18to88.com give respect to
competitors of the Colts when they've
earned it. For example, we think highly of
Byron
Leftwich's toughness. We
think Jeff Fischer is one of the top 3 coaches
in the NFL. We think the Houston Texans
wear blue and red uniforms.
We do not however, have any respect for Vince
Young. In fact, if were not for Jeff
Fischer's track record for handling Steve
McNair, we would be dubious of him
ever having a truly decent season. But
Deshawn, you say, he "single-handedly
willed the Titans to 8 wins last year" (quote
from Jeremy, I'm a raging moron, Green from
Scouts Inc. as uttered on his 1st and 15 podcast).
He also made the Pro
Bowl as a rookie! He was Offensive Rookie
of the Year! He's going to be on the cover of
Madden 08! He must be great!
He's not, my friends. He most assuredly is
not.
Let's break down Vince Young's rookie season
rationally, instead of figuring that 'if the
team won, the quarterback must deserve the
credit.'
Good/Great games: 2
Young was solid to good against the NY Giants
and the Buffalo Bills. In his two good
starts Young's stats were: 37/55 (67%), 4
TDs 0 Int, 130 yards rushing 2
TDs. Remarkable numbers sure, but
bear in mind, this happened in 2 of 15 games in
which he played.
Average games: 7
In games in which Young was somewhat solid his
numbers are thus: 96/188 (51%), 5
Tds, 7
ints, 303 yards rushing (43
ypg), 4 touchdowns. The Titans went 3-4
in these games
Poor/Piss poor games: 6
In games in which Young stunk, his numbers
looked like this: 51 for 113 (45%), 3
Tds, 4
ints, 154 yards rushing (30.8
Ypg-I didn't count his one series against
the Jets for this number), 2
TDs. The Titans went 3-2 in these
games. I didn't count the Jets loss as his
fault as he only played one series, but he did
suck during that one series, so it counts as a
bad game.
Other Statistical Methods:
The
Footballoutsiders excellent work on
DPAR (Defense-adjusted Points Above
Replacement) rates Vince Young as the 27th
most effective quarterback. That means that
taking the opposing defense into account, Vince
Young was responsible for only about 8 more
points last year than any old replacement
qb you might want to dig up. On
straight raw PAR, not taking the opposing D into
account,
VY was 33rd. He
generated about one extra
FG last year for the Titans over any
other replacement level QB. These stats
COUNT rushing numbers.
What these numbers tell us:
First off, it tells us that Vince Young was only
really good in two games. Equally
importantly, it shows that Titans had a better
record when Young played worse than when he
played average. In other words, Vince
Young's performance in 13 of the 15 games he
played didn't really make that big a difference
to his team. On the whole season, COUNTING
his best games, he was worth a TOTAL of a field
goal more to his team than just running your
average backup
qb out there. Young was basically
toward the bottom of the league in most every
measurable QB stat except for rushing yards.
And when you throw in the rushing yards....he's
still basically your average NFL second
stringer.
So why the hype? Wins and Losses. The
Titans were expected to be awful. With
Young they won 8 games. If he wasn't the reason,
what was? The answer dumb blind luck (and
some great special teams returns.
Yes, the Titans were not 8-8
because Young willed it to be so; they
were 8-8
because of an insane rate of fumble
recovery. The fine work of
Footballoutsiders has long ago shown that
fumble recovery is essentially completely
random. That is to say, that while FORCING
fumbles is a skill, recovering them is basically
luck. A team should finish reasonable
close to recovering 50% of fumbles. The
Titans however, had a golden
horseshoe up their butt. They fumbled a
sickening 29 times on offense (12 by
VY). They only lost SEVEN (3 by Young).
Bear in mind, this was pure luck on their part.
They should have had at least 7 more turnovers
than they did, but the ball bounced their way.
Incredibly, this luck
occurred on
defense as well. They only forced
19 fumbles but recovered 11 of them. When
you add in 8 returns for touchdowns (punt and
INT), you get the picture of a team that was
lucky and opportunistic and that put up a lot of
points that had NOTHING to do with Vince Young.
Tennessee won some games they should have lost,
but not because Vince Young willed it.
The stats show Vince Young like this:
Completions: 184 Attempts: 357
Yards: 2199 Comp%: 51.5 TDS: 12
INT: 13 Rating: 66.7
Plus 552 yards rushing and 7 TDs
Those are not promising numbers. Vince Young
will be lucky to make the kind of lasting impact
that Mike Vick has had. And yes, Vick sucks too.
Don't buy the Vince Young hype. He wasn't
the Rookie of the Year. He didn't deserve
a Pro Bowl nod. He did not "will the
team to eight wins."
